Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trend on the first day of the week, climbing steadily above the $1,945 mark during the Asian session. It remains close to a one-month high, around $1,952-$1,953, reached on Friday, and looks set to build on its recent recovery from a low point in August when it touched $1,885. However, this upward rally was mainly driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in its September policy meeting, providing support for XAU/USD. In contrast to this, the positive sentiment in the market may restrain bullish investors from making aggressive moves and could limit further gains in gold.

US Jobs Report Favors Gold as Fed Holds Rates Steady

It's worth noting that the most recent monthly jobs report from the United States has created a situation in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. This development is seen as positive news for the gold market. According to the latest report, in August, the US economy added 187,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, but the previous month's numbers were revised down from 187,000 to 157,000. Moreover, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% in July to 3.8% in August, and the yearly wage growth dropped slightly from 4.4% to 4.3%. Hence, this data suggests a less robust job market and could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates.

Thereby, the broad-based US dollar is currently lacking significant support, despite its recent strength, and this is playing in favor of Gold's price. It's a well-known fact that a weaker US dollar tends to stimulate demand for commodities such as Gold since they are denominated in dollars. However, it's crucial to note that the decline in the US dollar is not anticipated to be overly steep because there remains a prevailing belief in the market that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates by another 25 basis points before the year concludes. This expectation is maintaining strong demand for US Treasury bonds and the US Dollar.

Moreover, the positive sentiment in the stock market is exerting a restraining influence on the upward trajectory of the safe-haven precious metal, Gold. This is due to investors demonstrating a clear preference for riskier assets over the traditionally secure haven that Gold represents.

China's Economic Boost and Market Sentiment Impact on Gold

Moreover, China is taking steps to boost its economy by creating a special department to help private businesses and making it simpler for people to borrow money and purchase homes. Meanwhile, because it's a bank holiday in the US and there's no major economic news, investors are feeling more comfortable taking risks in the markets. This means they might not be rushing to buy a lot of Gold at the moment.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Having reached a temporary trough near the $1,935 mark, gold has exhibited a marked uptick in recent trading, making a notable push towards the $1,945.20 threshold. This upward trajectory suggests a revival of the primary bullish momentum, a sentiment further buoyed by the recently observed double bottom pattern. This paves the way for potential ascents, with initial targets set at $1,960, potentially extending to $1,977.25.

Given these dynamics, the prevailing sentiment leans towards a bullish disposition for the day's trading. This stance finds reinforcement in the EMA50's underpinning of the price trajectory. However, it's imperative to note that any inability to sustain levels above $1,945.20 could stall the bullish momentum, leading to potential intraday retracements. For the day, the anticipated trading span is delineated by a support level at $1,935 and resistance at $1,965.

Daily Price Outlook

Having reached a temporary trough near the $1,935 mark, gold has exhibited a marked uptick in recent trading, making a notable push towards the $1,945.20 threshold. This upward trajectory suggests a revival of the primary bullish momentum, a sentiment further buoyed by the recently observed double bottom pattern. This paves the way for potential ascents, with initial targets set at $1,960, potentially extending to $1,977.25.

Given these dynamics, the prevailing sentiment leans towards a bullish disposition for the day's trading. This stance finds reinforcement in the EMA50's underpinning of the price trajectory. However, it's imperative to note that any inability to sustain levels above $1,945.20 could stall the bullish momentum, leading to potential intraday retracements. For the day, the anticipated trading span is delineated by a support level at $1,935 and resistance at $1,965.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1943

Take Profit – 1957

Stop Loss – 1933

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$140/ -$100 

Daily Price Outlook

The price of Gold (XAU/USD) has continued its upward trajectory and gained some further traction after experiencing an uptick to the $1,944 region during the Asian session on Friday. It is currently trading just below the $1,950 level, with little change for the day. Moving on, traders seems hesitant to place any significant position as they eagerly awaiting the release of the highly anticipated monthly employment report from the United States (US), known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. This data, set to be released later in the early North American session, will significantly impact expectations concerning the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next policy move. Consequently, it will determine the short-term direction of the US Dollar and provide substantial momentum for the Gold price.

In the meantime, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future stance on interest rate hikes is hindering the USD from capitalizing on its overnight rebound from a two-week low. Instead, it is acting as a supportive factor for the Gold price. Furthermore, China has implemented several measures to protect its economy and prevent a return to the challenging economic conditions seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. These actions have provided support for the Gold Price, as China is a major consumer of the gold.

Recent U.S. Economic Data and Its Impact on Gold and the U.S. Dollar

It's worth noting that recent U.S. economic data, like the ADP report and the second estimate of Q2 GDP, suggested that the strong U.S. economy might be slowing down. This led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might need to ease its aggressive stance on raising interest rates sooner than expected. However, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Thursday still leaves room for one more small rate increase in 2023, prompting a brief recovery in the U.S. dollar.

On the other hand, the belief that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for a longer time has prevented U.S. Treasury bond yields from dropping significantly from recent highs. This, coupled with generally positive sentiment in U.S. stock futures, is limiting the upward potential for Gold, ahead of important U.S. economic data.

China's Economic Measures and Expectations on Interest Rates Impacting Gold Price

Furthermore, China has taken several steps to protect its economy from COVID-like setbacks, which has provided some stability to the Gold Price. China is a significant buyer of gold in the XAU/USD market, and measures like the People's Bank of China's 2.0% reduction in the foreign exchange reserve ratio and various Chinese banks lowering Yuan deposit rates have garnered attention.

Besides this, the general expectation that the trend of raising interest rates might be ending, especially with recent lower inflation numbers in major economies, is supporting Gold buyers. Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings data for August will be crucial in providing a clear direction. Recent data has hinted at a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, suggesting that strong outcomes in these figures are needed to boost the Gold Price.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The gold price failed to surpass the $1,945.20 mark, leading to a downward trajectory with an anticipated initial target at $1,929.00. A breach of this threshold could further drive the price down to $1,913.15.

Given these dynamics, the outlook for upcoming sessions leans bearish. A dip below $1,937.00 could expedite the journey to the projected targets. However, it's essential to note that should the gold price break above $1,945.20, a recovery could ensue, potentially propelling prices towards the $1,960.00 mark. Today's anticipated trading range for gold is set between a support level of $1,925.00 and a resistance level of $1,950.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price failed to surpass the $1,945.20 mark, leading to a downward trajectory with an anticipated initial target at $1,929.00. A breach of this threshold could further drive the price down to $1,913.15.

Given these dynamics, the outlook for upcoming sessions leans bearish. A dip below $1,937.00 could expedite the journey to the projected targets. However, it's essential to note that should the gold price break above $1,945.20, a recovery could ensue, potentially propelling prices towards the $1,960.00 mark. Today's anticipated trading range for gold is set between a support level of $1,925.00 and a resistance level of $1,950.00.

The prevailing trend forecast for the day is bearish.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1936

Take Profit – 1948

Stop Loss – 1930

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$600

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$120/ -$60

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price has effectively reached our anticipated target at $1,945.20 and is presently positioned around this level. It is making efforts to establish a supportive foundation above this mark, with the aim of utilizing it as a pivot for further upward movement in the short-term and intraday perspectives. It is noteworthy that our subsequent positive milestones initiate at $1,960.00, extending onwards to $1,977.25.

Consequently, our outlook remains inclined towards a bullish trajectory in the near future, influenced by the completion of the earlier observed double bottom pattern. It's important to acknowledge that any failure to surpass the $1,945.20 threshold could interrupt the bullish momentum, potentially leading to a downward correction towards $1,929.00 as the initial target, prior to any potential renewed attempt at an upward surge.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Stop 1951

Take Profit – 1970

Stop Loss – 1935

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.19

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1900/ -$1600

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$190/ -$160

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold (XAU/USD) has managed to extend its upward trajectory, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains on the day. During the Asian trading session, gold surged above the $1,945 mark, edging closer to the four-week peak achieved the previous day. This resurgence in XAU/USD suggests a potential continuation of its recovery from its recent low, which touched around $1,885 just last week, signaling a rebound.

However, the factor behind gold's bullish performance is the belief that the Federal Reserve will opt for a pause in its monetary policies come September. Hence, this sentiment has put downward pressure on the US Dollar, thereby providing support for gold prices. Moreover, the impending recession risks are further bolstering the appeal of XAU/USD as a safe-haven asset.

Weaker US Dollar Boosts Gold Prices Amid Disappointing Economic Data

The broad-based US dollar is currently hovering near a two-week low due to disappointing economic data from the United States. This weaker dollar is giving a boost to the price of gold. To break it down, the latest numbers from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) show that only 177,000 jobs were added in the US private sector in August. This is a significant drop from the previous month's 324,000 and fell short of the expected 195,000. Additionally, the second estimate reveals that the US economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from the originally reported 2.4%.

These disappointing figures, combined with a drop in the Consumer Confidence Index from 114.0 to 106.1 in August, are reinforcing the belief in the market that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its interest rate hikes in September. Hence, this expectation is putting downward pressure on US Treasury bond yields, making the USD less attractive and benefiting gold, which doesn't yield interest.

Gold Prices Get Boost Amid Global Economic Concerns and Awaited US Inflation Data

Furthermore, the ongoing concerns about a global economic downturn are giving extra support to the safe-haven precious metal, although a generally positive market sentiment may somewhat limit further gains, at least for now. Traders may also choose to wait on the sidelines before the release of the US PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report is due during the early North American session. Currently, the markets are still considering the possibility of a 25 basis point increase by the US central bank in 2023.

So, the data will shape expectations regarding the Fed's future interest rate decisions. This, in turn, will affect the demand for the US Dollar and add fresh momentum to the price of gold.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The gold price has effectively reached our anticipated target at $1,945.20 and is presently positioned around this level. It is making efforts to establish a supportive foundation above this mark, with the aim of utilizing it as a pivot for further upward movement in the short-term and intraday perspectives. It is noteworthy that our subsequent positive milestones initiate at $1,960.00, extending onwards to $1,977.25.

Consequently, our outlook remains inclined towards a bullish trajectory in the near future, influenced by the completion of the earlier observed double bottom pattern. It's important to acknowledge that any failure to surpass the $1,945.20 threshold could interrupt the bullish momentum, potentially leading to a downward correction towards $1,929.00 as the initial target, prior to any potential renewed attempt at an upward surge.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the weaker US dollar and a sharp drop in US Treasury yields, the Gold Price (XAU/USD) is struggling around $1,935 during early Wednesday in Europe. However, the sluggish movement can be attributed to the probability of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could limit gold's rise. As we all are well aware, the dynamics of gold prices are influenced by several factors. Among these, the movement of interest rates plays a notable role. When interest rates rise, gold's appeal tends to diminish due to its lack of inherent yield-generating capacity.

On the contrary, the escalating tension between the US and China was seen as another key factor that could benefit gold, given its traditional role as a safe-haven asset. On the other hand, the announcement of China’s stimulus measure boosted investors' confidence and contributed to the gold prices gains.

Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal Amidst US-China Tensions

Elsewhere, the growing tension between the US and China will likely played a major role in boosting gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. US Commerce Secretary's recent visit to Beijing highlighted American concerns about business challenges and national security. The talks also covered China's limits on exporting certain materials.

This news could potentially raise demand for gold due to its status as a safe-haven asset amidst escalating US-China tensions and concerns about business disruptions and national security. Moving on, investors are keeping an eye on how the US-China relationship evolves, which could impact the market.

China's Stimulus Measures and Potential Impact on Gold

On the flip side, gold prices might also get a lift from China's new stimulus measures. Over the weekend, Chinese authorities announced a plan to lower the 0.1% tax on stock trading. This move aims to boost the capital market and make investors feel more confident. Alongside this, the China Securities Regulatory Commission is taking steps to support listed companies after the country's stock market dropped to its lowest point in nine months.

These positive actions to stimulate the economy could prevent gold prices from dropping too much. It's worth noting that China is a major consumer of gold globally, adding to the potential impact on gold's value.

Impact of Potential Fed Rate Hikes on Gold Prices

In contrast to this, the chance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates more could limit how much gold prices go up. It's important to know that gold can react to higher interest rates because they makes it less appealing compared to other investments. Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell talked at the Jackson Hole Symposium and hinted about the possibility of more rate hikes. But he also said it would depend on the data they get.

Currently, the market predicts about a 16% chance of a rate hike in the next meeting, down from 20% before. This prediction can lead to some pressure on the US dollar, which in turn affects gold prices.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

Gold's price experienced a robust upward surge yesterday, resulting in a significant breach of our initial target at $1,929.00. This breakthrough has solidified the path for further gains, with the next primary objective projected at $1,945.20.

The persistent influence of the double bottom pattern remains in effect, bolstering the likelihood of continued upward movement. It's important to highlight that a breach below $1,929.00 would exert downward pressure on the price, potentially leading it towards a crucial intraday support level at $1,913.15, before a definitive trend direction is determined. The projected trading range for today spans from $1,925.00 as the support to $1,950.00 as the resistance.

In terms of the anticipated trend for today, a bullish sentiment is expected to prevail.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold's price experienced a robust upward surge yesterday, resulting in a significant breach of our initial target at $1,929.00. This breakthrough has solidified the path for further gains, with the next primary objective projected at $1,945.20.

The persistent influence of the double bottom pattern remains in effect, bolstering the likelihood of continued upward movement. It's important to highlight that a breach below $1,929.00 would exert downward pressure on the price, potentially leading it towards a crucial intraday support level at $1,913.15, before a definitive trend direction is determined. The projected trading range for today spans from $1,925.00 as the support to $1,950.00 as the resistance.

In terms of the anticipated trend for today, a bullish sentiment is expected to prevail.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1938

Take Profit – 1927

Stop Loss – 1946

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1100/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$110/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

The Gold price (XAU/USD) continued its positive momentum for the second day in a row on Tuesday. It reached around $1,925 to $1,926 during the Asian session, marking a two-week high after hitting a similar peak the day before. However, the decrease in US Treasury bond yields is pulling the US Dollar (USD) down from its nearly three-month high. Hence, this is encouraging some investors to move towards Gold. Moreover, there's optimism about China providing more economic support through fiscal and monetary policies, which is also adding to the positive outlook for Gold buyers.

US Dollar Pauses Amid Shifting Yield Dynamics and Rate Hike Speculations

The broad-based US dollar is taking a break from its recent strong position as the yield on the 10-year US government bond, which reflects borrowing costs, pulls back from its highest point since 2007. However, some people are expecting more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could stop the US bond yields and the dollar from falling too much. These expectations got stronger after Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently talked about possibly raising rates to manage inflation. Since the US economy is strong, the Fed might keep lifting rates. This could make investors less eager to heavily invest in gold.

China's Supportive Measures Impacting the Gold Market

Moreover, the Gold market is being influenced by positive expectations of more backing from China. They're considering measures like cutting reserve requirements sooner, which could boost the economy by adding more money. This is crucial for the world's top copper importer. Also, Chinese officials are discussing giving extra financial support to their slower-recovering economy after COVID-19. All these factors together are keeping Gold buyers hopeful and shaping the way the precious metal market is moving.

Key Data Watch: US Reports and China's Impact on Gold

Looking forward, investors will keep an eye on significant US data this week, particularly the jobs report on Friday. This information could strongly influence Gold's movement. Meanwhile, worries about China's economy may continue to boost the safe-haven appeal of Gold and prevent major price drops. Investors are also paying attention to the US Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings data for potential short-term opportunities.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

Gold's valuation demonstrates a pronounced upward momentum, inching closer to our initial projected target of $1,929. Upon closer examination of the trendlines, we observe the formation of a 'double bottom' pattern, which typically serves as a robust bullish signal. This lends significant weight to the likelihood of the price not just reaching, but potentially eclipsing the aforementioned target, setting its sights directly on the subsequent goal of $1,945.20.

Given the current market dynamics and the supportive role of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) - which consistently underpins the price - we maintain an optimistic forecast for gold in the near term. However, it's worth noting that any dip below the $1,913.15 threshold could derail this bullish trajectory, pivoting the market sentiment towards a potential decline. For the day, we anticipate the price to fluctuate between a support level of $1,913 and a resistance cap at $1,945.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold's valuation demonstrates a pronounced upward momentum, inching closer to our initial projected target of $1,929. Upon closer examination of the trendlines, we observe the formation of a 'double bottom' pattern, which typically serves as a robust bullish signal. This lends significant weight to the likelihood of the price not just reaching, but potentially eclipsing the aforementioned target, setting its sights directly on the subsequent goal of $1,945.20.

Given the current market dynamics and the supportive role of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) - which consistently underpins the price - we maintain an optimistic forecast for gold in the near term. However, it's worth noting that any dip below the $1,913.15 threshold could derail this bullish trajectory, pivoting the market sentiment towards a potential decline. For the day, we anticipate the price to fluctuate between a support level of $1,913 and a resistance cap at $1,945.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1920

Take Profit – 1930

Stop Loss – 1912

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1600/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$100/ -$80