Daily Price Outlook

Despite the expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2023 and the prevailing risk-on sentiment, the price of gold (XAU/USD) has continued its upward rally, commencing the new week on a bullish note, hovering around the $1,915 level. This upward trajectory in gold's value seems to be closely tied to the weakening US dollar, which has started the week on a more subdued trajectory, retracting from its peak level since early June. This, in turn, is viewed as a significant factor bolstering the price of gold. A weaker Greenback typically benefits US Dollar-denominated commodities, such as XAU/USD.

As of now, XAU/USD is trading around the $1,916 mark, with gains of slightly less than 0.10% for the day. However, it remains below the peak it reached two weeks ago, recorded last Thursday. Looking ahead, traders appear to be exercising caution and refraining from making substantial bids in anticipation of critical US macroeconomic releases scheduled for this week, with particular attention being given to the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report set to be released on Friday.

Gold Prices Supported by Weaker Dollar, but Fed's Rate Hike Concerns Linger

The broad-based US dollar started the week on a weaker note, stepping back from its highest level since early June. This initially provided support for gold prices (XAU/USD), as commodities like gold often benefit from a weaker dollar. However, the confidence in the gold market is lessened by concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's intentions to raise interest rates as a measure to control inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently made remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, suggesting that the Fed might consider raising interest rates soon. This has made investors cautious, as higher interest rates can make assets like bonds more appealing compared to gold, which does not offer interest yields.

The market is analyzing Powell's statements to imply a potential 25 basis points rate increase by the end of the year. This expectation is boosting US Treasury bond yields and, consequently, lending support to the US dollar. As a result, while the weaker dollar is providing some support to gold prices, the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is preventing traders from making substantial bullish bets on gold. They are awaiting further developments in the Fed's strategy and how it might impact the broader financial landscape before making significant moves in the gold market.

China's Measures and Market Sentiment Impact on Gold

Moreover, the risk-on sentiment, fueled by China's recent measures, could limit gains in gold prices. China announced a reduction in stamp duty on stock trading to boost its market and investor confidence. The levy on stock trades will decrease from 0.1% to 0.05% starting August 28, the first cut since 2008. This supports a positive tone in equity markets and might discourage bullish bets on XAU/USD.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor the gold market. With a quiet Monday in terms of significant US economic news, gold's performance will depend on the US dollar and market sentiment. Expect limited fluctuations until pivotal US data, especially the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, is released.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

Gold prices made an effort to surpass the $1913.15 mark, yet concluded last Friday's session above this threshold. This sustains our optimistic forecast, bolstered by the positive trajectory indicated by the stochastic, as well as the upward pressure provided by the EMA50. Our projected price milestones commence at $1929.00, extending up to $1945.20.

Conversely, it's pivotal to highlight that a dip below the $1913.15 mark could disrupt this bullish outlook, steering the price towards a renewed downtrend.

For today, the anticipated price fluctuation is predicted to oscillate between a support of $1900.00 and a resistance of $1935.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices made an effort to surpass the $1913.15 mark, yet concluded last Friday's session above this threshold. This sustains our optimistic forecast, bolstered by the positive trajectory indicated by the stochastic, as well as the upward pressure provided by the EMA50. Our projected price milestones commence at $1929.00, extending up to $1945.20.

Conversely, it's pivotal to highlight that a dip below the $1913.15 mark could disrupt this bullish outlook, steering the price towards a renewed downtrend.

For today, the anticipated price fluctuation is predicted to oscillate between a support of $1900.00 and a resistance of $1935.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1914

Take Profit – 1930

Stop Loss – 1905

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1600/ -$900

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$160/ -$90

Daily Price Outlook

Despite concerns about a potential deeper global economic downturn, the Gold Price (XaAU/USD) failed to extend its four-day winning streak and saw a decline during the Asian session on Friday. The XAU/USD is trading just below the $1,915 mark, marking a decrease of over 0.15% for the day. However, the reason behind this downward movement can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook. This outlook has led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields and propelled the USD Index (DXY) to its highest level since June 6. Consequently, this has prompted some investors to divert their funds away from Gold.

On the flip side, concerns about severe global economic downturn are still prevalent. This is potentially providing some support to the precious metal, often sought as a safe-haven in times of economic uncertainty. This support may help limit the downside for gold, at least for the time being. Moving on, traders seem cautious to place any strong bid as they eagerly await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Fed's Impact on Gold: Hawkish Stance and Market Dynamics

Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve for clues about interest rate hikes, which greatly affect the US Dollar's short-term value and, in turn, Gold prices. Despite recent sluggish US business activity, Fed officials have hinted at a potential 25 basis points rate increase this year. Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggests rates could stay steady with more hikes possible, ruling out rate cuts for now. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasizes caution, waiting for inflation to drop before discussing rate cuts. Thus, this more hawkish stance has boosted US Treasury bond yields and the USD, pressuring Gold prices lower.

Gold Prices Supported Amid Global Economic Concerns

Across the ocean, worries about a global economic downturn could actually boost the value of precious metals like gold. This is because when the global economy looks shaky, people tend to invest in safe-haven assets like gold. Recently, there have been concerns about China's economy getting worse, and this is making people worried about a possible recession worldwide. These worries are making investors feel less confident, which is making stock markets less strong. Hence, this was seen as a key factor that helped the gold price to limit its losses.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The price of gold is currently experiencing a downward movement, testing the critical support level at $1,913.15. This decline is influenced by the negative reading on the stochastic indicator. It's worth noting that the stochastic indicator is gradually showing signs of positive momentum, which could potentially serve as a catalyst for the resumption of the bullish trend. The immediate targets for this upward movement are set at $1,929.00 and $1,945.20.

As a result, the scenario of a bullish trend remains in play. It's important to highlight that a breach below $1,913.15 would invalidate the anticipated upward movement and potentially lead to further price declines. The expected trading range for the current session is anticipated to be between the support level of $1,900.00 and the resistance level of $1,930.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold is currently experiencing a downward movement, testing the critical support level at $1,913.15. This decline is influenced by the negative reading on the stochastic indicator. It's worth noting that the stochastic indicator is gradually showing signs of positive momentum, which could potentially serve as a catalyst for the resumption of the bullish trend. The immediate targets for this upward movement are set at $1,929.00 and $1,945.20.

As a result, the scenario of a bullish trend remains in play. It's important to highlight that a breach below $1,913.15 would invalidate the anticipated upward movement and potentially lead to further price declines. The expected trading range for the current session is anticipated to be between the support level of $1,900.00 and the resistance level of $1,930.00.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1919

Take Profit – 1905

Stop Loss – 1930

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.27

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$1100

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$140/ -$110

Daily Price Outlook

The gold price concluded the previous session above the level of $1913.15, thereby affirming the trajectory for an ongoing bullish momentum and the attainment of fresh positive objectives commencing at $1929.00 and extending to $1945.20. Consequently, the prospects for a bullish trend persist as a valid and active scenario, underpinned by the EMA50's supportive influence from beneath.

It's worth noting that a breach of the $1913.15 threshold could disrupt the anticipated upward movement and potentially trigger a renewed decline. The anticipated trading range for the present day ranges between the support level of $1905.00 and the resistance level of $1940.00. The outlook for today is expected to remain bullish.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1915

Take Profit – 1930

Stop Loss – 1909

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1500/ -$600

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$150/ -$60

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its upward rally and gained positive traction for Thursday's fourth consecutive day. However, the upward movement was primarily fueled by growing concerns surrounding a potential global economic downturn, which strongly supported the XAU/USD. In the meantime, the emergence of some buying activity in the US Dollar may potentially limit any further gains for this precious metal.

Gold prices have maintained a positive trend for the fourth consecutive day, currently hovering just below the $1,920 mark. This level represents a near two-week high achieved in the previous trading session. However, it's important to note that the XAU/USD pair lacks strong bullish momentum, suggesting exercising caution before considering a continuation of the recent rebound from the $1,885 range.

Global Economic Concerns Boost Gold Prices

It's important to mention that China's economic situation is worsening, and recent surveys about manufacturing worldwide were not good. In the United States, the numbers are also not great. On top of that, the United States, the world's largest economy, is seeing a slowdown in business activity, almost hitting a standstill in August. This is evident in S&P Global's early report on business activity, which had its biggest drop since November 2022, falling to 50.4 in August from the previous 52. This uncertainty is boosting the price of gold, which is considered a safe investment in uncertain times.

Fed Policy and Dollar Strength Impacting Gold Prices

Moreover, the probabilities of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates further are decreasing. This caused the 10-year US government bond yield to drop after reaching a 16-year high. This drop in bond yields is good for gold. However, the market is unsure when the Fed will stop raising rates or even start cutting them. Thus, this uncertainty and some people buying US Dollars might keep traders from being too bullish on gold.

The US Dollar, measured by the DXY Index, has stopped falling after hitting a two-month high. If the Dollar gains strength, it could limit the rise of gold priced in Dollars. Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. His words will provide clues about future interest rate moves, affecting the demand for the Dollar and influencing gold prices.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The gold price concluded the previous session above the level of $1913.15, thereby affirming the trajectory for an ongoing bullish momentum and the attainment of fresh positive objectives commencing at $1929.00 and extending to $1945.20. Consequently, the prospects for a bullish trend persist as a valid and active scenario, underpinned by the EMA50's supportive influence from beneath.

It's worth noting that a breach of the $1913.15 threshold could disrupt the anticipated upward movement and potentially trigger a renewed decline. The anticipated trading range for the present day ranges between the support level of $1905.00 and the resistance level of $1940.00. The outlook for today is expected to remain bullish.

Daily Price Outlook

The Gold Price (XAU/USD) has continued its upward momentum, finding support through dip-buying activity on Wednesday. During the Asian session, XAU/USD successfully reclaimed the significant $1,900 milestone. Despite these movements, a notable surge in value remains somewhat elusive. This is largely attributed to the prevailing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will uphold its hawkish stance.

However, the driving force behind this upward rally can be attributed to the retreat of US bond yields, which in turn, exerts pressure on the US Dollar and provides a modicum of support to gold. Moreover, China's ongoing economic challenges have further boosted the demand for the safe-haven appeal of XAU/USD.

Gold (XAU/USD) Faces Pressure from Rate Hike Expectations but Shows Signs of Recovery

In contrast to this, market participants now appear strongly convinced that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates for a more extended period. They've factored in the chance of another 25 basis points increase in rates before this year concludes. This recent anticipation has triggered an increase in US Treasury bond yields, consequently exerting downward pressure on the value of Gold, a non-interest yielding asset. As a result, the Gold price experienced a decline, reaching its lowest point since mid-March, and it was hovering around $1,885 earlier this week.

Although, the combination of supportive factors has helped Gold (XAU/USD) to make a modest recovery. Over the past three days, it's managed to gain some positive momentum for the third day in a row.

It's important to highlight that the yield from the primary 10-year US government bond experienced a slight decline after reaching its highest level in nearly 16 years on Tuesday. This made people decide to take some profits from the US Dollar. When the US Dollar is weaker, it's generally good for Gold, which is priced in US Dollars.

Factors Affecting Gold and USD Ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

Furthermore, the ongoing concerns surrounding China's economic outlook were also contributing to Gold's appeal as a safe-haven investment during times of uncertainty. This additional factor is bolstering the ongoing recovery in Gold price. Although, traders seems cautious and refraining from significant moves ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Thereby, investors are closely monitoring the statements of Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the symposium for insights into future interest rate trends. There's a growing perception that the pace of rate hikes might ease in September, potentially impacting both short-term behavior of the US Dollar and influencing Gold's price trajectory.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The price of gold encountered substantial resistance from the EMA50, prompting a swift downward rebound and a subsequent test of the crucial support level at $1889.35. Notably, the price managed to consolidate above this level, leading to a bullish rally as it attempts to reestablish the anticipated upward momentum in the intraday context. The confirmation of this positive scenario hinges on the breach of $1897.00, a move that would signal the continuation of the ascent towards our primary target at $1913.15.

Given these conditions, we maintain our outlook for a bullish trend in the coming period, supported by the current favorable overlapping signal from the stochastic indicator. It is imperative to maintain a level above $1889.35 to sustain the anticipated upward movement.

The projected trading range for today is forecasted to span between the support at $1885.00 and the resistance at $1913.15.

Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold encountered substantial resistance from the EMA50, prompting a swift downward rebound and a subsequent test of the crucial support level at $1889.35. Notably, the price managed to consolidate above this level, leading to a bullish rally as it attempts to reestablish the anticipated upward momentum in the intraday context. The confirmation of this positive scenario hinges on the breach of $1897.00, a move that would signal the continuation of the ascent towards our primary target at $1913.15.

Given these conditions, we maintain our outlook for a bullish trend in the coming period, supported by the current favorable overlapping signal from the stochastic indicator. It is imperative to maintain a level above $1889.35 to sustain the anticipated upward movement.

The projected trading range for today is forecasted to span between the support at $1885.00 and the resistance at $1913.15.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1899

Take Profit – 1908

Stop Loss – 1892

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.29

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$900/ -$700

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$90/ -$70

Daily Price Outlook

Gold Price (XAU/USD) has dropped to its lowest point in five months, showing a downward trend. Despite a small positive movement yesterday, it's struggling to recover and remains below $1,900. Traders are cautious, holding back from strong bids as they await more information about the Federal Reserve's upcoming policies. All eyes are on the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments will be closely watched for signals about future interest rate changes.

This will significantly affect the short-term movement of Gold prices. At the same time, as more people realize that the Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates up for a while, the US Dollar (USD) remains pretty steady.

Fed's Interest Rates and Gold Price Dynamics

It is worth noting that the Fed is expected to stop raising interest rates for now, but some people still think there might be one more increase later. This is because inflation in the US is not completely under control. The US economy seems strong, which makes it likely that the Fed might make policies stricter. These actions make US bonds more attractive and the US Dollar stronger, which affects the price of Gold.

This expectation was influenced by the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), which indicated that the effort to bring inflation back to the Fed's desired 2% target is still ongoing.

Gold Price and China's Economic Concerns

However, despite these developments, the Gold price might find some support due to lingering concerns about economic troubles in China. The recent decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to implement a smaller interest rate adjustment on Monday, even amidst worries about problems in China's real estate sector, indicates that the Chinese government is not providing extensive support for the economy. This situation has led to a decrease in risk appetite among investors.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The price of gold has successfully breached the resistance of the bearish channel, establishing itself above this level and setting the stage for a bullish trajectory in the intraday scope. The focus of this bullish movement is directed towards the initial primary target at $1913.15. It's noteworthy that surpassing this level would signify the continuation of the upward trend, leading to further gains and potentially reaching the levels of $1929.00 and subsequently $1945.20.

Consequently, the prevailing sentiment points towards a bullish trend for today's trading session. A breach of the support level at $1897.00 would facilitate the accomplishment of the aforementioned targets, while breaking below $1889.35 would introduce a negative aspect, prompting the price to revert to a bearish course once again. The projected trading range for today is anticipated to fall between the support level at $1885.00 and the resistance level at $1913.15.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair experienced an upward surge in the previous trading session, following a breach of the bullish flag's resistance line highlighted in our previous analysis. This propelled the pair towards the awaited positive target at 146.55. It's worth noting that the price's positive momentum has waned as it embarks on the current trading day.

Notably, the stochastic indicator exhibits a negative overlap, thereby bolstering the likelihood of potential downturns in the forthcoming sessions. This outlook anticipates a decline towards the levels of 145.15 and subsequently 144.55, identified as the primary negative waypoints.

Given the prevailing circumstances, a bearish bias is to be anticipated for today's trading session. It's pertinent to acknowledge that a breakthrough above the 146.55 level could trigger a resumption of the primary bullish trend, facilitating further gains with a potential target of 147.00. The projected trading range for the day is foreseen to span between the support level at 145.00 and the resistance level at 146.55.

USD/JPY - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 146.060

Take Profit – 145.664

Stop Loss – 146.461

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$396/ -$401

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$39/ -$40