Daily Price Outlook

Analyzing the technical landscape of the S&P 500 reveals an interesting scenario. Despite minor fluctuations reminiscent of a drizzle, my attention has been directed towards the 4400 level. A closer examination unveils the 50-day exponential moving average acting as a robust support pillar at 4385.

The noteworthy development is the confirmation triggered by candle closures above this threshold, signaling a bullish inclination. Delving into the technical indicators, both the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicators exhibit a steady stance, lending weight to the potential for a sustained upward trajectory.

Moreover, a compelling possibility emerges as the S&P 500 demonstrates the capacity to aim for the 4420 level. Should this objective be realized, the subsequent milestone at 4450 looms on the horizon. Conversely, a breach below 4385 could steer the index towards the 4360 or 4336 vicinity. As prudent strategy dictates, maintaining a vigilant stance to seize a buying opportunity around the 4385 level is recommended for the day.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 4388.7

Take Profit – 4420.9

Stop Loss – 4362.6

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.23

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$322/ -$261

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$32/ -$26

Daily Price Outlook

The prominent S&P 500 stock market index is currently oscillating around the 4464 mark. This specific support is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and the candlestick patterns suggest that there is a strong possibility for a continued decline. The S&P 500 finds its next support at approximately 4437, underpinned by the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Key technical indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, are currently positioned within the bearish territory. Meanwhile, the 50-day exponential moving average indicates a bearish sentiment, offering immediate resistance near the 4472 level. For now, traders should closely monitor the 4475 mark.

A move below this could usher in a more pronounced bearish trend. Conversely, if the index surpasses this level, we could anticipate an uptrend towards 4490 or even an ascent towards 4525. Should the index descend below 4475, there's potential for the S&P 500 to plummet to the 4435 level, with a further potential drop bringing the index close to the 4400 benchmark.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 4470

Take Profit – 4400.00

Stop Loss – 4517.00

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$470

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$47

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment failed to stop its downward trend and remains pessimistic amid growing concerns over China's mounting debt issues and escalating global political tensions. As the new week begins, risk appetite continues to dwindle, exacerbated by weekend reports from China highlighting further economic challenges.

In the meantime, the geopolitical worries about Russia are also contributing to the negative mood. This is evident in the S&P500 Futures' decline and US 10-year Treasury bond yields nearing a yearly high of 4.18%.

Market Sentiment Sours Amid China's Debt Woes and Geopolitical Tensions

The global market sentiment turned negative as China's Country Garden has stopped trading its bonds, and some Chinese companies are complaining about not getting paid by a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group. This has triggered record-low bond prices and trading halts for Country Garden. Furthermore, tensions from the US-China trade war and Russia's actions in the Black Sea are also adding to market uncertainty.

US Data and Fed Views Create Mixed Sentiment in Forex Markets

Apart from this, the global market sentiment was also influenced by US data. July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a minor effect on September's expectations for the Federal Reserve's actions. Nonetheless, other indicators suggesting a potential interest rate increase bolstered optimism for the US Dollar. The US Producer Price Index (PPI), coupled with the August Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and inflation expectations, offered additional backing for the strength of the USD.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman supported more rate hikes, while others like Mary Daly, Patrick Harker, and John Williams suggested rate cuts in 2024 but emphasized data dependence, leaving policy doves seeking more details for confirmation. Therefore, this news had a mixed impact on the market sentiment as the lack of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September Fed policy lessened expectations, but other positive price measures boosted USD.

Upcoming Data Releases and FOMC Minutes Awaited for Market Direction

Looking forward, investors are keeping their eyes on China's upcoming Industrial Production and Retail Sales data for July, set to release on Tuesday. These figures will offer important initial cues, especially ahead of Wednesday's housing data. Besides, the market focus remains on Tuesday's US Retail Sales for July and Wednesday's release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes, providing insights for market sentiment.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

The prominent S&P 500 stock market index is currently oscillating around the 4464 mark. This specific support is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and the candlestick patterns suggest that there is a strong possibility for a continued decline. The S&P 500 finds its next support at approximately 4437, underpinned by the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Key technical indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, are currently positioned within the bearish territory. Meanwhile, the 50-day exponential moving average indicates a bearish sentiment, offering immediate resistance near the 4472 level. For now, traders should closely monitor the 4475 mark.

A move below this could usher in a more pronounced bearish trend. Conversely, if the index surpasses this level, we could anticipate an uptrend towards 4490 or even an ascent towards 4525. Should the index descend below 4475, there's potential for the S&P 500 to plummet to the 4435 level, with a further potential drop bringing the index close to the 4400 benchmark.

Daily Price Outlook

The primary stock market index is the S&P 500, currently positioned at 4,671.1 points. A thorough analysis of the four-hour timeframe reveals a noteworthy technical perspective for the SPX. This perspective gains significance following its successful breach of the crucial 4,500 level.

In terms of downside potential, should the S&P 500 maintain its position below 4,757.94, there is the possibility of a decline towards the 4,437 level. Examining the longer timeframe, the S&P 500 has already achieved approximately 58.7% of its retracement from the 4,474 level. The presence of the 50-day exponential moving average provides a suggestive context for the continuation of the ongoing downtrend.

Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators offer supportive readings, enhancing the probability of sustained downward momentum. Presently, breaking below 4,450 could potentially provide an opportunity to initiate a short position on the S&P 500, with a target set at 4,437 or even lower to the 4,400 level.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 4470

Take Profit – 4400

Stop Loss – 4517

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$470

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$47

Daily Price Outlook

The global markets sentiment prologned its upward trend and remained well positive on Friday as traders are confident that interest rates won't go up due to lower inflation signs. Thereby, the S&P500 Futures, which predict how well the US stock market will do, have gone up by about 0.20% to around 4,490.

This situation arises from the relatively underwhelming recent inflation data in the United States. As a result, the Federal Reserve, responsible for decisions regarding the country's monetary policy, appears to be adopting a more relaxed stance concerning price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Philip Lowe, who leads Australia's central bank, supports thier choice to maintain a stable monetary policy stance to avoid job losses. Thus, the markets are positive as traders feel better about rates and prices.

In addition, recent polls by Reuters show that both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to keep interest rates unchanged in their upcoming meetings. This decision fosters optimism among traders and plays a role in bolstering the positive momentum in market sentiment.

Global Concerns Impacting Market Sentiment

On the flip side, there is growing concern regarding escalating tensions between Western nations and China. The United States initiated this by implementing regulations pertaining to investments in Chinese technology companies, a move that appears to be influencing the contemplation of similar actions by the United Kingdom and Europe. These developments are inducing a sense of unease among the populace.

Moreover, there's news about a major Chinese real estate company called Country Garden facing financial troubles and needing to reorganize its debt. This, along with worries about upcoming data from the US, is adding to the concerns. Chinese leaders are working hard to protect the value of their currency, the Yuan. This effort is making people more confident that China can manage its economic challenges. As a result, this positive feeling is supporting the recent cautious optimism in the region.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

The primary stock market index is the S&P 500, currently positioned at 4,671.1 points. A thorough analysis of the four-hour timeframe reveals a noteworthy technical perspective for the SPX. This perspective gains significance following its successful breach of the crucial 4,500 level.

In terms of downside potential, should the S&P 500 maintain its position below 4,757.94, there is the possibility of a decline towards the 4,437 level. Examining the longer timeframe, the S&P 500 has already achieved approximately 58.7% of its retracement from the 4,474 level. The presence of the 50-day exponential moving average provides a suggestive context for the continuation of the ongoing downtrend.

Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators offer supportive readings, enhancing the probability of sustained downward momentum. Presently, breaking below 4,450 could potentially provide an opportunity to initiate a short position on the S&P 500, with a target set at 4,437 or even lower to the 4,400 level.

Daily Price Outlook

Examining the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading stance centers around the 4475 support threshold. This support is further fortified by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it's important to acknowledge that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator are signaling bearish conditions, implying a significant likelihood of a downward correction.

At present, the immediate support is provided by the 61.8% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average, situated at 4475. Should the price undergo a bearish breach beneath this level, the next potential support lies around 4435.

Conversely, an optimistic scenario entails a breakout above the 4530 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the resistance levels at 4560 or 4600.

For traders, vigilant monitoring of the 4500 level is imperative. This juncture presents a prospective selling opportunity in the event of a bearish breakdown, while a sustained support might indicate a favorable buying opportunity.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 4498

Take Profit – 4575

Stop Loss – 4457

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.88

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$770/ -$410

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$77/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment failed to prolong its upward momentum and turned sluggish, fading the cautious optimism that started the week. People are now eagerly awaiting second-tier economic data from both China and the US, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday. This uncertainty comes as major central bankers send mixed signals. Additionally, there is a lack of significant data or events on the horizon until the US inflation report is published on Thursday.

It is worth noting that the S&P500 Futures, which represent how investors feel about the stock market, show slight losses around 4,530. This is a retreat from Friday's monthly low after a small gain on Monday. Meanwhile, the yields on US Treasury bonds, both the 10-year and two-year bonds, are under pressure, hovering around 4.06% and 4.76%, respectively. It's worth noting that Wall Street managed to break its five-day streak of losses on Monday, ending the day with a modest gain.

Market Dynamics: USD Strength, Gold and Oil Weakness, Mixed Central Bank Signals

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 102.00, while Gold and Crude Oil prices are showing weakness, both down by 0.20% and 0.50% respectively. However, the uncertainty has been fueled by mixed statements from important central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and European Central Bank (ECB).

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has indicated that more interest rate hikes might be necessary to manage inflation. On the flip side, New York Fed President John C. Williams has suggested that interest rates could decrease next year. Williams has also expressed a desire for a slightly higher unemployment rate as the economy cools down.

European Central Bank and Global Central Bank Insights Impacting Markets

Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been in the spotlight due to discussions about high interest rates, sparked by Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency. This caused a dip in the Euro's value, as Fitch mentioned that the possibility of low inflation could lead to a pause in the ECB's rate increases. The ECB itself also noted that the period of highest underlying inflation likely occurred in the first half of 2023.

Meanwhile, Huw Pill, the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, outlined two potential risks for inflation in the United Kingdom. All of these recent events and statements are actively shaping the current financial landscape.

Upcoming Trade Figures and CPI Data: Market Impact Anticipated

Looking ahead, the focus will be on trade data from both China and the US today. However, the China Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the US CPI on Thursday will be crucial for traders seeking clear direction. These events will likely have a major impact on the markets.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

Examining the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading stance centers around the 4475 support threshold. This support is further fortified by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it's important to acknowledge that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator are signaling bearish conditions, implying a significant likelihood of a downward correction.

At present, the immediate support is provided by the 61.8% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average, situated at 4475. Should the price undergo a bearish breach beneath this level, the next potential support lies around 4435.

Conversely, an optimistic scenario entails a breakout above the 4530 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the resistance levels at 4560 or 4600.

For traders, vigilant monitoring of the 4500 level is imperative. This juncture presents a prospective selling opportunity in the event of a bearish breakdown, while a sustained support might indicate a favorable buying opportunity.

Daily Price Outlook

On the technical front, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a significant bearish candle on the three-day timeframe, commonly referred to as a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern. This candle has fully engulfed all the previous trading activity on July 24th, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among investors as the S&P 500 index closed in the red.

Furthermore, the index has broken below another important trend line that was providing support around the 4555 level. The closing of candles below this trend line suggests a high likelihood of a continued downtrend for the S&P 500 index.

On the downside, there is potential support around the 4530 level, and a substantial breach of this level could lead the SPX price to its next support level at 4500. Further continuation of the downtrend could bring the S&P 500 index down to the 4490 level.

Conversely, if the S&P 500 manages to hold above the 4530 level, it may find the potential to reach the next resistance level at 4560, and further strength could lead to resistance around 4580. Careful monitoring of these support and resistance levels will be crucial for traders as they navigate the current market conditions.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 4528.02

Take Profit – 4558.84

Stop Loss – 4509.98

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$308/ -$180

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$30/ -$18

Daily Price Outlook

Yesterday, the S&P 500 index remained relatively stable at 4566, with a small decrease of -0.02%. This followed the expected quarter percentage point hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, which led to a year-to-date high.

The Fed's post-meeting statement showed a bias for "additional policy firming," but Fed Chair Powell's remarks during the press conference seemed more cautious, emphasizing a data-dependent and patient approach for future rate decisions. This approach has raised market optimism that US interest rates may have peaked, which has improved risk appetite. 

There are several reasons for market optimism, including positive earnings season, strong global growth, and potential for additional stimulus in China. However, several factors present risks, such as extreme optimism, overbought conditions, overcrowded positioning, and seasonal headwinds. 

Yesterday, US equities had mixed results, with the S&P 500 showing little change after the Fed's rate hike to combat inflation. The performance of S&P 500 stocks was mixed as well, resulting in its value remaining relatively stable.

Some gainers included Alphabet (GOOGL), which saw a 5% increase due to better-than-expected revenue from Google ad sales, Union Pacific (UNP), which surged 10% following the announcement of a new CEO, and Boeing (BA), which performed well with shares rising 8% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly loss and increased plane deliveries. 

On the other hand, some notable losers included Texas Instruments (TXN), which experienced a 5% drop in shares due to a slowdown in demand impacting profit and sales estimates, and Microsoft (MSFT), whose shares fell 3% after its third-quarter guidance missed estimates, largely attributed to a slowdown in its Azure cloud and Windows PC businesses.

Additionally, CoStar Group (CSGP) and Allegion Plc (ALLE) both faced declines of 8% and 7%, respectively, as CoStar cut its full-year revenue guidance, and Allegion Plc lowered its full-year sales forecast, both citing factors affecting demand in their respective industries. The mixed performance across these stocks contributed to the overall stability of the S&P 500 index, keeping its value relatively unchanged.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a significant bearish candle on the three-day timeframe, commonly referred to as a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern. This candle has fully engulfed all the previous trading activity on July 24th, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among investors as the S&P 500 index closed in the red.

Furthermore, the index has broken below another important trend line that was providing support around the 4555 level. The closing of candles below this trend line suggests a high likelihood of a continued downtrend for the S&P 500 index.

On the downside, there is potential support around the 4530 level, and a substantial breach of this level could lead the SPX price to its next support level at 4500. Further continuation of the downtrend could bring the S&P 500 index down to the 4490 level.

Conversely, if the S&P 500 manages to hold above the 4530 level, it may find the potential to reach the next resistance level at 4560, and further strength could lead to resistance around 4580. Careful monitoring of these support and resistance levels will be crucial for traders as they navigate the current market conditions.

Daily Price Outlook

Analyzing the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading position revolves around the 4535 support level. This support is further reinforced by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, it is crucial to note that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a high probability of a bearish correction.

Presently, the 23.6% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average offer immediate support at 4535. If the price experiences a bearish break below this level, it may encounter the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels at 4506 and 4484, respectively.

On the other hand, a bullish scenario involves a breakthrough above the 4580 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

As traders, it is essential to closely monitor the 4535 level as it presents a potential selling opportunity in case of a bearish break, while a sustained support could signal a buying opportunity.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 4532

Take Profit – 4625

Stop Loss – 4497

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$930/ -$350

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$93/ -$35