S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 25, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
In the last 24 hours, the S&P 500 index experienced a notable surge of 0.4%, primarily fueled by a rally in energy stocks and overall positive market sentiment. The increase was further supported by better-than-expected quarterly results from major tech companies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's imminent decision.
Energy stocks led the gains, with companies like Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum, and Chevron posting notable increases. Chevron's record quarterly production in the Permian Basin contributed to the positive sentiment, as it confirmed improved well performance and projects remaining on track, according to UBS.
Regional banks also saw a rally, boosted by stabilizing deposit data from companies like KeyCorp, Huntington Bancshares, and Citizens Financial Group, which instilled confidence in the financial sector.
Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from tech giants such as Alphabet and Microsoft, scheduled for Tuesday, followed by Meta on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. Positive themes in the tech sector, including strength in cloud services, AI monetization, and stabilization in digital advertising, have set an optimistic tone for tech stocks ahead of the earnings season.
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting commencing on Tuesday has raised expectations of a 0.25% rate hike, which is almost fully priced in. Additionally, Treasury yields have climbed in anticipation of the impending rate hike.
As the earnings season unfolds, a total of 166 S&P 500 companies, including major tech players, are set to report their second-quarter financials. The broader S&P 500 index has displayed a robust rebound over the past nine months, with over $10 trillion reinvested into the equities market.
The upcoming updates from big tech companies have sparked speculations about the potential for AI-driven growth projections to propel the S&P 500 to reach a new record high.
S&P500 (SPX) Technical analysis
Analyzing the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading position revolves around the 4535 support level. This support is further reinforced by the 23.6% replacement ratio.
However, it is crucial to note that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a high probability of a bearish correction.
Presently, the 23.6% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average offer immediate support at 4535. If the price experiences a bearish break below this level, it may encounter the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels at 4506 and 4484, respectively.
On the other hand, a bullish scenario involves a breakthrough above the 4580 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the 468 or 466 resistance levels.
As traders, it is essential to closely monitor the 4535 level as it presents a potential selling opportunity in case of a bearish break, while a sustained support could signal a buying opportunity.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
Taking a look at the technical side of the S&P 500, it is currently trading around the 4535 support level. This particular support divergence is being extended by the 23.6% replacement ratio.
However, upon examining the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator, both of them are showing overbought conditions, suggesting that the chances of a bearish correction remain strong.
At the moment, the 23.6% retracement level, as well as the 50-day exponential moving average, are providing immediate support around 4535. In the event of a bearish break below this level, the SPX price is likely to be exposed to the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels, which are at 4506 and 4484 respectively.
An alternative scenario is a bullish break above the 4580 resistance level, which would likely expose the S&P 500 index towards the 468 or 466 resistance levels.
Therefore, we should monitor the 4535 level closely, as a bearish break below this support could present a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the support holds, we can also consider a buying opportunity.
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Stop 4524
Take Profit – 4483
Stop Loss – 4563
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$410/ -$390
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$41/ -$39
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 24, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 index experienced a slow movement as investors eagerly awaited crucial events that could shape market sentiment and direction. On Monday, SPX is rising by +0.03% gains at 4536.34, this little change reflects the cautious stance of traders.
The previous week saw a mixed performance among the major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to extend its winning streak for ten consecutive days, the longest since 2017, albeit with a mere 2.51-point gain. On the other hand, the S&P 500 closed the week with a modest 0.7% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded a 0.6% decline. These fluctuations indicate a hesitant market sentiment, with investors treading cautiously.
Market experts have been noting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards a more bearish outlook. The profit-taking attitude has been particularly evident among investors who have enjoyed impressive returns from tech and FAANG stocks.
The slow movement in the S&P 500 index can also be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The slight improvement in price of index might be due to the ongoing expectations of potential rate hike in the upcoming Fed meeting.
Additionally, the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, further contributed to the cautious atmosphere.
Moreover, the ongoing earnings season played a significant role in the index's sluggishness. With a busy week ahead, including financial updates from major companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, as well as significant pharmaceutical, industrial, and big oil firms, investors remained on the sidelines, awaiting corporate performance indicators that could influence market trends.
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis
Taking a look at the technical side of the S&P 500, it is currently trading around the 4535 support level. This particular support divergence is being extended by the 23.6% replacement ratio.
However, upon examining the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator, both of them are showing overbought conditions, suggesting that the chances of a bearish correction remain strong.
At the moment, the 23.6% retracement level, as well as the 50-day exponential moving average, are providing immediate support around 4535. In the event of a bearish break below this level, the SPX price is likely to be exposed to the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels, which are at 4506 and 4484 respectively.
An alternative scenario is a bullish break above the 4580 resistance level, which would likely expose the S&P 500 index towards the 468 or 466 resistance levels.
Therefore, we should monitor the 4535 level closely, as a bearish break below this support could present a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the support holds, we can also consider a buying opportunity.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 index has experienced a continued decline during the Asian trading session, leading to worry among investors. However, the reason can be attributed to the rise in Treasury yields, which occurred after strong job market data was released just before the June monthly payroll report.
Investors are now fearing that the Federal Reserve might need to take additional measures to manage the economy and control inflation. These factors have resulted in market uncertainty and made investors uneasy.
Private Payrolls Show Strong Growth, Raising Expectations
In June, private payrolls showed significant growth, reaching 497,000 jobs, surpassing the previous month's figure of 267,000 and exceeding economists' expectations. This positive report has had a dominant impact, overshadowing other data such as higher-than-anticipated weekly initial jobless claims and a lower-than-expected number of job openings in May. Consequently, concerns have arisen that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to proceed with its guidance for two more interest rate hikes.
Thus, the positive report of significant private payroll growth in June, surpassing expectations, has impacted the S&P 500 price by causing concerns that the Federal Reserve may proceed with two more interest rate hikes. This has contributed to the downward trend in the S&P 500 and added to market uncertainty.
Market Worries Intensify with Weak Chinese Economic Data and Trade Conflict Risks
Adding to the market's worries, China has released a series of weak economic data, indicating concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Moreover, the risk of further escalation in the US-China trade conflict has dampened investor sentiment, resulting in a generally weaker tone across equity markets.
Amidst the concerns, the market reflects a 93% expectation of a rate hike in July, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Anticipating additional tightening measures from the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields have surged, with the 2-year and 10-year yields surpassing 5% and 4%, respectively.
Hence, the release of weak economic data from China, combined with the risk of escalating US-China trade tensions, has negatively impacted investor sentiment and contributed to a generally weaker tone across equity markets, including the S&P 500.
The Firming Expectations of an Interest Rate Hike
The market's firming expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming policy meeting on July 25-26 have significantly bolstered the US dollar. This belief was reinforced by the positive US ADP report, which indicated that private-sector employers added 497,000 jobs in June, surpassing the previous month's figure and exceeding the most optimistic estimates.
Therefore, the market's increasing expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, fueled by positive job growth reported in the US ADP report, have had a mixed impact on the S&P 500 price.
SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis
Taking a look at the technical analysis of the S&P 500, it opened with a significant downside gap and closed lower.
The $4400 level appears to be a crucial support, as indicated by the ascending triangle pattern observed on the daily and four-hour time frames.
This pattern suggests a strong possibility of a continued bullish trend. Furthermore, the presence of the 50-day exponential moving average acts as a support zone, reinforcing the positive sentiment in the S&P 500.
Today's forecast suggests that the price is likely to remain around the $4400 level, with a potential target of $4450.
A successful breakout above this level could expose the S&P 500 to the $4480 level. On the other hand, a breakdown below the $4400 level may lead to a decline towards $4360 or even lower towards the $4330 level.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P 500 opened with a significant downside gap and closed lower, with the $4400 level acting as a crucial support.
- The ascending triangle pattern observed on the daily and four-hour time frames indicates a strong possibility of a continued bullish trend.
- A breakout above $4450 could lead to the $4480 level, while a breakdown below $4400 may result in a decline towards $4360 or even lower to $4330.
Taking a look at the technical analysis of the S&P 500, it opened with a significant downside gap and closed lower.
The $4400 level appears to be a crucial support, as indicated by the ascending triangle pattern observed on the daily and four-hour time frames.
This pattern suggests a strong possibility of a continued bullish trend. Furthermore, the presence of the 50-day exponential moving average acts as a support zone, reinforcing the positive sentiment in the S&P 500.
Today's forecast suggests that the price is likely to remain around the $4400 level, with a potential target of $4450.
A successful breakout above this level could expose the S&P 500 to the $4480 level. On the other hand, a breakdown below the $4400 level may lead to a decline towards $4360 or even lower towards the $4330 level.
SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 4400
Take Profit – 4450
Stop Loss – 4360
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$500/ -$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$50/ -$40
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P 500 index shows consolidation above a crucial support area of 4,440, indicating a strong likelihood of a continuing bullish trend.
- Positive confirmation of this breakthrough is seen through a bullish candle closing above the support level, while resistance levels at 4,511 and 4,525 become the next targets to watch.
- Support from key indicators like the exponential moving average, relative strength index, and moving average convergence divergence align with the prevailing bullish sentiment, suggesting the upward trend is expected to persist.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 index is currently in an exciting phase, as it consolidates above a key support area of 4,440. The candles closing above this level indicate a strong possibility of the ongoing bullish trend continuing its upward journey. It's like the index is putting on a bullish show for us!
To further confirm this breakthrough, we can see a bullish candle that has closed above the mentioned support level. This adds more fuel to the bullish fire. As we look ahead, our eyes should be on the next resistance levels at 4,511 and 4,525. These levels might act as hurdles for the index as it reaches for new heights.
However, we must also keep in mind that a breach of the support at 4,440 could have a significant impact, potentially triggering a substantial downward movement. In such a scenario, we anticipate a strong support level around 4,395 coming into play.
Given all this excitement, it becomes crucial for us to closely monitor the 4,440 level. It holds the potential to be a turning point for today's trading activities. So let's keep our eyes peeled and enjoy the thrill ride of the S&P 500 index!
SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 4440
Take Profit – 4500
Stop Loss – 4408
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.93
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$600/ -$311
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$60/ -$31
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 06, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Thursday, the SPX Index is -0.20% up from its previous 24-hours level at $4446.82. Carnival Corp. & PLC, with a 67.7% increase to a $23.46 billion market value as of June 30, was the best-performing S&P 500 company in June.
US Stocks Rally in June, Propelling S&P 500 to Record Highs
According to a report released by S&P Global, US stocks displayed a powerful resurgence in June, with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 experiencing gains. This remarkable rebound led to the S&P 500 reaching new heights, surging by 6.5% to an all-time high of 4,450.38. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average performed relatively weaker with a 4.6% increase, smaller-cap stocks stole the spotlight, recording the highest gains, with the Russell 2000 surging by 7.9%.
The consumer discretionary sector emerged as the frontrunner, posting an impressive 12.0% gain, followed closely by the industrials sector at 11.2% and the materials sector at 10.8%.
Carnival Corp. & PLC stood out as the top-performing stock in June, witnessing a substantial 67.7% surge in market capitalization. The company's positive earnings report, including better-than-expected adjusted losses and exceeding revenue projections, fueled its remarkable recovery. Conversely, Dollar General Corp. struggled, experiencing a significant decline of 15.6% due to disappointing earnings.
Overall, this robust performance across all sectors of the S&P 500 in June revitalized investor confidence, highlighting the resilience and attractiveness of the US stock market as a lucrative investment option. This report caped further losses on S&P 500 Index on Thursday.
Wall Street Retreats as Fed Meeting Minutes Signal Possible Rate Hikes
The investors were closely analyzing the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38%, shedding 129.83 points to close at 34,288.64. Similarly, the S&P 500 index slipped by 0.2%, settling at 4,446.82.
SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis
On Thursday, the S&P 500 index is currently in an exciting phase, as it consolidates above a key support area of 4,440. The candles closing above this level indicate a strong possibility of the ongoing bullish trend continuing its upward journey. It's like the index is putting on a bullish show for us!
To further confirm this breakthrough, we can see a bullish candle that has closed above the mentioned support level. This adds more fuel to the bullish fire. As we look ahead, our eyes should be on the next resistance levels at 4,511 and 4,525. These levels might act as hurdles for the index as it reaches for new heights.
However, we must also keep in mind that a breach of the support at 4,440 could have a significant impact, potentially triggering a substantial downward movement. In such a scenario, we anticipate a strong support level around 4,395 coming into play.
Given all this excitement, it becomes crucial for us to closely monitor the 4,440 level. It holds the potential to be a turning point for today's trading activities. So let's keep our eyes peeled and enjoy the thrill ride of the S&P 500 index!
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 index has surpassed the critical resistance level at 4,440, indicating a strong likelihood of a continued bullish trend.
- Next resistance levels to watch are at 4,511 and 4,525, while a breach of the support at 4,440 could lead to a significant downward move with support expected around 4,395.
- Monitoring the 4,440 level is important for assessing future trading activities.
Based on technical analysis, the S&P 500 index has successfully surpassed the critical resistance level at 4,440, indicating a strong likelihood of an ongoing bullish trend. The confirmation of this breakthrough is evident through the presence of a bullish candle closing above the mentioned level. Moving forward, the next resistance levels to monitor are at 4,511 and 4,525.
Conversely, a breach of the support at 4,440 could trigger a substantial downward movement, with a significant support level anticipated around 4,395.
Supporting the positive outlook, the exponential moving average and indicators like the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence all align with the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the SPX.
These indicators suggest that the upward trend is likely to persist. Therefore, it is crucial to closely observe the 4,440 level as it holds the potential to serve as a pivotal point for today's trading activities.
SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 4440
Take Profit – 4500
Stop Loss – 4400
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$600/ -$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$60/ -$40
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 05, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
On Wednesday, the SPX Index is +0.12% up from its previous 24-hours level at $4455.59. According to the head analyst at BMO, a bullish scenario would see the S&P 500 index increase by another 13% by year's end.
Tech and bank stocks may help the S&P 500 reach a new high, according to the head of BMO's investment division.
Thanks to better-than-expected tech and bank sector results, the S&P 500 might increase by another 13% to reach a new high by the end of the year, according to the head of BMO's investment division.
With the S&P 500 already up 16% this year, Belski's 5,050-point price goal would see the index continue its remarkable run from the first half of 2023.
Belski thinks that both equities and fixed-income assets have entered a "normalization phase" as the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its tightening cycle, after offering dismal returns in 2022. Many analysts have identified the rise of AI as the primary driver behind the stock-market rally.
"That's a great position to have in both bonds and stocks going forward for at least the next three to five years," Belski noted.
In such a case, the benchmark index would rise due to better-than-anticipated tech and bank results, according to Brian Belski.
Tesal's exceptional Q2 performance sparked an upswing in EV companies
The best-performing stock was Tesla, with shares rising 6.9% as a result of production and delivery figures that exceeded expectations. Other electric car stocks including Rivian, Fisker, and Lucid also saw this upward trend.
Additionally, major banks performed well, increasing dividends and passing the Federal Reserve's health assessment. The S&P 500 banks index grew by 1.5%, Citigroup jumped by 1.5%, and Wells Fargo shares surged by 1.7%.
Since Tesla consistently outperforms the competition, all EV manufacturers increase gain. The S&P 500 is rising because of the outstanding performance of Tesla.
SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis
Based on technical analysis, the S&P 500 index has successfully surpassed the critical resistance level at 4,440, indicating a strong likelihood of an ongoing bullish trend. The confirmation of this breakthrough is evident through the presence of a bullish candle closing above the mentioned level. Moving forward, the next resistance levels to monitor are at 4,511 and 4,525.
Conversely, a breach of the support at 4,440 could trigger a substantial downward movement, with a significant support level anticipated around 4,395.
Supporting the positive outlook, the exponential moving average and indicators like the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence all align with the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the SPX.
These indicators suggest that the upward trend is likely to persist. Therefore, it is crucial to closely observe the 4,440 level as it holds the potential to serve as a pivotal point for today's trading activities.
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- The S&P 500 index has surpassed the resistance at 4,440, indicating potential for continued bullish movement.
- Support at 4,440 level is crucial; breaching it could lead to a significant downward move.
- Exponential moving average and technical indicators support the bullish outlook for SPX.
Technical analysis indicates that the S&P 500 index has successfully surpassed the double tap resistance level at 4,440, signaling a strong possibility of a continued bullish trend. The presence of a bullish candle closing above this level further supports this outlook.
The next resistance levels to watch for are 4,511 and 4,525. Conversely, if the support at 4,440 is breached, it could lead to a significant downward move, with a strong support level around 4,395.
The exponential moving average and indicators such as the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence also lend support to the positive sentiment surrounding the SPX.
These indicators suggest that the bullish trend is likely to persist. Therefore, it is important to monitor the 4,440 level as it may act as a key pivot point for today's trading activity.
SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 4440
Take Profit – 4500
Stop Loss – 4400
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$600/ -$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$60/ -$40