Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 10, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD faces immediate resistance at $1.3615; breaking above this could signal more bullish momentum.

- Immediate support at $1.3548, with further downside risks toward $1.3509.

- RSI at 57 suggests a neutral to slightly bullish trend, but momentum remains fragile.

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.35635, up 0.04%, hovering near a key pivot point at $1.3598. The pair has shown slight bullish momentum, supported by a relatively strong U.S. dollar.

However, the USD/CAD remains at a critical juncture, with price action confined between immediate resistance and support levels.

Immediate resistance stands at $1.3615, followed by stronger barriers at $1.3640 and $1.3662. If USD/CAD manages to break above $1.3615, it could open the door for further gains, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.3534 providing near-term support. The bullish bias remains intact as long as the price stays above this EMA level.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.3548, with the next critical levels at $1.3509 and $1.3483.

If the pair fails to maintain momentum above $1.3548, selling pressure could increase, pushing the price toward $1.3509. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish momentum, but a dip below $1.3548 could weaken sentiment.

For now, the USD/CAD appears to be balancing between bullish and bearish pressures, with the $1.3598 pivot point serving as a key indicator for the next directional move. Traders should monitor these levels closely to identify potential entry and exit points.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price– Buy Above 1.35474

Take Profit – 1.35975

Stop Loss – 1.35209

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$501/ -$265

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$26

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Sep 03, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 3, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair continued its upward trend for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3534 and reaching an intraday high of 1.3550. This gain is largely due to the strengthened US Dollar, driven by reduced expectations of an aggressive interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September.

However, the Canadian Dollar's decline may be capped by rising crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil has surged to approximately $73.60 per barrel, supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Libya.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Mixed Economic Indicators and Fed Rate Cut Expectations

On the US front, the USD/CAD currency pair has risen due to a stronger US Dollar, fueled by reduced expectations of a major interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. While US Treasury yields are climbing and supporting the Dollar, its gains could be limited by growing anticipation of a quarter-point rate cut.

The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 70% probability of at least a 25 basis point reduction in the Fed's September meeting. The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.6%, matching previous data but falling short of the 2.7% forecast.

Additionally, the US GDP grew at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2, exceeding the 2.8% expectation, and Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 231,000, slightly below the 232,000 forecast.

Looking ahead, markets are pricing in a nearly 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 31% probability of a 50 basis point reduction.

Upcoming data includes the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, expected to rise to 47.5 from 46.8, while the Services PMI may decrease to 51.1 from 51.4. Job additions for August are projected at 163,000, with the Unemployment Rate likely to edge down to 4.2%.

Rising Oil Prices and Bank of Canada Rate Cut Create Mixed Impact on CAD

On the other hand, the decline in the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) is likely to be limited by rising crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil has surged to around $73.60 per barrel, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Libya. Key oil ports in Libya have halted exports, and nationwide production has been reduced, according to Reuters.

Additionally, the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision on Wednesday will be closely watched. The BoC is expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year, with a projected reduction of a quarter percentage point to 4.25%.

Investors also anticipate further rate cuts throughout the rest of the year and into 2025. This potential rate cut could impact the Canadian Dollar's performance, as the central bank's actions are closely tied to economic conditions and currency values.

The rising crude oil prices and anticipated Bank of Canada rate cut could support the CAD, potentially limiting the USD/CAD pair's gains. While oil prices bolster the CAD, the BoC's rate cut may weaken it, creating mixed effects on USD/CAD.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading around $1.3525, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after a period of decline. The pair has recently broken above the 50-day EMA, which is now acting as immediate support around $1.3502, suggesting a shift in momentum. The current price action indicates that if the pair maintains this level, it could extend gains towards higher resistance levels.

Key resistance levels to watch include $1.3549, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by $1.3577 and $1.3614. These levels represent critical barriers where selling pressure could re-emerge. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.3502 (pivot point), with further support levels at $1.3482 and $1.3447.

Technical indicators are favoring a continuation of the bullish trend. The RSI is currently at 60.80, reflecting the increasing buying momentum as the pair approaches overbought territory. The 50-day EMA at $1.3502 provides a critical support zone, and a close above this level would further validate the bullish outlook.

Given the recent breakout above key levels, a buy position above $1.3507 could be considered, targeting $1.3561 with a stop loss at $1.3470 to manage potential downside risk.

The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the potential for further gains if the pair sustains above the $1.3502 pivot point.

Related News

- GOLD Price Analysis – Sep 03, 2024

- AUD/USD Price Analysis – Sep 03, 2024

- USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 27, 2024

USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Sep 3, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD breaks above $1.3502, signaling potential for further gains.

- RSI at 60.80 indicates increasing bullish momentum.

- Key resistance at $1.3549 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading around $1.3525, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after a period of decline. The pair has recently broken above the 50-day EMA, which is now acting as immediate support around $1.3502, suggesting a shift in momentum. The current price action indicates that if the pair maintains this level, it could extend gains towards higher resistance levels.

Key resistance levels to watch include $1.3549, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by $1.3577 and $1.3614. These levels represent critical barriers where selling pressure could re-emerge. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.3502 (pivot point), with further support levels at $1.3482 and $1.3447.

Technical indicators are favoring a continuation of the bullish trend. The RSI is currently at 60.80, reflecting the increasing buying momentum as the pair approaches overbought territory. The 50-day EMA at $1.3502 provides a critical support zone, and a close above this level would further validate the bullish outlook.

Given the recent breakout above key levels, a buy position above $1.3507 could be considered, targeting $1.3561 with a stop loss at $1.3470 to manage potential downside risk.

The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the potential for further gains if the pair sustains above the $1.3502 pivot point.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.35076

Take Profit – 1.35614

Stop Loss – 1.34706

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.45

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$538/ -$370

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$53/ -$37

USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 27, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- Sell Entry: Below $1.35164, targeting $1.34225.

- Immediate Support: $1.3424, with next supports at $1.3360 and $1.3287.

- RSI at 23: Signals oversold conditions, but bearish trend persists.

USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.34774, down 0.04% for the day, reflecting a mild bearish trend.

The pivot point to watch is $1.3516. If the pair continues to trade below this level, we could see further downside pressure, with immediate support at $1.3424.

Should this support break, the next levels to watch are $1.3360 and $1.3287, where additional buying interest may emerge.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sitting at $1.3612, which is above the current price and acts as a resistance level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory. While this suggests that a rebound could be possible, the overall trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below the pivot point of $1.3516.

In conclusion, traders might consider selling below $1.35164, targeting a take profit around $1.34225, with a stop loss at $1.35731 to manage risk.

The immediate resistance levels to watch on the upside are $1.3574, $1.3633, and $1.3685. However, the bearish bias dominates unless the price breaks above these resistance levels.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.35164

Take Profit – 1.34225

Stop Loss – 1.35731

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$939/ -$567

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$93/ -$56

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 27, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 27, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European hours on Tuesday, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to halt its downward trend and remained under pressure around 1.3466, hitting an intra-day low of 1.3463.

This decline in the USD/CAD pair could be attributed to the improving commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid rising crude oil prices.

On the other hand, the US Dollar initially saw modest gains but later turned bearish, possibly due to comments from key Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggesting that interest rate cuts may be forthcoming.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at Jackson Hole, hinted at potential policy adjustments and expressed confidence that inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target.

Impact of Rising Oil Prices and US Interest Rate Expectations on USD/CAD

As we mentioned above, crude oil prices have surged due to concerns about potential supply disruptions. These fears are driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the possible shutdown of Libyan oil fields.

Meanwhile, tensions remain high as Hamas rejected Israel's new conditions in ceasefire talks, insisting that Israel follow the terms set by US President Joe Biden and the UN Security Council.

Despite these worries, US Air Force General C.Q. Brown noted that fears of a broader conflict in the region have eased, with recent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah not escalating further.

Moreover, oil prices also gained support from growing expectations of US interest rate cuts. Such cuts could boost fuel demand by stimulating economic activity in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.

Lower borrowing costs are likely to drive economic growth, increasing the need for oil and keeping prices elevated.

This news is likely to strengthen the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD), pushing the USD/CAD pair lower. Rising oil prices benefit the CAD, while expectations of US interest rate cuts weaken the USD.

Potential US Interest Rate Cuts Weaken USD/CAD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar failed to sustain its upward trend and turned bearish amid comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Powell mentioned that "the time has come for policy to adjust," signaling a potential shift in interest rates. However, he did not provide specifics on when rate cuts would start or how large they might be.

In response, market expectations for a rate cut have grown. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders now fully anticipate at least a 25 basis point reduction by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting.

This indicates that investors believe the Fed will soon take action to support the economy, leading to a weaker US Dollar.

Therefore, this news is likely to weaken the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), leading to a decline in the USD/CAD pair.

The anticipation of US interest rate cuts reduces USD strength, while higher oil prices support the CAD.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.34774, down 0.04% for the day, reflecting a mild bearish trend.

The pivot point to watch is $1.3516. If the pair continues to trade below this level, we could see further downside pressure, with immediate support at $1.3424.

Should this support break, the next levels to watch are $1.3360 and $1.3287, where additional buying interest may emerge.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sitting at $1.3612, which is above the current price and acts as a resistance level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory. While this suggests that a rebound could be possible, the overall trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below the pivot point of $1.3516.

In conclusion, traders might consider selling below $1.35164, targeting a take profit around $1.34225, with a stop loss at $1.35731 to manage risk.

The immediate resistance levels to watch on the upside are $1.3574, $1.3633, and $1.3685. However, the bearish bias dominates unless the price breaks above these resistance levels.

Related News

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 27, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 27, 2024

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 20, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair staged a modest recovery from a one-month low, holding around the 1.3625 level.

The rebound can be attributed to a mix of factors including a decline in Crude Oil prices and a modest recovery in the US dollar.

Despite the bounce, the pair remains below the mid-1.3600s as traders adopt a cautious approach ahead of crucial Canadian inflation data.

Impact of Crude Oil Price Decline and Canadian Inflation Data on USD/CAD Pair

Crude Oil prices have been on a downward trend, largely due to optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire in Gaza, which has reduced the risk premium associated with oil prices.

As Crude Oil prices decline, the Canadian Dollar, which is closely tied to oil exports, has weakened.

This decline in oil prices, coupled with expectations of a lower headline Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI), is influencing the USD/CAD pair.

The Canadian CPI is anticipated to show a decrease for the second consecutive month, signaling a slowdown in inflation.

This could lead the Bank of Canada (BoC) to adopt a more accommodative policy stance, potentially easing monetary policy in response to weak inflation and a slack labor market. Such a scenario would likely weigh on the CAD, bolstering the USD/CAD pair.

Impact of US Dollar Strength and Fed Policy on USD/CAD Pair

On the US side, the dollar has shown a modest recovery from its lowest level since January. This recovery is partly due to a general rebound in the US dollar amid reduced risk aversion and market optimism.

However, the upside for the Greenback remains limited as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start its rate-cutting cycle in September.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's forthcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes are expected to provide further guidance on the Fed's policy trajectory.

Market sentiment currently reflects an 85.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, up from previous expectations. This outlook could cap gains for the USD, even as it provides support to the USD/CAD pair against a weakening CAD.

Therefore, the recent decline in Crude Oil prices and anticipated Canadian inflation data are likely to strengthen the USD/CAD pair.

Meanwhile, the US dollar's modest recovery and expectations of Fed rate cuts are also influencing the USD/CAD pair, although further gains may be capped by the Fed's anticipated policy adjustments.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

USD/CAD is trading at $1.36189, holding steady with no significant movement. The pair is currently hovering near the pivot point at $1.3643, a critical level that could determine the next direction.

Immediate resistance is at $1.3679, with further resistance at $1.3710 and $1.3739. On the downside, key support levels to watch are $1.3603, followed by $1.3572 and $1.3544.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory, which could suggest a potential bounce or limited downside movement.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.3712, suggesting that the overall trend is bearish.

Given the current technical setup, USD/CAD appears to be under selling pressure, especially if it breaks below the $1.3643 pivot point.

A move below this level could trigger further downside toward the $1.3603 support and potentially lower.

However, if the pair manages to break above $1.3643, we could see a test of the immediate resistance at $1.3679.

Conclusion: The recommended strategy is to sell below $1.36430, with a target of $1.35837 and a stop loss at $1.36789.

Related News

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 20, 2024

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 13, 2024

USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 20, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD is in oversold territory with RSI at 23.

- Key pivot point at $1.3643 could determine the next move.

- Selling pressure likely if the pair breaks below $1.3643.

USD/CAD is trading at $1.36189, holding steady with no significant movement. The pair is currently hovering near the pivot point at $1.3643, a critical level that could determine the next direction.

Immediate resistance is at $1.3679, with further resistance at $1.3710 and $1.3739. On the downside, key support levels to watch are $1.3603, followed by $1.3572 and $1.3544.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory, which could suggest a potential bounce or limited downside movement.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.3712, suggesting that the overall trend is bearish.

Given the current technical setup, USD/CAD appears to be under selling pressure, especially if it breaks below the $1.3643 pivot point.

A move below this level could trigger further downside toward the $1.3603 support and potentially lower.

However, if the pair manages to break above $1.3643, we could see a test of the immediate resistance at $1.3679.

Conclusion: The recommended strategy is to sell below $1.36430, with a target of $1.35837 and a stop loss at $1.36789.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.36430

Take Profit – 1.35837

Stop Loss – 1.36789

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$593/ -$359

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$59/ -$35

USD /CAD

Daily Trade Ideas

USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 13, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

- USD/CAD trades just below the key pivot point at $1.3748, signaling potential bearish momentum.

- Immediate resistance at $1.3789 aligns with the 50-day EMA; failure to break could confirm a downward trend.

- Support is at $1.3688; breaking this level may accelerate selling pressure.

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.37326, down 0.02% on the 4-hour chart, showing a slight decline as it hovers just below the pivot point at $1.3748.

This level is crucial as it represents a potential turning point for the pair. If USD/CAD fails to break above this pivot, we might see further bearish movement.

The immediate resistance is at $1.3789, aligned with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.3788.

This area is a key resistance zone; a break above it could shift the momentum back to the bulls.

However, if the pair continues to trade below this resistance, the bearish outlook remains strong.

The next resistance levels are at $1.3841 and $1.3890, but these will only come into play if the pair manages to climb above $1.3789.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.3688, with further support levels at $1.3645 and $1.3603.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41, suggesting there’s room for more downside before the pair becomes oversold.

Given the current technical setup, selling below $1.37475 with a target of $1.3688 and a stop loss at $1.37834 seems to be a sound strategy.

The market's inability to clear the 50-day EMA indicates that sellers are likely to maintain control in the short term.

USD/CAD  Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD  Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.37475

Take Profit – 1.28008

Stop Loss – 1.27173

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$593/ -$359

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$59/ -$35

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 13, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 13, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair continued its downward trend, trading around the 1.3735 level and reaching an intra-day low of 1.3727.

This bearish movement is due to the weakening US dollar, which has been pressured by market expectations of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

On the other hand, the decline in crude oil prices is putting downward pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, which is somewhat mitigating the overall decline of the USD/CAD pair.

US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Impact USD/CAD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has continued to weaken, driven by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. This decline is largely due to market expectations of a potential 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in September.

Meanwhile, the upcoming US inflation data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, are expected to show cooling inflation for July.

This could further support the Fed's potential easing of policy, contributing to the ongoing bearish trend in the dollar.

Therefore, the US dollar's ongoing weakness, driven by expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut and cooling inflation data, is putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. This trend is exacerbated by the dovish Federal Reserve stance.

Impact of Falling Oil Prices and Bank of Canada Rate Cuts on the USD/CAD Pair

On the CAD front, the upticks in the USD/CAD pair might gain traction due to falling crude oil prices, which impact the Canadian dollar, a commodity-linked currency.

Canada’s largest export is crude oil, and the recent drop in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to around $75.40 per barrel poses challenges for the CAD.

This decline is due to concerns about weaker demand and OPEC's reduced 2024 growth forecast for China, which continues to pressure the CAD.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at both the September and October meetings, which could further weaken the Canadian dollar.

The combination of lower oil prices and potential rate cuts could fuel the CAD's strength, influencing the USD/CAD pair's movements.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.37326, down 0.02% on the 4-hour chart, showing a slight decline as it hovers just below the pivot point at $1.3748.

This level is crucial as it represents a potential turning point for the pair. If USD/CAD fails to break above this pivot, we might see further bearish movement.

The immediate resistance is at $1.3789, aligned with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.3788. This area is a key resistance zone; a break above it could shift the momentum back to the bulls.

However, if the pair continues to trade below this resistance, the bearish outlook remains strong.

The next resistance levels are at $1.3841 and $1.3890, but these will only come into play if the pair manages to climb above $1.3789.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.3688, with further support levels at $1.3645 and $1.3603.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41, suggesting there’s room for more downside before the pair becomes oversold.

Given the current technical setup, selling below $1.37475 with a target of $1.3688 and a stop loss at $1.37834 seems to be a sound strategy.

The market's inability to clear the 50-day EMA indicates that sellers are likely to maintain control in the short term.

Related News

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 13, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 13, 2024

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 06, 2024

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 06, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Aug 6, 2024
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining well-bid around the 1.3840 level and hitting an intra-day high of 1.3857.

This upward trend can be attributed to sliding crude oil prices, which undermine the Loonie and lend support amid a stronger USD. However, dovish Fed expectations and the risk-on mood might cap gains for the USD and the pair.

Meanwhile, the concerns about an economic downturn in China and softer US macro data suggest that the world's largest economy is slowing faster than initially expected.

This is likely to dent fuel demand and drag crude oil prices lower for the fourth straight day, which, in turn, undermines demand for the commodity-linked Loonie.

USD Gains and Fed Expectations Impacting USD/CAD Outlook

On the USD front, the broad-based US dollar (USD) gained traction due to increased demand and rising US Treasury bond yields, which supported the USD/CAD pair.

However, changes in global risk sentiment and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve might limit further gains for the USD.

The market is currently anticipating a nearly 100% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

This anticipation could cap further increases in US bond yields and the dollar, making USD/CAD bulls cautious unless significant economic news from the US or Canada emerges.

Impact of Oil Prices and Geopolitical Concerns on the USD/CAD Pair

On the other hand, worries about a potential economic downturn in China, combined with weaker-than-expected US economic data, have led to a decline in crude oil prices for the fourth consecutive day.

This drop in oil prices is also affecting the Canadian dollar (Loonie), which is closely tied to oil.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns about a possible broader conflict in the Middle East could limit further declines in oil prices.

Given these factors, it is wise to wait for stronger signs of a rebound before expecting the USD/CAD pair to continue its recent upward trend.

Therefore, the decline in Crude Oil prices and concerns about China's economy and Middle East conflict are pressuring the Canadian dollar. This may limit the USD/CAD pair's upward momentum until conditions improve.

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at $1.38366, down 0.11%, reflecting a mild bearish sentiment in the market. The currency pair remains just below the pivot point at $1.3859, indicating a struggle to gain upward traction.

Immediate resistance is situated at $1.3864, with further hurdles at $1.3908 and $1.3946. Overcoming these resistance levels is crucial for the USD/CAD to shift back to a bullish trajectory.

On the support side, immediate levels are at $1.3781, followed by $1.3745 and $1.3706. These support levels are pivotal for traders looking to manage risk, as a fall below them could signal continued downward pressure.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1.3839, which is slightly above the current price and could act as a short-term resistance point.

This technical indicator highlights the cautious sentiment in the market, as traders await stronger signals to determine the next directional move.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, suggesting a neutral stance in the market. This balanced reading implies that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold, presenting an opportunity for traders to capitalize on potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.

Given the current setup, a strategic entry point would be to buy below $1.38152, with a take-profit target of $1.38811 and a stop-loss at $1.37805.

Related News

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 06, 2024

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 06, 2024

USD/CAD Price Analysis – July 30, 2024

USD /CAD