USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance at 143.51; a breakout could lead to gains toward 144.24.
- Key support at 141.69; a breach could trigger further downside toward 140.70.
- USD/JPY remains supported above its 50-day EMA at 142.61, signaling continued bullish momentum.
USD/JPY is currently trading at 142.817, up by 0.32%, as the pair continues to strengthen alongside the U.S. Dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the price remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 142.61, which provides key support, keeping the bullish momentum intact.
The pair has shown some consolidation but maintains an overall upward trend, with potential for further gains if resistance levels are cleared.
Immediate resistance lies at 143.51. A break above this level could open the door for further upside, targeting higher resistance zones at 144.24 and 145.16.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, signaling moderate bullish momentum, leaving room for additional upward movement.
On the downside, immediate support is found at 141.69. If this level fails, the next support sits at 140.70, with a potential deeper pullback toward 139.78 if selling pressure intensifies.
A break below these levels could signal a bearish reversal, though the current uptrend is supported by the 50 EMA at 142.61.
In conclusion, USD/JPY maintains a bullish outlook as long as it stays above the pivot point at 142.36.
Traders should watch for a break above 143.51, which could trigger further gains, while a fall below 141.69 could signal a near-term bearish shift.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 142.350
Take Profit – 143.500
Stop Loss – 141.650
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1150/ -$700
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$115/ -$70
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Sep 12, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair broke its two-day losing streak, trading around 142.90.
This recovery can be attributed to rising odds of a smaller interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, which has supported the US Dollar (USD).
The recent remarks by Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura, stating that there is "no preset idea on the pace of further rate hikes," kept the Japanese Yen (JPY) subdued.
Impact of BoJ’s Gradual Rate Hikes and USD Strength on USD/JPY:
The BoJ's gradual approach to rate hikes contrasts with the more aggressive policies of the US and Europe. While Tamura’s comments reinforced the notion of a slower tightening cycle in Japan, the exact timing of when rates will reach 1% remains dependent on Japan’s economic and price conditions.
Meanwhile, the USD gained strength due to diminishing expectations of a larger Fed rate cut, contributing to the USD/JPY rally.
US CPI Report and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive USD/JPY:
On the US front, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline inflation dropping to a three-year low of 2.5% year-on-year. Despite this, core inflation remained steady, reducing the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Fed.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has sharply declined to 15%, with markets now fully anticipating a 25 bps cut at the September meeting.
This outlook has provided upward momentum for USD/JPY, as expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Fed bolster the USD against the Yen.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is currently trading at 142.817, up by 0.32%, as the pair continues to strengthen alongside the U.S. Dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the price remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 142.61, which provides key support, keeping the bullish momentum intact.
The pair has shown some consolidation but maintains an overall upward trend, with potential for further gains if resistance levels are cleared.
Immediate resistance lies at 143.51. A break above this level could open the door for further upside, targeting higher resistance zones at 144.24 and 145.16.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, signaling moderate bullish momentum, leaving room for additional upward movement.
On the downside, immediate support is found at 141.69. If this level fails, the next support sits at 140.70, with a potential deeper pullback toward 139.78 if selling pressure intensifies.
A break below these levels could signal a bearish reversal, though the current uptrend is supported by the 50 EMA at 142.61.
In conclusion, USD/JPY maintains a bullish outlook as long as it stays above the pivot point at 142.36. Traders should watch for a break above 143.51, which could trigger further gains, while a fall below 141.69 could signal a near-term bearish shift.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Neutral Bias: Trading around the 50-day EMA at 144.505, with RSI at 50 indicating balanced momentum.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at 145.303, with potential targets at 146.118 and 147.088.
- Support Levels: Key support at 143.686, with deeper levels at 142.903 and 142.119.
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 144.518, down by 0.06% as it flirts with the key pivot point set at 144.699.
This level will be crucial in determining the pair’s next move. The pair is trading near its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 144.505, which is acting as a critical support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 50, indicating a balanced market without a clear momentum bias at this point.
If the pair fails to hold above the 144.699 pivot point, immediate support is expected at 143.686, followed by deeper levels at 142.903 and 142.119.
A sustained drop below these support levels could intensify the bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines.
Traders may consider entering a short position below 144.757, targeting 143.717 as the take-profit level while placing a stop-loss at 145.276 to manage risk.
On the upside, resistance starts at 145.303, a level that needs to be breached for any bullish momentum to gain traction.
If the pair manages to break this resistance, the next targets would be 146.118 and 147.088.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 144.757
Take Profit – 143.717
Stop Loss – 145.276
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1040/ -$519
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$104/ -$51
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 29, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair fluctuated around the 144.60 level. This range-bound behavior is expected to change with the upcoming US PCE inflation report and Japanese economic data.
The US PCE report could drive significant movement in the USD depending on the inflation figures.
Additionally, anticipated policy shifts from the Bank of Japan and the release of Tokyo CPI data may bolster the JPY. Traders are closely monitoring these factors to predict the future direction of the USD/JPY pair.
Market Focus: US PCE Inflation Report and Fed Policy Speculation Amid Upcoming Data Releases
On the US front, the market's focus is on the PCE inflation report, which is anticipated to drive the next major move in the US Dollar (USD).
The report will significantly influence speculation regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a strong expectation for the Fed to pivot towards policy normalization in September.
However, traders are divided on the magnitude of potential interest rate cuts, with the 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing tool showing a 34.5% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) cut, while others favor a 25 bps reduction.
In addition, investors are closely monitoring revised estimates for Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending August 23.
The jobless claims data is particularly important as the Fed is increasingly concerned about weakening labor market conditions.
Japanese Yen Boosted by BoJ Rate Hike Expectations and Anticipation of Tokyo CPI Data
On the Japanese front, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are bolstering the Japanese Yen (JPY). BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to adjusting monetary easing if economic activity and prices align with projections.
Additionally, investors are awaiting the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, scheduled for release on Friday, with forecasts predicting a steady 2.2% growth in the CPI, excluding Fresh Food.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 144.518, down by 0.06% as it flirts with the key pivot point set at 144.699.
This level will be crucial in determining the pair’s next move. The pair is trading near its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 144.505, which is acting as a critical support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 50, indicating a balanced market without a clear momentum bias at this point.
If the pair fails to hold above the 144.699 pivot point, immediate support is expected at 143.686, followed by deeper levels at 142.903 and 142.119. A sustained drop below these support levels could intensify the bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines.
Traders may consider entering a short position below 144.757, targeting 143.717 as the take-profit level while placing a stop-loss at 145.276 to manage risk.
On the upside, resistance starts at 145.303, a level that needs to be breached for any bullish momentum to gain traction. If the pair manages to break this resistance, the next targets would be 146.118 and 147.088.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point: $146.1270 is the key level to watch.
- Support Levels: $144.3320, $143.2110, $141.7870.
- Resistance Levels: $147.3240, $149.3650, $150.9000.
The USD/JPY pair is experiencing a modest uptick, trading at $145.486. The pair is hovering near a crucial pivot point at $146.1270, which will play a key role in determining the next direction.
If the price fails to sustain above this level, the downside risks could increase, with immediate support at $144.3320, followed by $143.2110 and $141.7870.
On the upside, if the pair manages to break above the pivot, it could face resistance at $147.3240, $149.3650, and ultimately $150.9000.
The RSI is currently at 41, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. Additionally, the 50-day EMA at $146.9510 suggests that there’s room for further downside correction if the current momentum does not pick up.
Conclusion: Consider selling below $146.161, targeting $143.998 with a stop loss at $147.340.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 146.161
Take Profit – 143.998
Stop Loss – 147.340
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$216/ -$117
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$21/ -$11
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 22, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair gained ground and remained well bid around 145.87 level, hitting the intra-day high of 145.91 level.
However, the reason for its upward momentum was supported by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) indication of a possible rate cut in September, coupled with Japan's trade deficit data that dragged the Japanese Yen (JPY) lower.
Moving ahead, traders are closely monitoring upcoming US economic reports, such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales.
These data releases are crucial as they offer insights into the US economy and can create short-term trading opportunities by potentially influencing market movements.
US Dollar Gains Strength Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has recently gained strength, ending a four-day decline. However, the Fed Minutes released on Wednesday revealed that most Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, provided inflation continues to cool.
The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at 5.3% since July 2023, and markets are anticipating a cut of up to a full percentage point by the end of the year.
Despite the US dollar gaining traction from a slight recovery in Treasury yields, this anticipation of a rate cut might weigh on the USD and limit the upside potential of USD/JPY in the near term.
Mixed Japanese Data and BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Provide Limited Support for JPY
On the other hand, Japan's economic data and expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are providing some support for the USD/JPY pair.
On the data front, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for August rose to 49.5, slightly below the expected 49.8, while the Services PMI improved to 54.0.
Although these figures highlight a mixed economic outlook, they are overshadowed by Japan's record trade deficit, which has weakened the Yen.
Moreover, economists anticipate that the BoJ might raise interest rates by the end of the year. However, the Reuters poll indicates a median forecast of a 0.50% rate at year-end, marking a 25 basis points increase.
The market will closely watch BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech on Friday for any hawkish remarks that could lift the JPY against the USD.
Therefore, the mixed Japanese economic data and expectations of a BoJ rate hike may offer limited support for the JPY. However, Japan’s record trade deficit weakens the Yen, likely keeping the USD/JPY pair stronger in the near term.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is experiencing a modest uptick, trading at $145.486. The pair is hovering near a crucial pivot point at $146.1270, which will play a key role in determining the next direction.
If the price fails to sustain above this level, the downside risks could increase, with immediate support at $144.3320, followed by $143.2110 and $141.7870.
On the upside, if the pair manages to break above the pivot, it could face resistance at $147.3240, $149.3650, and ultimately $150.9000. The RSI is currently at 41, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment.
Additionally, the 50-day EMA at $146.9510 suggests that there’s room for further downside correction if the current momentum does not pick up.
Conclusion: Consider selling below $146.161, targeting $143.998 with a stop loss at $147.340.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 22, 2024
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Sell Entry: Consider a sell limit at $147.850, targeting $145.
- Immediate Resistance: Key resistance at $149.365; watch for a potential breakout.
- Support Levels: Immediate support at $145.514; a break could lead to further declines.
USD/JPY is currently trading at $147.211, showing a slight decline as it moves closer to the pivot point at $147.864.
The pair has been in a tight range, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The 4-hour chart reveals that the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $146.386 is providing solid support, suggesting that the pair might find some stability at these levels before making its next move.
Immediate resistance is seen at $149.365, with further resistance at $150.900 and $152.597. If USD/JPY breaks above these levels, we could see a continuation of the uptrend.
However, the downside risks are also significant. Immediate support is at $145.514, followed by $143.462 and $141.787. A break below these supports could accelerate the downward momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near neutral levels, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential volatility.
Given the current setup, traders should be cautious about both upside and downside risks.
For those looking to trade, a sell limit order around $147.850 could be effective, with a take-profit target at $145. Setting a stop-loss at $149.350 would help manage potential losses if the market unexpectedly turns bullish.
Overall, while the technical indicators suggest some downside risk, it’s essential to watch the key levels closely.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 147.850
Take Profit – 145
Stop Loss – 149.350
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.19
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2850/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$285/ -$150
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 15, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair experienced a bearish trend and edged lower around 147.28 level as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD).
This downward movement in the USD/JPY pair was driven by Japan's stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q2, raising expectations for a potential hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
While the Japanese Yen strengthens on the back of positive GDP figures, the US Dollar faces pressure from potential Fed rate cuts and mixed economic signals.
This combination of factors is driving the USD/JPY pair lower, with ongoing market adjustments to central bank expectations likely to influence future movements.
Japan's Robust GDP Growth and BoJ Policy Expectations Bolster JPY
On the JPY front, Japan's GDP growth for Q2 surged by 0.8%, surpassing market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the strongest quarterly growth since early 2023.
The annualized GDP growth also reached 3.1%, exceeding the expected 2.1%. This robust economic performance is bolstering expectations that the BoJ might shift towards a more hawkish policy.
This underpinned the JPY currency and contributed to the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo's remarks about a gradual economic recovery driven by improving wages and income, along with the BoJ's goal of a neutral rate "at least around 1%" as a medium-term target, support the Yen's strength.
Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations and US CPI Data on USD/JPY Decline
On the US front, the pair decline is also influenced by the Federal Reserve’s potential policy decisions.
Despite recent improvements in Treasury yields, the anticipation of a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is pressuring the US Dollar, which was seen as another key factor that put pressure on USD/JPY pair.
On the data front, US CPI data for July showed a moderate 2.9% annual increase, leading to speculation about the extent of future Fed rate cuts.
Traders are leaning towards a smaller 25 basis point reduction, with a 36% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut, as indicated by CME FedWatch.
This dovish sentiment from the Fed, coupled with concerns about labor market conditions, is adding to the downward pressure on the USD.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is currently trading at $147.211, showing a slight decline as it moves closer to the pivot point at $147.864.
The pair has been in a tight range, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The 4-hour chart reveals that the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $146.386 is providing solid support, suggesting that the pair might find some stability at these levels before making its next move.
Immediate resistance is seen at $149.365, with further resistance at $150.900 and $152.597. If USD/JPY breaks above these levels, we could see a continuation of the uptrend.
However, the downside risks are also significant. Immediate support is at $145.514, followed by $143.462 and $141.787. A break below these supports could accelerate the downward momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near neutral levels, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential volatility.
Given the current setup, traders should be cautious about both upside and downside risks.
For those looking to trade, a sell limit order around $147.850 could be effective, with a take-profit target at $145. Setting a stop-loss at $149.350 would help manage potential losses if the market unexpectedly turns bullish.
Overall, while the technical indicators suggest some downside risk, it’s essential to watch the key levels closely.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Aug 15, 2024
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 08, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During Thursday's European session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its bearish trend, remaining under pressure near the 146.25 level and reaching an intra-day low of 145.43. This decline is primarily due to the strengthening of the Japanese Yen (JPY), which gained traction after the release of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions (SoP) from the July 30-31 meeting.
The SoP indicated that officials acknowledged the need for more rate hikes to address inflationary pressures driven by higher import prices. This acknowledgment bolstered the Yen, contributing to the downward movement of the USD/JPY pair. On the other side, the US dollar losing traction was another key factor keeping the USD/JPY pair lower.
Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations on USD and Its Effect on USD/JPY Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar (USD) has also been under pressure, exacerbating the bearish trend of the USD/JPY pair. However, the anticipation of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been weighing on the USD. Investors are expecting that the Fed will soon implement substantial rate reductions to support economic growth, which diminishes the appeal of holding USD. This expectation contributes to the USD’s decline against the Yen.
Impact of BoJ’s Summary of Opinions on Japanese Yen Strength and Market Stability
On the flip side, the Japanese Yen's recent strengthening is directly linked to the BoJ’s latest Summary of Opinions. The BoJ's acknowledgment of the need for further rate hikes to curb inflation has bolstered investor confidence in the Yen. The prospect of higher interest rates in Japan supports the Yen by increasing its yield compared to the USD.
However, the BoJ’s stance also highlights potential market instability. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida’s statement that rate hikes would not be pursued during market instability underscores the cautious approach of the central bank.
Therefore, the Japanese Yen's strengthening, driven by anticipated BoJ rate hikes, and concerns about market instability have intensified the USD/JPY pair's bearish trend, leading to further declines in the USD.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at $145.99, marking a 0.44% decline. The 4-hour chart indicates a pivotal point at $146.93.
Immediate resistance levels are identified at $148.54, $150.10, and $152.34, which could act as barriers to any upward movement.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $144.96, with further support at $143.69 and $141.79, offering potential stabilization points if the price continues to fall.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, suggesting that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $148.89, indicating bearish momentum as the price is below this level.
A move above the pivot point of $146.93 could signal a reversal, while staying below this level may reinforce the bearish outlook.
In light of the current technical indicators and key price levels, the recommended strategy is to enter a sell limit order at $146.932, with a take profit target at $144.024 and a stop loss at $148.498.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY is trading at $145.99, down 0.44%.
- RSI indicates a neutral to bearish sentiment at 45.
- Entry: Sell Limit at $146.932, Take Profit at $144.024, Stop Loss at $148.498.
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at $145.99, marking a 0.44% decline. The 4-hour chart indicates a pivotal point at $146.93.
Immediate resistance levels are identified at $148.54, $150.10, and $152.34, which could act as barriers to any upward movement.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $144.96, with further support at $143.69 and $141.79, offering potential stabilization points if the price continues to fall.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, suggesting that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $148.89, indicating bearish momentum as the price is below this level.
A move above the pivot point of $146.93 could signal a reversal, while staying below this level may reinforce the bearish outlook.
In light of the current technical indicators and key price levels, the recommended strategy is to enter a sell limit order at $146.932, with a take profit target at $144.024 and a stop loss at $148.498.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Limit 146.932
Take Profit – 144.024
Stop Loss – 148.498
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$290/ -$156
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$29/ -$15