Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward rally and remained well bid above the 1.1000 level. However, the upticks were primarily driven by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank, lifting the EUR/USD pair. Investors await November’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (Core PCE) on Friday, projected to rise 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY.

ECB's Cautious Stance Favors Euro Amid Global Uncertainties

It is worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President, Luis de Guindos, mentioned on Thursday that it's too early to consider easing monetary policies. He assured that the ECB doesn't anticipate a technical recession in the Eurozone and expressed a positive stance on an EU fiscal reform deal, believing it would ease market uncertainties.

On a similar note, Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated that maintaining current interest rates is necessary for a while. However, he suggested that the first rate cut might happen later than what investors are currently expecting, possibly not until around mid-2024.

Therefore, this news suggests a cautious approach by the ECB, supporting the Euro against the US Dollar.

Fed's Cautious Stance and Weaker US GDP Propel EUR/USD Pair

Moreover, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken a more cautious approach, hinting at possible 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts in the latter part of 2024. On the economic front, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q3 expanded by 4.9%, slightly below the market's 5.2% expectation.

Hence, this less-than-stellar US data, coupled with the Fed's expectation of three rate cuts, puts downward pressure on the US Dollar. This, in turn, provides support for the Euro against the Dollar (USD), benefiting the EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

On December 22, the EUR/USD pair presents a nuanced technical landscape as it trades slightly down by 0.09% at 1.1002. This subtle decline comes amid a complex interplay of economic factors and market sentiments. The pair is currently navigating a crucial juncture, with a pivot point set at $1.0765. On the upside, it encounters immediate resistance at $1.0885, with further barriers at $1.1025 and $1.1151. Conversely, the currency pair finds support at $1.0619, followed by lower levels at $1.0493 and $1.0366, which will be vital in cushioning any downward movement.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for EUR/USD stands at 64, suggesting a predominantly bullish market sentiment but still shy of overbought territory. This implies there might be some room left for upward momentum before any potential pullback. In contrast, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at a modest 0.00017, just above its signal line at 0.00223, indicating that while there is potential for upward momentum, it might be limited.

A key observation in the chart patterns is the presence of a triple top pattern with resistance extending at $1.1006. This pattern usually signifies a critical resistance level, and its breach could pave the way for a bullish breakout. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading just above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0984, reinforcing a short-term bullish bias. However, the triple top pattern's resistance level is crucial and needs to be closely monitored.

Given these technical indicators, the immediate outlook for EUR/USD is cautiously bullish, especially if it manages to break out above the $1.1008 mark. Such a breakout could lead the pair to test higher resistance levels in the short term. Conversely, failure to breach this critical resistance might see the pair retreating towards its support levels.

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Daily Price Outlook

- S&P 500 climbs to 4,746.76, facing resistance at $4,685 and $4,772, indicating a potential upward trend.

- RSI at 65 suggests bullish sentiment, but MACD at -2.87 signals possible bearish pressure.

- Bearish engulfing pattern below $4,750 hints at a potential downtrend, with a cautious outlook below $4,775.

On December 22, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a notable surge, rising by 1.03% to 4,746.76. This upward trajectory indicates a renewed vigor in the market, as the index surpasses its pivot point at $4,632. Looking ahead, the S&P 500 faces immediate resistance at $4,685, followed by further barriers at $4,772 and $4,826. On the downside, support levels are established at $4,545, $4,489, and $4,435, which will be crucial in the event of any retracement.

The technical indicators paint a complex picture for the S&P 500. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65, hovering near the upper threshold of bullish sentiment but not yet indicating overbought conditions. This suggests that there is still some room for upward movement. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a contrasting scenario with a value of -2.87 against a signal of 45.17, hinting at potential bearish pressure.

Furthermore, the index's price action remains above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $4,731, typically a sign of a bullish short-term trend. Despite this, a bearish engulfing pattern observed on the daily timeframe, particularly below the $4,750 level, suggests a potential downtrend in the S&P 500.

Given these mixed signals, the overall outlook for the S&P 500 appears cautiously bearish, especially if it remains below the critical $4,775 level. In the short term, investors and traders should anticipate the index testing its immediate resistance levels. A successful breach of these could indicate a shift towards bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to overcome these levels might lead to a pullback towards lower support zones.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 4752

Take Profit – 4670

Stop Loss – 4810

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$820/ -$580

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$82/ -$58 (edited)

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish bias of the US dollar, the EUR/USD currency pair was unable to break its previous-day losing streak. It experienced mild losses and continues to be held below the 1.1000 mark during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. However, the downward trend can be attributed to the downbeat Eurozone data. The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November reported a -0.6% month-on-month (MoM) figure, compared to the previous -0.5%. This result was weaker than expected, raising concerns about economic health and potentially hindering the Euro's performance.

Eurozone Inflation Dynamics and ECB Meeting Highlights

It is worth noting that Eurozone inflation in November fell short of market expectations, primarily attributed to a decline in energy prices. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November recorded a month-on-month decrease of -0.6%, slightly weaker than anticipated. The annual inflation rate stood at 2.4%, in line with analysts' predictions. However, examining core inflation (excluding food and energy prices), it registered at 3.6% year-on-year, marking the lowest figure since April 2022.

It should be noted that the European Central Bank (ECB) recently conducted a meeting and made it clear that they did not discuss the possibility of cutting interest rates. However, they did issue a caution regarding a potential spike in December inflation due to colder weather, which typically leads to increased energy demand and prices. This situation could constrain the strength of the Euro and present a challenge for the EUR/USD pair.

US Housing Data and Upcoming Economic Indicators in Europe and the US

Moreover, Building Permits in the US declined to 1.46 million in November, falling short of the expected 1.47 million, while Housing Starts rose to 1.56 million, surpassing the consensus of 1.36 million. The mixed US housing data with a decline in Building Permits and a rise in Housing Starts could influence the EUR/USD pair, potentially contributing to market volatility.

Looking forward, the focus in the market will be on several key economic indicators. In Germany, investors will be watching the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November. For the Eurozone, attention turns to October's Current Account and Construction Output. Additionally, investors will keep their eye on December's Consumer Confidence for the Eurozone. On the U.S. side, there will be the release of Existing Home Sales data.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

As of December 20, the EUR/USD pair is navigating a delicate balance in the forex market. Currently priced at 1.0969, it shows a modest decline of 0.1%. The pair finds itself fluctuating around significant technical levels, with a pivot point established at 1.0754. Resistance levels are observed at 1.0879, 1.1021, and 1.1146, while support is anchored at 1.0611, 1.0487, and 1.0362.

The technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65 leans towards a bullish sentiment but stops short of the overbought threshold, indicating potential room for growth. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a near-zero value of 0.00006 against a signal of 0.00263, suggesting a lack of strong momentum in either direction.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0957 slightly underpins the current price, reinforcing a short-term bullish trend. Nevertheless, a bearish engulfing candle pattern near 1.09770 signals potential bearish bias, indicating that the pair is likely to stay bearish below 1.1005.

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Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD trades at 1.0969, facing resistance at 1.0879 and 1.1021, with a pivot point at 1.0754 signaling key market movements.

- RSI at 65 suggests bullish potential, but a bearish engulfing pattern near 1.09770 points to possible downward pressure.

- Overall trend appears bearish below 1.09770; short-term forecasts indicate a test of resistance levels with close monitoring of technical indicators.

As of December 20, the EUR/USD pair is navigating a delicate balance in the forex market. Currently priced at 1.0969, it shows a modest decline of 0.1%. The pair finds itself fluctuating around significant technical levels, with a pivot point established at 1.0754. Resistance levels are observed at 1.0879, 1.1021, and 1.1146, while support is anchored at 1.0611, 1.0487, and 1.0362.

The technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65 leans towards a bullish sentiment but stops short of the overbought threshold, indicating potential room for growth. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a near-zero value of 0.00006 against a signal of 0.00263, suggesting a lack of strong momentum in either direction.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0957 slightly underpins the current price, reinforcing a short-term bullish trend. Nevertheless, a bearish engulfing candle pattern near 1.09770 signals potential bearish bias, indicating that the pair is likely to stay bearish below 1.1005.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.0981

Take Profit – 1.0905

Stop Loss – 1.1050

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$761/ -$688

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$76/ -$68

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD Sees Slight Uptick: Pivot point at $1.0756 marks key for trend analysis.

- Mixed Technical Indicators: RSI shows mild bullishness; MACD hints at potential downtrend.

- 50 EMA as Key Support: EUR/USD shows potential for an uptrend, indicated by recent Doji candlestick over 50 EMA.

The EUR/USD pair has shown a modest yet positive performance recently, registering a 0.15% increase to 1.09115. This movement reflects the ongoing adjustments in the forex market, where subtle shifts often speak volumes about underlying economic sentiments.

Currently, the pivot point for EUR/USD is situated at $1.0756, which acts as a critical indicator for future movements. The immediate resistance lies at $1.0881, with further barriers at $1.1024 and $1.1145. These levels will be crucial for traders to watch, as a breach of these could signify stronger bullish momentum. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0618, followed by $1.0484 and $1.0359, marking key levels where the bearish trend could find a halt.

The technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating a slight bullish sentiment. An RSI above 50 often signifies positive momentum, yet it's not far enough from the midline to suggest a strong trend. Conversely, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) values, with a MACD of -0.00064 and a signal line at 0.00296, imply a potential downward movement. This divergence calls for a careful analysis of forthcoming market changes.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0918 currently supports the EUR/USD uptrend. The recent Doji candlestick pattern close over the 50 EMA indicates a weakening downtrend and a possible shift towards buying.

In summary, the overall trend for EUR/USD appears bullish, especially if it sustains above $1.08960. The short-term forecast suggests that the pair may test higher resistance levels in the upcoming days. However, the mixed signals from RSI and MACD necessitate vigilant market observation, as these could indicate shifting trends or potential reversal points.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08916

Take Profit – 1.09663

Stop Loss – 1.08400

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$747/ -$516

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$74/ -$51

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the weaker Eurozone data, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum and surged to gains near 1.0920 level. However, the reason for its upward rally can be attributed to the US dollar bearish bias. Notably, the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled an end to its monetary policy tightening cycle last Wednesday, with the "dot plot" indicating at least three 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts in 2024. This dovish stance has undermined the US Dollar (USD) and contributed to the gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Challenges in Eurozone Business Activity Raise Recession Concerns

It's worth noting that Eurozone business activity unexpectedly declined in December, signaling that the economy is likely in a recession. The preliminary Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI fell to 47.0, below the market's expected 48.0 and November's 47.6. This marks the seventh consecutive month below the growth threshold of 50.

Furthermore, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.2, falling below expectations, and the Services PMI fell to 48.1, missing the estimated 49.0. This data suggests a probable contraction in the Eurozone economy in Q4, contrary to the European Central Bank's projections. Consequently, the Euro (EUR) faces selling pressure but it was short-lived.

Mixed Signals in US Economic Indicators and Fed's Dovish Stance

It should be noted that the S&P Global Composite PMI hit a promising five-month high at 51.0 in December, up from 50.7. However, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to its lowest in four months, slipping from 49.4 to 48.2. On a positive note, the Services PMI rose to 51.3 in December from 50.8 in November.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve (Fed) suggested they're done tightening monetary policy, planning three rate cuts in 2024. Yet, some key Fed officials disagreed, hinting that early rate cuts might not happen. This disagreement led to a short-covering rally for the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, recovering from its lowest point since July 31. Despite the rebound, the USD didn't gain much ground due to the Fed's overall dovish stance and positive market sentiment. This tends to weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, contributing to gains in the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has shown a modest yet positive performance recently, registering a 0.15% increase to 1.09115. This movement reflects the ongoing adjustments in the forex market, where subtle shifts often speak volumes about underlying economic sentiments.

Currently, the pivot point for EUR/USD is situated at $1.0756, which acts as a critical indicator for future movements. The immediate resistance lies at $1.0881, with further barriers at $1.1024 and $1.1145. These levels will be crucial for traders to watch, as a breach of these could signify stronger bullish momentum. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0618, followed by $1.0484 and $1.0359, marking key levels where the bearish trend could find a halt.

The technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating a slight bullish sentiment. An RSI above 50 often signifies positive momentum, yet it's not far enough from the midline to suggest a strong trend. Conversely, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) values, with a MACD of -0.00064 and a signal line at 0.00296, imply a potential downward movement. This divergence calls for a careful analysis of forthcoming market changes.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0918 currently supports the EUR/USD uptrend. The recent Doji candlestick pattern close over the 50 EMA indicates a weakening downtrend and a possible shift towards buying.

In summary, the overall trend for EUR/USD appears bullish, especially if it sustains above $1.08960. The short-term forecast suggests that the pair may test higher resistance levels in the upcoming days. However, the mixed signals from RSI and MACD necessitate vigilant market observation, as these could indicate shifting trends or potential reversal points.

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Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD pair shows a slight increase, facing resistance at $1.0962.

- RSI suggests overbought conditions, hinting at a possible trend reversal.

- Short-term outlook is bullish, with a focus on potential breakout above $1.1000.

In the ever-evolving forex market, the EUR/USD pair on December 15 presents a scenario of cautious optimism. Trading at 1.09980, the pair sees a modest increase of 0.07%, reflecting a tempered bullish sentiment. The pair’s technical posture is anchored around a pivot point of $1.0866, with its trajectory shaped by a series of key price levels.

Immediate resistance is encountered at $1.0962, followed by higher ceilings at $1.1035 and $1.1104. On the downside, supports are formed at $1.0797, $1.0693, and $1.0624, crucial for maintaining the pair's stability. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 77 signals an overbought condition, suggesting the pair might be approaching a potential reversal point. The MACD, with a value of 0.00198 below its signal line of 0.01, indicates a weakening of the current bullish trend.

The pair's positioning above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0943 further underlines its short-term bullish trend. However, a double-top pattern near the $1.1008 mark poses a significant resistance, potentially limiting further gains. A successful breach of this level could indicate a stronger bullish momentum, while failure to do so may result in a pullback.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair exhibits a bullish trend, contingent upon a breakout above the $1.1000 mark. The short-term forecast anticipates a testing of these resistance levels, with market participants closely watching for a possible upward trajectory or a shift in trend.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Stop 1.10145

Take Profit – 1.10920

Stop Loss – 1.09676

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.65

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$775/ -$469

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$77/ -$46

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, gaining additional momentum near the 1.1000 mark. However, the reason for this upward rally can be attributed to the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In response to the ECB's decision, the Euro (EUR) attracted buyers, lifting the EUR/USD currency pair.

Meanwhile, the Greenback experienced downward pressure following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, along with projections from Fed officials indicating three anticipated rate cuts in the coming year. This was seen as another crucial factor contributing to the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

ECB Maintains Steady Interest Rates, Providing Stability to EUR/USD Pair Amid Economic Uncertainties

It's worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) chose to keep interest rates steady, as many predicted. This includes the main refinancing operations at 4.50%, the marginal lending facility at 4.75%, and the deposit facility at 4.00%, in line with expectations.

Despite expectations for rate cuts due to lower inflation and price pressure, the central bank is standing firm on maintaining record-high borrowing costs. This move by the central bank is aimed at maintaining stability in the face of economic uncertainties.

Therefore, the ECB's decision to keep key interest rates unchanged, contrary to expectations of cuts, has stabilized the EUR/USD pair. The Euro gained support, reflecting the central bank's commitment to maintaining record-high borrowing costs despite economic uncertainties.

US Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance and Economic Data Impact: EUR/USD Pair Gains Momentum

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve chose to keep its benchmark fed funds rate range unchanged at 5.25%–5.50% on Wednesday. Despite this, the Greenback faced downward pressure after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks, and Fed officials projected three rate cuts in the coming year.

On Thursday, US Retail Sales exceeded market expectations, growing 0.3% in November, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the previous reading. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 9 were 202,000, beating the market consensus of 220,000.

However, the positive US data failed to boost the Greenback. Investors, still processing the Fed's monetary policy meeting outcome and the anticipation of future rate cuts, kept the currency under pressure across the board.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair experienced upward momentum as the US Federal Reserve's dovish tone and projections of future rate cuts weakened the Greenback, despite positive US economic data failing to provide support.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In the ever-evolving forex market, the EUR/USD pair on December 15 presents a scenario of cautious optimism. Trading at 1.09980, the pair sees a modest increase of 0.07%, reflecting a tempered bullish sentiment. The pair’s technical posture is anchored around a pivot point of $1.0866, with its trajectory shaped by a series of key price levels.

Immediate resistance is encountered at $1.0962, followed by higher ceilings at $1.1035 and $1.1104. On the downside, supports are formed at $1.0797, $1.0693, and $1.0624, crucial for maintaining the pair's stability. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 77 signals an overbought condition, suggesting the pair might be approaching a potential reversal point. The MACD, with a value of 0.00198 below its signal line of 0.01, indicates a weakening of the current bullish trend.

The pair's positioning above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0943 further underlines its short-term bullish trend. However, a double-top pattern near the $1.1008 mark poses a significant resistance, potentially limiting further gains. A successful breach of this level could indicate a stronger bullish momentum, while failure to do so may result in a pullback.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair exhibits a bullish trend, contingent upon a breakout above the $1.1000 mark. The short-term forecast anticipates a testing of these resistance levels, with market participants closely watching for a possible upward trajectory or a shift in trend.

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Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD sees a slight decline to 1.07863 amid key technical resistance levels.

- Neutral RSI at 50 and MACD above the signal line indicate a balanced market.

- Market focus on FOMC meeting outcome for potential shifts in EUR/USD dynamics.

On December 13th, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting a subtle downward movement, currently trading at 1.07863, marking a 0.08% decline. This movement reflects the pair's response to broader market dynamics and impending economic decisions.

In the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is navigating a critical juncture defined by significant technical levels. The pivot point is identified at $1.0690, offering a baseline for potential shifts in the currency's trajectory. On the upper side, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.0792, followed by higher barriers at $1.0861 and $1.0967. Conversely, should the pair succumb to bearish pressures, it will encounter support at $1.0623, with subsequent levels at $1.0521 and $1.0417.

The technical indicators provide a deeper insight into the pair's current state. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 50, indicating a neutral market sentiment neither leaning towards overbought nor oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00063, slightly above its signal line at -0.00045, suggesting a potential, albeit uncertain, upward momentum.

Notably, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0783 is acting as a significant resistance level. The presence of Doji and spinning top candles just under this EMA level hints at a selling bias among traders, especially as the market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome.

In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a bearish tendency below the $1.0783 mark, the overall trend is somewhat indecisive. Traders and investors are likely to maintain a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals from the upcoming FOMC decision, which could significantly influence the pair's short-term direction.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07877

Take Profit – 1.07305

Stop Loss – 1.08234

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$572/ -$357

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$57/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the German ZEW Indicator surpassing expectations at 12.8, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to halt its downward trend and dipped to the 1.0790 level during early European trading hours on Wednesday. However, the primary reason for this downward movement can be attributed to modest strength in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, traders appear cautious about taking strong positions as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are set to announce their decisions on monetary policy on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

US Inflation Stability and Fed Rate Expectations Impacting EUR/USD Dynamics

It's worth noting that the recent US inflation report largely aligned with expectations. In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up by 0.1% from October, with the yearly rate showing a slight easing to 3.1%. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, saw a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual rise of 4.0%, consistent with predictions.

Looking ahead, the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5% in December. There's an 80% chance of a rate cut in May, and the market predicts further cuts totaling a full percentage point by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The US inflation report meeting expectations brings stability. It might influence the EUR/USD pair, with the market anticipating the Federal Reserve to maintain rates, potentially impacting the pair's dynamics.

ECB's Rate Decision and Positive Economic Sentiment Boost Euro Against Dollar

Moreover, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep interest rates steady in its December meeting, despite eurozone inflation nearing the 2.0% target. The ECB aims to delay expectations of a rate cut, emphasizing potential upward price risks, especially from rising wages. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the need for clear evidence that tight labor markets won't trigger inflation.

In recent news, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved, coming in at 12.8 compared to the previous 9.8, exceeding the expected 8.8. However, the Current Situation Index dipped to -77.1 from -79.8, below the anticipated -75.5. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment also rose to 23.0 from 13.8, surpassing the estimated 12.0.

Therefore, the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates and the positive German ZEW Economic Sentiment will support the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar, potentially influencing the EUR/USD pair positively.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

On December 13th, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting a subtle downward movement, currently trading at 1.07863, marking a 0.08% decline. This movement reflects the pair's response to broader market dynamics and impending economic decisions.

In the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is navigating a critical juncture defined by significant technical levels. The pivot point is identified at $1.0690, offering a baseline for potential shifts in the currency's trajectory. On the upper side, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.0792, followed by higher barriers at $1.0861 and $1.0967. Conversely, should the pair succumb to bearish pressures, it will encounter support at $1.0623, with subsequent levels at $1.0521 and $1.0417.

The technical indicators provide a deeper insight into the pair's current state. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 50, indicating a neutral market sentiment neither leaning towards overbought nor oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00063, slightly above its signal line at -0.00045, suggesting a potential, albeit uncertain, upward momentum.

Notably, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0783 is acting as a significant resistance level. The presence of Doji and spinning top candles just under this EMA level hints at a selling bias among traders, especially as the market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome.

In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a bearish tendency below the $1.0783 mark, the overall trend is somewhat indecisive. Traders and investors are likely to maintain a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals from the upcoming FOMC decision, which could significantly influence the pair's short-term direction.

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