Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Dec 6, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD steadies, with sights set on 1.0909 resistance.

- RSI hints at possible rally from oversold conditions.

- The Euro awaits bullish confirmation above 1.07930.

The Euro hovers with a cautious uptick against the Dollar, registering a minuscule gain of 0.01%, to stand pat at the 1.0800 level. This muted movement belies the currency's attempt to carve out a recovery path amidst a complex economic backdrop.

EUR/USD's current technical landscape is demarcated by a pivot point at 1.0804, a bastion above which the pair may strive to ascend. The immediate resistance awaiting conquest lies at 1.0909, with further bulwarks erected at 1.0992 and 1.1097. Conversely, a descent would be cushioned by supports at 1.0723, 1.0611, and perhaps more critically at 1.0507.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) loiters at the 30 mark, teetering on the edge of the oversold territory, a potential harbinger of an impending rally should the Euro gain momentum. Complementing this narrative is the MACD, which, at -0.00042, flirts with its signal line, poised for a possible bullish crossover.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently reads at 1.0816, a mere whisker away from the pair's price, suggesting a latent tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears.

Chart analysis paints a picture of consolidation with an inclination towards an upward break. Should the Euro sustain above 1.07930, a bullish outlook could be solidified, setting the stage for a test of loftier resistances.

In summary, EUR/USD's trajectory is cautiously optimistic above 1.07930, with the market's eyes trained on resistance levels for confirmation of the Euro's stamina in the near term.

 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07930

Take Profit – 1.08640

Stop Loss – 1.07447

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$710/ -$483

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$71/ -$48

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 06, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Dec 6, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the positive Eurozone PMI data for November, the EUR/USD pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well offered below the significant 1.0800 mark. However, the decline in value can be attributed to the discouraging German data, which is putting pressure on the Euro. Concurrently, the bearish US dollar is seen as a key factor that could help in limiting the EUR/USD pair's further declines.

Eurozone PMI Trends and US Economic Dynamics

It is worth noting that the IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI, a measure that combines both the manufacturing and service sectors, continued to stay below 50.0 in November. This means a sustained contraction in private sector output across the Eurozone.

Specifically, the Eurozone Composite PMI for November stood at 47.6, showing a marginal improvement from the previous month's 47.1 and surpassing market expectations set at 47.1. Concurrently, the IHS Markit Services PMI increased to 48.7 from the earlier figure of 48.2.

Furthermore, the US Dollar is losing ground and hovering around 104.00, amid the decline in US Treasury bond yields. Recent economic data released on Tuesday indicated that the US ISM Services PMI for November surpassed expectations, surging to 52.7 from the previous 51.8.

On the flip side, JOLTS Job Openings experienced a reversal, decreasing by 617,000 to 8.73 million in October. This marks the lowest point since March 2021, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

German Factory Orders Decline and Future Market Focus

Furthermore, Germany's Factory Orders took an unexpected hit in October, as per data from the Federal Statistics Office. This suggests a setback in the recovery of the German manufacturing sector. Month-on-month, orders for goods 'Made in Germany' fell by 3.7%, contrasting with a 0.2% increase in September and missing the expected 0% reading.

On an annual basis, Germany's Industrial Orders plunged by 7.3% in the reported month, compared to the previous fall of 4.3%. This disappointing data is putting pressure on the Euro, resulting in the EUR/USD pair losing 0.08% for the day and trading at 1.0785 at the moment.

 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The Euro hovers with a cautious uptick against the Dollar, registering a minuscule gain of 0.01%, to stand pat at the 1.0800 level. This muted movement belies the currency's attempt to carve out a recovery path amidst a complex economic backdrop.

EUR/USD's current technical landscape is demarcated by a pivot point at 1.0804, a bastion above which the pair may strive to ascend. The immediate resistance awaiting conquest lies at 1.0909, with further bulwarks erected at 1.0992 and 1.1097. Conversely, a descent would be cushioned by supports at 1.0723, 1.0611, and perhaps more critically at 1.0507.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) loiters at the 30 mark, teetering on the edge of the oversold territory, a potential harbinger of an impending rally should the Euro gain momentum. Complementing this narrative is the MACD, which, at -0.00042, flirts with its signal line, poised for a possible bullish crossover.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently reads at 1.0816, a mere whisker away from the pair's price, suggesting a latent tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears.

Chart analysis paints a picture of consolidation with an inclination towards an upward break. Should the Euro sustain above 1.07930, a bullish outlook could be solidified, setting the stage for a test of loftier resistances.

In summary, EUR/USD's trajectory is cautiously optimistic above 1.07930, with the market's eyes trained on resistance levels for confirmation of the Euro's stamina in the near term.

Related News

    EUR/USD

    Daily Trade Ideas

    EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 4, 2023
    Eurusd

    Daily Price Outlook

    - EUR/USD trades at 1.08, down 0.05%, with a bearish bias below $1.08955.

    - RSI at 36 suggests bearish momentum; trading below 50 EMA confirms the trend.

    - Key focus on support at $1.0613 and resistance at $1.0804 in the short term.

    The EUR/USD pair is currently witnessing a minor downtrend, trading at around 1.08, marking a decrease of 0.05%. This slight dip places the pair in a cautious zone as it navigates through key technical levels.

    The pivot point for the pair stands at $1.0728, which serves as a critical juncture for determining its short-term direction. Resistance levels are observed at $1.0804, $1.0911, and $1.0991, while the immediate support lies at $1.0613. Further supports are established at $1.0514 and $1.0400, which could play a significant role in the coming sessions.

    Technical indicators provide a deeper insight into the pair's current sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, indicating a bearish sentiment as it is below the 50 mark. This suggests that the pair is not yet in oversold territory but is certainly leaning towards a bearish bias.

    Additionally, the pair is trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0913, further affirming the short-term bearish trend. This positioning below the 50 EMA is a signal for potential downward movement in the near future.

    Chart patterns indicate that the pair is currently operating in a bearish zone, particularly below the $1.08955 level. This pattern suggests a continuation of the bearish trend unless a significant reversal occurs above this threshold.

    The overall trend for the EUR/USD pair is bearish, especially below the $1.08955 level. Traders and investors should brace for potential testing of lower support levels, particularly if the pair fails to reclaim higher resistance levels. The market will closely monitor any changes in the fundamental landscape, which could impact this technical outlook.

     EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
     EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

    Entry Price – Sell Below 1.0895

    Take Profit – 1.0830

    Stop Loss – 1.0945

    Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

    Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$652/ -$498

    Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$65/ -$49

    EUR/USD

    Technical Analysis

    EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 04, 2023

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Dec 4, 2023
    Eurusd

    Daily Price Outlook

    The EUR/USD currency pair succeeded to stop its three-day losing streak and drew some strong bids around above 1.0890 marks. However, the reason for its upward rally could be attributed to the weaker US dollar and lower US Treasury bond yields amid speculation that the Federal Reserve has reached its peak of the rate hike cycle and will ease policy soon.

    Conversely, the statement by ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau, hinting at a potential rate cut in 2024 due to inflation concerns, could exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

    Market Impact of Powell's Dovish Stance and Weak US Manufacturing Data on the EUR/USD Pair

    The broad-based US dollar failed to stop its downward trend and remained pressured amid comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday. Powell's remarks hinted that the Fed might not raise interest rates further and could even consider easing in 2024. He mentioned it's too early to be confident about the Fed's stance or when they might make policy changes.

    On another note, the US manufacturing sector experienced a sluggish performance in November. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell below expectations, registering at 46.7, indicating a modest slowdown. Employment in the manufacturing sector also faced a decline, dropping from 46.8 to 45.8. Therefore, Powell's dovish comments have weakened the US Dollar, potentially benefiting the EUR/USD pair.

    ECB's Policy Outlook and Its Potential Impact on EUR/USD Pair

    Moreover, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated last week that the ECB isn't thinking about cutting borrowing costs right now but might think about it in 2024. However, the slowdown in inflation is making the ECB pay close attention to its 2% inflation goal, which hasn't been so clear since summer 2021. This could suggest a possible change in how the ECB manages its money policies.

    Hence, Francois Villaeroy de Galhau's remarks will likely influence the EUR/USD pair, as the ECB's cautious stance on cutting borrowing costs contrasts with potential easing from the Fed.

     EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
     EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

    EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

    The EUR/USD pair is currently witnessing a minor downtrend, trading at around 1.08, marking a decrease of 0.05%. This slight dip places the pair in a cautious zone as it navigates through key technical levels.

    The pivot point for the pair stands at $1.0728, which serves as a critical juncture for determining its short-term direction. Resistance levels are observed at $1.0804, $1.0911, and $1.0991, while the immediate support lies at $1.0613. Further supports are established at $1.0514 and $1.0400, which could play a significant role in the coming sessions.

    Technical indicators provide a deeper insight into the pair's current sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, indicating a bearish sentiment as it is below the 50 mark. This suggests that the pair is not yet in oversold territory but is certainly leaning towards a bearish bias.

    Additionally, the pair is trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0913, further affirming the short-term bearish trend. This positioning below the 50 EMA is a signal for potential downward movement in the near future.

    Chart patterns indicate that the pair is currently operating in a bearish zone, particularly below the $1.08955 level. This pattern suggests a continuation of the bearish trend unless a significant reversal occurs above this threshold.

    The overall trend for the EUR/USD pair is bearish, especially below the $1.08955 level. Traders and investors should brace for potential testing of lower support levels, particularly if the pair fails to reclaim higher resistance levels. The market will closely monitor any changes in the fundamental landscape, which could impact this technical outlook.

    Related News

      EUR/USD

      Daily Trade Ideas

      EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Dec 1, 2023
      Eurusd

      Daily Price Outlook

      - EUR/USD shows modest gains; resistance ahead at $1.0874.

      - RSI at 38 suggests bearish sentiment; room for growth.

      - Watch for upward channel breakout at 1.0922 for market direction.

      As the year winds down, the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a nuanced dance between key technical indicators and market dynamics. The currency pair, trading at 1.0905, has seen a modest increase of 0.15% over the last 24 hours. This move reflects the current market's cautious optimism, driven by various global economic factors, including policy decisions from major central banks and shifting investor sentiment.

      At the heart of this analysis is the pair's position relative to its key price levels. The pivot point stands at $1.0807, with immediate resistance observed at $1.0874. Further resistance levels are mapped at $1.0919 and $1.0986. These points are crucial to understanding the potential for upward movement. Conversely, the support levels at $1.0762, $1.0716, and $1.0668 provide a safety net against any downward trends.

      The technical indicators offer a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 38, suggesting a bearish sentiment without veering into oversold territory. This could indicate potential room for upward movement before a peak is reached. On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers around zero, providing no clear directional bias.

      A key observation is the EUR/USD's proximity to the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0900. Currently, the pair is trading just above this marker, hinting at a short-term bullish trend. However, an upward channel breakout at 1.0922 signals a potential sell trade, suggesting that the pair might be poised for a reversal if it fails to sustain above this threshold.

      EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

      Entry Price – Sell Below 1.0923

      Take Profit – 1.0828

      Stop Loss – 1.0989

      Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$954/ -$652

      Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$95/ -$65

      EUR/USD

      Technical Analysis

      EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 01, 2023

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Dec 1, 2023
      Eurusd

      Daily Price Outlook

      As the week draws to a close, the Euro (EUR) finds renewed strength against the US Dollar (USD), with the EUR/USD pair approaching just over the 1.0900 mark. This rebound comes after a period of relative steadiness, signaling a potential shift in the currency dynamics.

      USD Index Retreats Amid Stable US Yields

      Conversely, the US Dollar has relinquished some of its recent gains, with the USD Index (DXY) retreating to the vicinity of 103.40. This pullback occurs in the context of a general lack of direction in US yields across various timeframes, contributing to the Dollar's tempered momentum.

      Investor Focus on Central Bank Policies

      The market's current stability reflects a broad anticipation of future interest rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) in early 2024. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, gauging the potential impact on currency valuations.

      Key Upcoming Events and Speeches

      Looking ahead, significant focus is placed on upcoming speeches by ECB's Andrea Enria, Frank Elderson, and President Christine Lagarde. These addresses are expected to provide further insights into the ECB's policy direction.

      US Economic Indicators in Spotlight

      In the United States, the spotlight shifts to the ISM Manufacturing index, followed by Construction Spending and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November. These indicators will offer a glimpse into the current state of the US manufacturing sector and broader economic health.

      Market Sentiments and Global Influences

      The EUR is currently showing a slight edge against the USD, while US and German yields exhibit mixed trends. Market consensus leans towards an expectation of the Fed initiating rate cuts in spring 2024, while the ECB is anticipated to maintain its current stance until the second quarter of 2024. Additionally, the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI's rise above 50 in November adds an international dimension to the market's outlook. Later in the session, ECB President Lagarde's speech and Fed Chair Powell's participation in a roundtable discussion are keenly awaited for potential market-moving insights.

      EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

      As the year winds down, the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a nuanced dance between key technical indicators and market dynamics. The currency pair, trading at 1.0905, has seen a modest increase of 0.15% over the last 24 hours. This move reflects the current market's cautious optimism, driven by various global economic factors, including policy decisions from major central banks and shifting investor sentiment.

      At the heart of this analysis is the pair's position relative to its key price levels. The pivot point stands at $1.0807, with immediate resistance observed at $1.0874. Further resistance levels are mapped at $1.0919 and $1.0986. These points are crucial to understanding the potential for upward movement. Conversely, the support levels at $1.0762, $1.0716, and $1.0668 provide a safety net against any downward trends.

      The technical indicators offer a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 38, suggesting a bearish sentiment without veering into oversold territory. This could indicate potential room for upward movement before a peak is reached. On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers around zero, providing no clear directional bias.

      A key observation is the EUR/USD's proximity to the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0900. Currently, the pair is trading just above this marker, hinting at a short-term bullish trend. However, an upward channel breakout at 1.0922 signals a potential sell trade, suggesting that the pair might be poised for a reversal if it fails to sustain above this threshold.

      Related News

        EUR/USD

        Daily Trade Ideas

        EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Nov 29, 2023
        Eurusd

        Daily Price Outlook.

        - EUR/USD remains buoyant around 1.10018, underpinned by a risk-on market mood.

        - Support is firm at 1.09642, while the next resistance awaits at 1.10499.

        - The RSI at 66.03 and trading above the 50 EMA signal continued bullish momentum.

        The EUR/USD pair is consolidating gains after its recent ascent, currently trading around the 1.10018 level. The currency is in a holding pattern, digesting its climb to levels not seen in 15 weeks, as it navigates the psychological 1.1000 threshold. The uptick is part of a broader risk-on sentiment in the market, which has pressured the US Dollar across the board.

        The technical outlook for the pair remains constructive as it stabilizes above the 1.09642 mark, which is a key support level. On the upside, the immediate resistance is located at 1.10499, with further potential to test 1.11030 if the bullish momentum continues.

        The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 66.03, suggesting that buying pressure remains, though the pair is not yet in the overbought territory. The RSI's current level indicates that the pair has room to extend gains before encountering overextended conditions.

        Moreover, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.08553 acts as a dynamic support level, confirming the positive bias in the market. A sustained trade above this EMA will further bolster buyers' confidence.

        In summary, the EUR/USD exhibits a bullish stance, with the potential to scale higher if it can maintain its foothold above immediate support levels. The pair's trajectory will likely be influenced by upcoming economic releases, including Eurozone consumer confidence and US GDP figures.

         EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
         EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

        Entry Price – Sell Below 1.1005

        Take Profit – 1.09703

        Stop Loss – 1.10257

        Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

        Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$347/ -$207

        Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$34/ -$20

        EUR/USD

        Technical Analysis

        EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 29, 2023

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Nov 29, 2023
        Eurusd

        Daily Price Outlook

        The EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward rally, marking the fifth consecutive session with a surge to around 1.1000 during the European session on Wednesday. However, the driving force behind this upward trend appears to be the weakened US Dollar, influenced by a less hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

        Meanwhile, traders appear hesitant to take strong positions as they closely monitor economic data from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday. Spain and Germany are expected to release preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, with both countries anticipated to report a slowdown in the annual inflation rate. Besides this, the European Commission is scheduled to release its Economic Sentiment Indicator.

        Weakened US Dollar and Positive Economic Data Propel EUR/USD Pair Upward

        The broad-based US dollar has been facing downward pressure around 102.60, desipite positive US economic data. It should be noted that the Housing Price Index for September beat expectations, showing a steady 0.6% increase, indicating a resilient and growing housing market.

        Moreover, the US CB Consumer Confidence Index rose to 102.0 in November, up from the revised 99.1. However, the Greenback is impacted by falling US Treasury yields and comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, hinting at a flexible approach to interest rates if inflation decreases.

        Therefore, the positive US economic data and the weakened US dollar contribute to an upward trend in the EUR/USD pair.

        Market Focus: US Q3 GDP & Federal Reserve's Beige Book Release

        Moving on, investors are turning their attention to the third-quarter preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized figures in the US. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is set to release the Beige Book later today, offering insights into the overall economic growth in the United States. These releases are likely to influence market sentiments and guide investment decisions.

         EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
         EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

        EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

        The EUR/USD pair is consolidating gains after its recent ascent, currently trading around the 1.10018 level. The currency is in a holding pattern, digesting its climb to levels not seen in 15 weeks, as it navigates the psychological 1.1000 threshold. The uptick is part of a broader risk-on sentiment in the market, which has pressured the US Dollar across the board.

        The technical outlook for the pair remains constructive as it stabilizes above the 1.09642 mark, which is a key support level. On the upside, the immediate resistance is located at 1.10499, with further potential to test 1.11030 if the bullish momentum continues.

        The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 66.03, suggesting that buying pressure remains, though the pair is not yet in the overbought territory. The RSI's current level indicates that the pair has room to extend gains before encountering overextended conditions.

        Moreover, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.08553 acts as a dynamic support level, confirming the positive bias in the market. A sustained trade above this EMA will further bolster buyers' confidence.

        In summary, the EUR/USD exhibits a bullish stance, with the potential to scale higher if it can maintain its foothold above immediate support levels. The pair's trajectory will likely be influenced by upcoming economic releases, including Eurozone consumer confidence and US GDP figures.

        Related News

          EUR/USD

          Daily Trade Ideas

          EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 27, 2023
          Eurusd

          Daily Price Outlook

          - EUR/USD shows a cautious uptick to 1.09, indicating a mildly bullish market sentiment with a focus on short-term gains.

          - Key technical levels include a pivot point at 1.0987, with resistances up to 1.1165 and supports down to 1.0806, shaping the pair's potential movement.

          - Technical indicators like RSI at 64 and a neutral MACD suggest room for upward movement, while the 50 EMA at 1.0930 serves as a potential short-term resistance.

          The EUR/USD pair, currently trading around 1.09 with a modest increase of 0.05%, reflects a cautiously optimistic market sentiment. This slight upward movement signifies a potential strengthening in the short term.

          The pair's technical landscape is defined by key price levels: a pivot point at 1.0987, immediate resistances at 1.1033, 1.1100, and 1.1165, and supports at 1.0918, 1.0873, and 1.0806. These levels are crucial in determining the pair's short-term trajectory, with resistances testing the pair's ability to sustain an upward trend and supports offering potential rebound points in case of a decline.

          The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, suggesting a bullish sentiment without yet reaching overbought conditions. This indicator points towards potential room for further upward movement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a neutral stance with both the MACD and signal lines at 0.00, indicating a balanced market with no clear direction in momentum.

          The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at 1.0930, with the EUR/USD trading slightly below this level. This positioning suggests a tentative bullish trend, with the 50 EMA potentially acting as a short-term resistance.

          Chart patterns do not present a clear directional bias, leaving the door open for various interpretations based on upcoming economic events and data releases.

          Conclusively, the EUR/USD pair exhibits a cautiously bullish trend, particularly if it remains above the 1.0920 mark. The short-term outlook suggests the possibility of the pair testing the immediate resistance at 1.1033, contingent on maintaining the current momentum. This forecast, however, remains subject to change based on unfolding global economic dynamics and policy decisions.

           EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

          Entry Price – Buy Above 1.09204

          Take Profit – 1.10071

          Stop Loss – 1.08819

          Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

          Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$867/ -$385

          Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$86/ -$38

          EUR/USD

          Technical Analysis

          EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2023

          By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
          Nov 27, 2023
          Eurusd

          Daily Price Outlook

          Despite the German economy experiencing a modest economic slowdown in the second half of the year, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward rally, maintaining a strong position around 1.2620 marks during the early European session on Monday. However, this upward trend can be attributed to the bearish US Dollar, which supported the EUR/USD pair. However, the upticks in the EUR/USD pair may be limited due to the challenges faced by the German economy.

          Moving forward, traders seem hesitant to take strong positions, as they are awaiting key data releases. The focus will be on the German and Eurozone inflation data, along with US GDP data, as these factors are expected to provide fresh impetus to the market.

          Germany's Economic Slowdown and its Impact on the EUR/USD Pair

          It's worth noting that Germany's economy experienced a slight deceleration in the third quarter of the year. According to the latest data, there was a 0.1% contraction in quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a 0.4% annual decline.

          Meanwhile, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos highlighted that economic risks in Europe are leaning towards the downside. He also mentioned the potential for inflation to rise in the coming months but suggested that maintaining stable interest rates could contribute to its control.

          Furthermore, Germany experienced a setback as its constitutional court declared the reallocation of unused debt from COVID-19 emergency funding to current spending plans unlawful. This ruling resulted in a 60 billion Euro gap in the government's budget, notably affecting climate policies.

          Therefore, these factors could exert pressure on the Euro and pose challenges for the EUR/USD pair.

          Recent Developments in US Financial Markets and Economic Indicators

          Despite improvements in US Treasury yields, the US Dollar failed to stop its downward trend and still losing ground, while the 10-year US bond yield held firm at 4.49% for the fourth straight session. Hence, the bearish US dollar was seen as another key factor that helped the EUR/USD pair to stay bid.

          Looking forward, discussions are underway regarding potential adjustments to the monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in the upcoming year. However, recent statements from Fed officials have introduced some uncertainty.

          On the data front, the S&P Global Composite PMI held steady at 50.7 in November. Nevertheless, the Manufacturing PMI experienced a slight dip, sliding to 49.4 from 50.0, falling below the expected 49.8.

          On a more positive note, the Services PMI showed modest growth, reaching 50.8, up from the previous month's 50.6 and surpassing the anticipated 50.4.

           EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
           EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

          The EUR/USD pair, currently trading around 1.09 with a modest increase of 0.05%, reflects a cautiously optimistic market sentiment. This slight upward movement signifies a potential strengthening in the short term.

          The pair's technical landscape is defined by key price levels: a pivot point at 1.0987, immediate resistances at 1.1033, 1.1100, and 1.1165, and supports at 1.0918, 1.0873, and 1.0806. These levels are crucial in determining the pair's short-term trajectory, with resistances testing the pair's ability to sustain an upward trend and supports offering potential rebound points in case of a decline.

          The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, suggesting a bullish sentiment without yet reaching overbought conditions. This indicator points towards potential room for further upward movement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a neutral stance with both the MACD and signal lines at 0.00, indicating a balanced market with no clear direction in momentum.

          The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at 1.0930, with the EUR/USD trading slightly below this level. This positioning suggests a tentative bullish trend, with the 50 EMA potentially acting as a short-term resistance.

          Chart patterns do not present a clear directional bias, leaving the door open for various interpretations based on upcoming economic events and data releases.

          Conclusively, the EUR/USD pair exhibits a cautiously bullish trend, particularly if it remains above the 1.0920 mark. The short-term outlook suggests the possibility of the pair testing the immediate resistance at 1.1033, contingent on maintaining the current momentum. This forecast, however, remains subject to change based on unfolding global economic dynamics and policy decisions.

          Related News

            EUR/USD