Daily Price Outlook

Despite the strong US dollar, the EUR/USD currency pair is bouncing back after a two-day slide, hovering near a 10-month low reached on Tuesday. It's now trading higher around 1.0480 during early European trading on Wednesday. The rebound is thanks to better-than-expected Eurozone PMI data, which is boosting confidence in the Euro. However, Eurozone Retail Sales didn't fare as well, falling 2.1% YoY in August, worse than the expected -1.2%. This disappointing retail sales figure might limit the gains for the EUR/USD pair as it counters the positive impact of the PMI data.

EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid Fed's Rate Outlook

It's important to note that the EUR/USD pair is under pressure due to concerns about the US Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has pulled back from an 11-month high it hit on Tuesday, and it's currently trading around 106.90. The US Dollar got stronger because of good US job numbers and higher yields on US Treasury bonds. The 10-year US Bond yield reached its highest level since 2007, reaching 4.85% on Wednesday. This was driven by better-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data, which showed there were 9.61 million job openings in August, beating expectations.

Furthermore, the Fed has a more aggressive stance on keeping interest rates up for a longer time, which is boosting confidence in the US dollar. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester even suggested they might raise rates at the next meeting if the economy stays strong. However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic took a more patient approach, saying there's no rush to change rates. Investors are waiting for more US job data, including the ADP report on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

Eurozone Economic Highlights and ECB Outlook

On the Euro side, the positive Eurozone HCOB Purchase Manufacturing Index (PMI) data could offer some support for the Euro. The report for September showed that the Composite PMI improved slightly to 47.2 from the previous 47.1, which was expected to stay the same. German Composite PMI also inched up to 46.4 from 46.2 before, and the Services PMI increased to 50.3, surpassing the expected 49.8.

Thereby, the European Central Bank (ECB) is being careful about raising interest rates. Some officials are hopeful about inflation, while others, like ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, are cautious. These different opinions show that the Eurozone's economic situation is uncertain and could affect the Euro's strength.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has exhibited a notable trajectory in the financial market as of October 04. Currently, the currency pair is trading around the 1.0501 mark, reflecting the intricate interplay of global financial factors and currency dynamics. From a technical standpoint, several pivotal price points have emerged. The pivot point for the pair is identified at 1.0501. On the bullish side of the spectrum, immediate resistance looms at 1.0551, with subsequent resistances identified at 1.05912 and 1.06601. Conversely, for potential downward shifts, immediate support is situated at 1.04505, succeeded by supports at 1.04015 and 1.03262.

Diving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the EUR/USD stands at 34. An RSI below 50 suggests a bearish sentiment, and with the current value being even closer to 30, it is inching towards the oversold territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is marked at 1.055. With the current price of the pair being below this level, it indicates a short-term bearish trend. The 50 EMA is also offering resistance at this mark, further solidifying the bearish perspective.

From a chart pattern perspective, the observed downward channel suggests a selling trend for the pair. This sentiment is echoed by the 50-day EMA, which also advocates for a selling trend, further establishing the resistance around the 1.055 mark.

In terms of the broader trend, the prevailing sentiment for the EUR/USD pair appears to be bearish. Over the short term, market participants might look to adopt a strategy of selling below 1.055 and considering buy positions above this level. As always, it's crucial for traders and investors to stay updated with any fundamental news that might influence market dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly.

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Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has exhibited a notable trajectory in the financial market as of October 04. Currently, the currency pair is trading around the 1.0501 mark, reflecting the intricate interplay of global financial factors and currency dynamics. From a technical standpoint, several pivotal price points have emerged. The pivot point for the pair is identified at 1.0501. On the bullish side of the spectrum, immediate resistance looms at 1.0551, with subsequent resistances identified at 1.05912 and 1.06601. Conversely, for potential downward shifts, immediate support is situated at 1.04505, succeeded by supports at 1.04015 and 1.03262.

Diving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the EUR/USD stands at 34. An RSI below 50 suggests a bearish sentiment, and with the current value being even closer to 30, it is inching towards the oversold territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is marked at 1.055. With the current price of the pair being below this level, it indicates a short-term bearish trend. The 50 EMA is also offering resistance at this mark, further solidifying the bearish perspective.

From a chart pattern perspective, the observed downward channel suggests a selling trend for the pair. This sentiment is echoed by the 50-day EMA, which also advocates for a selling trend, further establishing the resistance around the 1.055 mark.

In terms of the broader trend, the prevailing sentiment for the EUR/USD pair appears to be bearish. Over the short term, market participants might look to adopt a strategy of selling below 1.055 and considering buy positions above this level. As always, it's crucial for traders and investors to stay updated with any fundamental news that might influence market dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.05180

Take Profit – 1.04032

Stop Loss – 1.06021

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1148/ -$841

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$114/ -$84

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session, the EUR/USD pair struggled to make significant gains and mostly hovered around the mid-1.0500s. However, the reason behind this was the growing belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might tighten its policies further, causing US Treasury bond yields to rise.

This, in turn, strengthened the US Dollar (USD) and weighed on the EUR/USD pair. Moreover, the possibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) postponing any additional interest rate hikes also weighed on the pair. On the flip side, a general risk-on sentiment in the market limited the demand for the safe-haven US Dollar, providing some support to the EUR/USD pair.

Market Sentiment Boosts EUR/USD, but ECB Rate Cut Speculations Linger

The global market sentiment is rising thanks to better-than-expected Chinese PMI data and the US government passing a temporary funding bill. This positive mood is keeping the US Dollar (USD) from surging and is giving some support to the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, many people think the European Central Bank (ECB) might cut interest rates in the future, keeping the Euro lower.

Recent data suggests that high inflation in the Eurozone might be slowing down, and there's even speculation about the Eurozone economy shrinking in the coming months. This has led to doubts about further ECB rate hikes, especially after the latest consumer inflation figures dropped from 5.3% to 4.5% in September.

US Dollar Strength Amid Fed's Tightening and Upcoming Data

The broad-based US dollar is generally strong because most believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep tightening its policies. This makes the EUR/USD pair struggle to go up. The US PCE Price Index, a measure of inflation, increased as expected, showing a 3.5% rise in the past year through August.

However, the Core PCE Price Index, which the Fed prefers, eased slightly to 3.9% in August. Despite this, higher consumer spending and rising gas prices indicate that inflation will remain a concern. This means the Fed will likely stick to its tough stance, keeping interest rates high, which supports the US dollar and higher bond yields.

Looking ahead, traders seem cautious to place any strong bids as they are waiting for crucial US economic data coming at the start of the month. The week starts with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. These events will affect the US dollar's value and provide direction for the EUR/USD pair later in the North American session.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD forex pair displays intriguing movements around the 1.0600 level, hinting at a mild bearish tilt. Yet, the stochastic indicator's positive momentum suggests possible bullish activity, targeting the 1.0675 region. However, any decline below 1.0550 could curb bullish prospects. Today's trading might range between 1.0520 support and 1.0660 resistance.

Technically, the 4-hour chart's pivot point is 1.0572, with resistances at 1.0658, 1.0739, and 1.0907; supports lie at 1.0488, 1.0405, and 1.0238. The RSI, at 45, shows neutrality leaning bearish.

The 50-Day EMA stands around 1.06082, potentially indicating the market's short-term trend. A notable downward trendline presents resistance at 1.0600; breaching this could change momentum. In summary, EUR/USD's short-term trajectory hinges on the 1.0600 mark, with a potential move towards the 1.0658 resistance if bullish momentum continues.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD forex pair has been showing interesting movements lately. On close inspection around the 1.0600 level, we observe a mild bearish inclination. This, however, doesn't overshadow the optimism brought about by the stochastic indicator's positive momentum. This momentum suggests there is potential for a bullish trend throughout the day, particularly targeting the 1.0675 region.

But every coin has two sides. While the future seems to hint at a bullish dominance, particularly if the pair successfully surpasses the 1.0600 mark, there are also challenges ahead. If the pair were to dip below 1.0550, this would likely spell an end to any bullish hopes, sending the pair down a more bearish path. For today, traders might expect the currency pair to oscillate between the 1.0520 support and 1.0660 resistance.

Diving deeper into the technical side of things, the pivot point stands at 1.0572 on a 4-hour chart. On the higher side, we have immediate resistances poised at 1.0658, followed by 1.0739 and then at 1.0907. On the flip side, supports are situated at 1.0488, trailing down to 1.0405 and further to 1.0238.

From an indicator's standpoint, the RSI, currently at 45, offers a neutral yet slightly bearish sentiment. It’s teetering in the middle, neither signaling an overbought nor an oversold condition. Another critical metric to monitor is the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average, which currently hovers around 1.06082. This figure could act as a litmus test for the market’s short-term direction.

Furthermore, the charts illustrate a downward trendline. This trendline exerts resistance, notably at the crucial 1.0600 juncture. The importance of this pattern cannot be stressed enough; a break here could catalyze a significant shift in momentum.

Conclusively, the fate of the EUR/USD in the short term appears to be hinged on the 1.0600 threshold. The sentiment is bearish beneath this level and bullish above it. Given the present technical indicators, it wouldn't be a stretch to anticipate the currency pair approaching the 1.0658 resistance soon, provided the bullish momentum sustains.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.05720

Take Profit – 1.04878

Stop Loss – 1.06243

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$842/ -$523

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$84/ -$52

Daily Price Outlook

During the European session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair failed to stop its losing streak and experienced a significant decline, dropping to around 1.0550, the lowest point since March 16. However, this marked a clear bearish phase for the pair. However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the bullish US dollar, which was backed by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Consequently, the USD gained ground against major currencies, including the Euro. On the flip side, the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a dovish approach regarding rate hikes, which weighed down the Euro. This dovish stance contributed to the potential for further losses for the EUR/USD pair.

Factors Driving the Strength of the US Dollar and its Impact on EUR/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction and is currently near a 10-month high. However, this surge is primarily driven by the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for the future. The Federal Reserve recently hinted at the possibility of raising interest rates again within this year due to concerns about persistent inflation. Another factor that has been boosting the US dollar is the tendency of investors to seek safety in it during uncertain times. This behavior further adds downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Factors Influencing EUR/USD Pair and Key Events to Monitor

Apart from this, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently hinted at maintaining low interest rates, which was seen as another key factor that has been weighing on the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, the ECB revised down its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in 2024 and 2025, indicating a slowdown in potential rate hikes. Moreover, there's also a growing discussion about a contraction in the economy later in the year, suggesting that the ECB's tightening policy might have reached its peak. All these factors has been pushing the EUR/USD pair down.

Looking ahead, traders are watching the German Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders, German inflation data, and final US economic growth numbers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and US price index at week's end will be key events to watch.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair demonstrates an enhanced bearish tendency, progressively nearing our anticipated target of 1.0515. We project the persistence of this negative trajectory, aiming for further declines towards the 1.0440 zone.

Within the context of the bearish channel depicted on the chart, and backed by the downward pressure from the EMA50, the bearish outlook remains pertinent for the foreseeable future.

It's crucial to underscore that maintaining levels below 1.0635 is a primary prerequisite to realize these targets. Today's projected trading band spans from a support at 1.0470 to a resistance at 1.0620, with the prevailing sentiment being bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair demonstrates an enhanced bearish tendency, progressively nearing our anticipated target of 1.0515. We project the persistence of this negative trajectory, aiming for further declines towards the 1.0440 zone.

Within the context of the bearish channel depicted on the chart, and backed by the downward pressure from the EMA50, the bearish outlook remains pertinent for the foreseeable future.

It's crucial to underscore that maintaining levels below 1.0635 is a primary prerequisite to realize these targets. Today's projected trading band spans from a support at 1.0470 to a resistance at 1.0620, with the prevailing sentiment being bearish.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.05736

Take Profit – 1.05182

Stop Loss – 1.06115

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$554/ -$379

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$55/ -$37

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session, the EUR/USD pair struggled to gain momentum and remained stuck in a narrow trading range around the mid-1.0600s. However, the reason for its decline can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, which is boosting the US Dollar and limiting the Euro's gains. Besides this, the ongoing concerns about a looming recession and the European Central Bank's dovish approach to interest rate hikes were adding downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Strong US Dollar and Its Impact on EUR/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar maintained its upward ground and hitting a six-month high due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. it is worth noting that the Fed recently confirmed that it plans to keep interest rates high for an extended period and expects to raise rates again by the end of the year to tackle persistent inflation. Furthermore, the Fed's projection of two rate cuts in 2024, down from the previous estimate of four, supports higher US Treasury bond yields. Notably, the two-year US government bond yield is at its highest level since 2006, and the 10-year Treasury yield is near a 16-year peak.

These factors, along with concerns about a property market crisis in China, bolster the safe-haven US Dollar and contribute to the EUR/USD pair losses.

ECB's Cautious Stance and Its Impact on EUR/USD Pair

Another factor that has been impacting the EUR/USD pair is the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious stance on interest rates, which is pulling down the shared currency. Last Thursday, the ECB made a dovish rate decision, which has put pressure on the Euro and prevented the pair from recovering from a multi-month low. Meanwhile, ECB lowered its forecasts for inflation (CPI) and economic growth (GDP) in 2024 and 2025.

Moreover, the Eurozone's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Friday showed that the manufacturing sector is still struggling, which raises concerns about the possibility of an economic downturn in the second half of the year. Therefore, these developments strengthen the belief that further interest rate hikes are unlikely, which weighed on EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis 

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the pivotal support level of 1.0635. We anticipate a breach of this level to validate the continuation of its bearish trajectory, with an ensuing target at 1.0515.

The Stochastic oscillator is generating bearish indications, enhancing the likelihood of the anticipated decline. This is further reinforced by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.

However, a surge beyond 1.0680 would negate this bearish perspective and might prompt the pair to undertake recovery efforts, aiming for the 1.0785 region before any subsequent downturn. Today's projected trading range is delineated between the support at 1.0560 and the resistance at 1.0700. (edited)

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is currently hovering around the pivotal support level of 1.0635. We anticipate a breach of this level to validate the continuation of its bearish trajectory, with an ensuing target at 1.0515.

The Stochastic oscillator is generating bearish indications, enhancing the likelihood of the anticipated decline. This is further reinforced by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.

However, a surge beyond 1.0680 would negate this bearish perspective and might prompt the pair to undertake recovery efforts, aiming for the 1.0785 region before any subsequent downturn. Today's projected trading range is delineated between the support at 1.0560 and the resistance at 1.0700. (edited)

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.06711

Take Profit – 1.05694

Stop Loss – 1.07205

Risk to Reward – 1: 4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$951/ -$56

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$101/ -$56

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to climb, reaching approximately 1.0690. Traders are being cautious and not taking strong positions, likely because they're waiting for the highly anticipated FOMC policy meeting. Moreover, the strength of the US dollar is seen as a key factor preventing the EUR/USD pair from making further gains

Right now, people in the market are being extra careful and attentive because they're eagerly awaiting the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting. They're really keeping an eye out for any hints or information that might come out of it. This cautious attitude and the current strength of the dollar are both playing a big role in how this currency pair is moving.

Fed's Upcoming Decision and Its Impact on EUR/USD

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its decision during the US session. Most people expect them to keep interest rates where they are, between 5.25% and 5.5%. However, investors are anticipating the Fed's firm stance on inflation and the possibility of a 0.25% rate hike later this year.

Recent economic data shows that the US economy is still strong, giving the Fed reason to keep interest rates higher for longer. Hence, the Federal Reserve's statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks in the press conference will be closely monitored. The news may strengthen the USD, potentially causing the EUR/USD pair to fall as investors favor the stronger US economy.

ECB's Rate Hike Pause Could Weaken EUR/USD

Besides this, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently raised interest rates for the 10th consecutive time, pushing them up by 0.25% to a record 4%. Yet, they dropped hints that this long series of rate hikes might be coming to an end. They also lowered their predictions for inflation and economic growth in 2024 and 2025, suggesting that more rate hikes might be on hold.

On top of that, the most recent data indicates that inflation has eased compared to July. This could potentially lessen the Euro's strength against the US Dollar (EUR/USD). So, the European Central Bank (ECB) is taking a step back from continuously raising rates, at least for the time being. This news implies that the EUR/USD currency pair might lose some strength because the ECB seems to be holding off on increasing interest rates due to the lowered inflation and growth forecasts.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair has engaged with the upper boundary of its bearish channel and now exhibits consolidation beneath it. Notably, the EMA50 reinforces the integrity of this resistance, hinting at a continuation of the projected bearish trajectory in the foreseeable future. This movement sets its sights on the 1.0635 level, with further descent to 1.0515 should the former be breached.

The current upbeat momentum of the Stochastic oscillator may induce transient lateral movements before a reversion to a downward trend. It's imperative to acknowledge that a surpass of the 1.0705 mark would negate the anticipated decline, potentially propelling the price towards intraday highs around 1.0785 prior to any subsequent bearish endeavors. For today, the trading bracket is estimated to stretch from a foundational support at 1.0590 to a resistance cap at 1.0740.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has engaged with the upper boundary of its bearish channel and now exhibits consolidation beneath it. Notably, the EMA50 reinforces the integrity of this resistance, hinting at a continuation of the projected bearish trajectory in the foreseeable future. This movement sets its sights on the 1.0635 level, with further descent to 1.0515 should the former be breached.

The current upbeat momentum of the Stochastic oscillator may induce transient lateral movements before a reversion to a downward trend. It's imperative to acknowledge that a surpass of the 1.0705 mark would negate the anticipated decline, potentially propelling the price towards intraday highs around 1.0785 prior to any subsequent bearish endeavors. For today, the trading bracket is estimated to stretch from a foundational support at 1.0590 to a resistance cap at 1.0740.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.06766

Take Profit – 1.07349

Stop Loss – 1.06511

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$583/ -$255

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$58/ -$25