GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold prices hold steady at $2,721.90, with bullish sentiment supported by buying interest near the key $2,713.94 pivot level.
- RSI at 69.44 and 50 EMA at $2,678.89 show ongoing momentum, providing a foundation for continued upward movement.
- A break above $2,732.00 could drive gold prices toward $2,740, while a fall below $2,713 risks further pullback.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,721.90, showing an intraday increase of 0.06%. The market sentiment remains bullish as prices hold above critical support levels.
Gold continues to extend its bullish momentum, with prices maintaining an upward channel formation. On the 2-hour chart, XAU/USD has bounced off its immediate support level at $2,713.94, driven by buying interest around this key pivot zone. The precious metal is steadily climbing towards the next resistance levels, suggesting a possible rally if prices break through the critical barrier of $2,732.08.
Technical indicators also reinforce this positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at 69.44, suggesting a moderately overbought condition but still leaving room for potential gains. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,678.89, offering solid support to the ongoing trend.
Should gold hold above $2,714.00, the immediate upside target lies at $2,732.00. A breakout above this resistance would open the door for a further advance towards the $2,740 level. However, failure to maintain the $2,713 support could result in a pullback, with next support levels at $2,703.00 and $2,693.00.
Conclusion: The overall outlook for gold remains bullish as long as prices stay above $2,714. Entry points for traders may include buying above $2,714 with a take-profit target of $2,732 and a stop-loss at $2,703. The RSI and 50 EMA suggest positive momentum, making the current price zone an attractive entry for upward positions.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2714
Take Profit – 2732
Stop Loss – 2703
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1800/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$180/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 21, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) started this week on a bullish trend and maintain their intraday gains during the early European session, trading around the all-time high of $2,731. However, the easing of monetary policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have created a bullish environment for the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, uncertainty in US politics has contributed to the recent upward momentum over the past couple of weeks.
At the same time, expectations of modest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have supported US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, boosted the US Dollar. The USD Index (DXY) is now nearing its highest level since early August. Hence, this strength in the Dollar, along with slightly overbought technical conditions, could limit further gains in Gold in the near term.
US Dollar Strength and Geopolitical Risks Shape Gold Price Trends
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has gained bullish traction as expectations of modest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) help keep US Treasury yields higher. However, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, is inching closer to its highest level since August. Investors have ruled out the possibility of a large interest rate cut by the Fed in November, as the US economy continues to show resilience in recent macroeconomic data.
Fed officials, like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have indicated that they're not in a hurry to cut rates, with expectations that rates will eventually fall to around 3-3.5% by the end of next year. In contrast, weak inflation data from the UK has fueled expectations of more aggressive easing from the Bank of England. Despite higher US bond yields, the positive trend in Gold prices remains intact, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risks and broader market uncertainties.
Therefore, the strengthening US dollar and higher Treasury yields may limit further gains in Gold prices. However, ongoing geopolitical risks and market uncertainties continue to drive safe-haven demand, keeping the precious metal's upward trend intact despite these headwinds from the Dollar.
Geopolitical Tensions and Political Uncertainty Fuel Gold Prices to New Highs
On the other hand, the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to boost Gold prices. Despite the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the conflict shows no signs of easing, as Israel prepares to respond to Iran’s October strike. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, remains determined to continue the war despite attacks by Hezbollah.
However, the situation has escalated with Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon and intensified attacks in Gaza, raising fears of a larger regional conflict. This has heightened safe-haven demand for Gold, helping it maintain its upward momentum and reach a new all-time high during the Asian session on Monday.
In addition to geopolitical risks, political uncertainty in the US also supports Gold's rise. Recent polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, adding to market uncertainty and boosting demand for Gold. Furthermore, investors welcomed two new funding schemes launched by the People's Bank of China on Friday, aimed at supporting capital market development.
These combined factors have helped Gold reach a fresh all-time high during the Asian session on Monday, continuing its strong upward trend.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,721.90, showing an intraday increase of 0.06%. The market sentiment remains bullish as prices hold above critical support levels.
Gold continues to extend its bullish momentum, with prices maintaining an upward channel formation. On the 2-hour chart, XAU/USD has bounced off its immediate support level at $2,713.94, driven by buying interest around this key pivot zone. The precious metal is steadily climbing towards the next resistance levels, suggesting a possible rally if prices break through the critical barrier of $2,732.08.
Technical indicators also reinforce this positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering at 69.44, suggesting a moderately overbought condition but still leaving room for potential gains. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,678.89, offering solid support to the ongoing trend.
Should gold hold above $2,714.00, the immediate upside target lies at $2,732.00. A breakout above this resistance would open the door for a further advance towards the $2,740 level. However, failure to maintain the $2,713 support could result in a pullback, with next support levels at $2,703.00 and $2,693.00.
Conclusion: The overall outlook for gold remains bullish as long as prices stay above $2,714. Entry points for traders may include buying above $2,714 with a take-profit target of $2,732 and a stop-loss at $2,703. The RSI and 50 EMA suggest positive momentum, making the current price zone an attractive entry for upward positions.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold faces immediate resistance at $2,714.04, with further targets at $2,723.35 and $2,733.55.
- The 50-day EMA at $2,671 reinforces bullish momentum, providing strong support.
- RSI at 66 signals near-overbought conditions, but buying opportunities remain above $2,696.
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward momentum, rising by 0.39% to trade at $2,704.52. Currently, the pivot point stands at $2,720, a key level to watch as it could determine whether gold pushes further into resistance zones. Immediate resistance is at $2,714.04, followed by stronger barriers at $2,723.35 and $2,733.55. A successful breach of these levels would set the stage for a continuation of the bullish trend.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $2,671, provides solid support, underpinning the broader uptrend. On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,684.56, with further backing at $2,673.03 and $2,660.17. Should gold prices fall below these levels, a deeper retracement could materialize.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, suggesting the metal is nearing overbought conditions, but still has some room to rally before facing significant selling pressure. Traders eyeing this level may see opportunities to buy on dips, particularly if prices remain above the $2,696 mark. A break below $2,685, however, could trigger a more bearish sentiment.
Conclusion:
The technical outlook suggests buying above $2,696, targeting the $2,720 pivot with a stop loss set at $2,685. Gold remains bullish, supported by strong technical indicators, but traders should be mindful of resistance levels and overbought signals from the RSI.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2696
Take Profit – 2720
Stop Loss – 2685
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2400/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$240/ -$1100
GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) soared to a new record high near the 2,710 level on Friday, continuing an impressive bullish bias. This surge reflects growing expectations that major central banks might cut interest rates soon, a move that often boosts demand for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election are making gold more attractive as a safe haven for investors. With all these factors at play, it’s no surprise that many are turning to gold in these turbulent times.
In addition to this, the recent decline of the US Dollar from its highest levels since early August has been a boost for gold prices. On top of that, the positive US macroeconomic data released on Thursday has reinforced the idea that the Federal Reserve might opt for modest interest rate cuts. This situation could help stabilize the dollar's downward trend while also making gold a more appealing option for investors looking for a safe place to park their money.
Fed Rate Cuts and Positive Economic Data Drive Gold Demand Amid Market Uncertainty
On the US front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower interest rates again after a significant cut in September. At the same time, weak inflation data from the UK has increased expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates more aggressively. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered rates for the third time this year, marking the first back-to-back cuts in 13 years due to worsening economic conditions. These moves by central banks, along with a slight drop in the US Dollar, have supported rising gold prices, as lower interest rates tend to make gold more attractive.
In addition to central bank actions, positive US economic data is also influencing the market. The US Census Bureau reported that retail sales rose by 0.4% in September, beating expectations of 0.3%, and initial jobless claims dropped to 241,000, better than the forecasted 260,000. Furthermore, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business conditions index increased significantly in October, reaching 10.3.
As traders focus on upcoming US housing data and a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the combination of expected interest rate cuts and positive economic news is likely to keep boosting demand for gold, as investors turn to it for stability during uncertain times.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Fuels Gold's Rise Amid Middle East Tensions and US Election Concerns
On the geopolitical front, escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election are also driving up gold prices. The tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has added to the unpredictability, prompting investors to seek the safety of gold. As a result, this increased demand has pushed gold prices to a new all-time high.
The situation in the Middle East intensified after the Israeli military confirmed the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, following a long pursuit. Additionally, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has escalated its conflict with Israel, further heightening regional instability. Hence, these geopolitical tensions have had a stronger impact on market sentiment, with investors focusing more on safe-haven assets like gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward momentum, rising by 0.39% to trade at $2,704.52. Currently, the pivot point stands at $2,720, a key level to watch as it could determine whether gold pushes further into resistance zones. Immediate resistance is at $2,714.04, followed by stronger barriers at $2,723.35 and $2,733.55. A successful breach of these levels would set the stage for a continuation of the bullish trend.
The 50-day EMA, currently at $2,671, provides solid support, underpinning the broader uptrend. On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,684.56, with further backing at $2,673.03 and $2,660.17. Should gold prices fall below these levels, a deeper retracement could materialize.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, suggesting the metal is nearing overbought conditions, but still has some room to rally before facing significant selling pressure. Traders eyeing this level may see opportunities to buy on dips, particularly if prices remain above the $2,696 mark. A break below $2,685, however, could trigger a more bearish sentiment.
Conclusion:
The technical outlook suggests buying above $2,696, targeting the $2,720 pivot with a stop loss set at $2,685. Gold remains bullish, supported by strong technical indicators, but traders should be mindful of resistance levels and overbought signals from the RSI.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold faces immediate resistance at $2,674.26 with a potential target of $2,693.
- The 50-day EMA at $2,659.66 provides crucial support for the bullish trend.
- RSI at 63 shows room for further gains without overbought concerns.
Gold (XAU/USD) is showing bullish momentum, trading at $2,682.10, up 0.36% on the day. The 4-hour chart reveals that the price is approaching a critical resistance at $2,674.26, which, if broken, could trigger further gains toward the next resistance levels at $2,685.25 and $2,694.23.
However, a failure to break this level may see gold retreat to immediate support at $2,655.79, with further support lying at $2,646.42 and $2,637.84.
From a technical perspective, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,659.66 is providing solid support, suggesting a positive outlook for gold as long as the price remains above this level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 63, indicating a bullish trend without reaching overbought territory, leaving room for further upward movement.
The pivot point at $2,693.00 serves as a key indicator, with potential gains if prices surpass this level. Traders may look to enter positions above $2,674, aiming for a take-profit target around $2,693.
However, caution is advised if the price falls below $2,665, where a stop-loss could help mitigate risks in a downward scenario.
Overall, gold remains bullish as long as the price holds above the $2,674 mark, supported by strong technical indicators. A break above immediate resistance could see gold testing new highs, while a drop below key support may signal a short-term pullback.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2674
Take Profit – 2693
Stop Loss – 2665
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1900/ -$900
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$190/ -$90
GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained a bullish trend, climbing for the third consecutive day and reaching a fresh all-time high of 2,685 ahead of the European session on Thursday. This bullish momentum is supported by weak inflation data from Europe and the UK, which have heightened expectations for more aggressive monetary easing by both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Apart from this, the ongoing speculation of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November has bolstered demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Moreover, the escalating conflicts in the Middle East have heightened the appeal of gold as a safe haven. Nevertheless, traders have moderated their expectations for more aggressive easing by the Fed, which has led to higher US Treasury bond yields. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) near its highest level since early August, limiting the upside for gold.
Weak Inflation and Central Bank Actions Heighten Gold Demand
As we mentioned, weak inflation data from Europe and the UK has increased expectations for more aggressive policy easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). This aligns with predictions of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, supporting demand for gold, a non-yielding asset.
Notably, the ECB is expected to announce its third interest rate cut of the year this Thursday, while falling UK inflation strengthens the case for a BoE rate cut next month. Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows over a 90% probability of a 25 bps rate cut from the Fed, which has lowered US bond yields to a one-week low.
As a result, the US Dollar has continued its upward trend, reaching its highest level since early August, but this hasn’t deterred gold buyers. Moving ahead, traders will watch key US economic data, including Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. In the meantime, the ECB’s monetary policy decision may also increase market volatility and provide opportunities for traders, especially in the safe-haven gold market.
Geopolitical Tensions and Central Bank Purchases Drive Demand for Gold
Apart from this, recent comments from officials at the London Bullion Market Association's annual conference indicate that central banks are continuing to purchase gold. They are doing this to diversify their reserves for both financial stability and strategic reasons. This trend highlights gold's ongoing importance as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties.
In southern Lebanon, the United Nations (UN) reported that Israeli forces have fired at its peacekeeping position, forcibly entered a base, and halted critical logistical movements. This situation has resulted in injuries to more than a dozen UN troops. The escalating tensions in this region raise concerns about stability and security in the area.
Furthermore, a source familiar with the situation revealed that Israel has prepared a plan to respond to Iran’s attack on October 1. This development heightens the risk of further geopolitical tensions and could lead to a full-scale war in the Middle East.
In another part of the world, China’s housing minister announced plans to add 1 million village urbanization projects and implement monetization measures for these initiatives, reflecting the government's commitment to urban development.
Therefore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, coupled with central banks' increased gold purchases for diversification, are likely to boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, driving prices higher amid market uncertainties and global instability.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is showing bullish momentum, trading at $2,682.10, up 0.36% on the day. The 4-hour chart reveals that the price is approaching a critical resistance at $2,674.26, which, if broken, could trigger further gains toward the next resistance levels at $2,685.25 and $2,694.23. However, a failure to break this level may see gold retreat to immediate support at $2,655.79, with further support lying at $2,646.42 and $2,637.84.
From a technical perspective, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,659.66 is providing solid support, suggesting a positive outlook for gold as long as the price remains above this level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 63, indicating a bullish trend without reaching overbought territory, leaving room for further upward movement.
The pivot point at $2,693.00 serves as a key indicator, with potential gains if prices surpass this level. Traders may look to enter positions above $2,674, aiming for a take-profit target around $2,693. However, caution is advised if the price falls below $2,665, where a stop-loss could help mitigate risks in a downward scenario.
Overall, gold remains bullish as long as the price holds above the $2,674 mark, supported by strong technical indicators. A break above immediate resistance could see gold testing new highs, while a drop below key support may signal a short-term pullback.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold faces immediate resistance at $2,674, with the next target at $2,685.
- RSI at 64 suggests gold is nearing overbought conditions, signaling potential for a pullback.
- The 50-EMA at $2,647 acts as a strong support level, maintaining the bullish trend.
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,670.6, up 0.51%, reflecting a continuation of its bullish momentum. On the 4-hour chart, prices are hovering near key resistance at $2,674, just below the pivot point of $2,682.
A break above this level could lead to further gains, with next resistance levels at $2,685 and $2,694. However, if gold fails to maintain momentum, immediate support is found at $2,656, with further downside potential toward $2,646 and $2,638.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 64, indicating that while bullish momentum remains intact, gold is approaching overbought territory. This suggests some caution for traders, as a pullback may be on the horizon.
The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $2,647, providing dynamic support. As long as prices remain above this level, the outlook remains positive.
Traders looking to capitalize on this trend might consider entering buy positions above $2,665, with a target of $2,682. A stop loss at $2,655 would protect against downside risks, particularly if gold dips below key support levels.
In conclusion, gold’s current trajectory remains bullish, but traders should watch key levels closely. A break above $2,674 could signal further gains, while a move below $2,656 might indicate a broader correction.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2665
Take Profit – 2682
Stop Loss – 2655
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 16, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued their upward momentum, reaching around $2,675, marking a three-week high during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. This rise is largely driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and disappointment over the lack of details surrounding China’s fiscal stimulus, which has dampened investors’ enthusiasm for riskier assets. Moreover, the current risk-averse sentiment has contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields, further supporting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
However, there are some headwinds for gold as well including stronger expectations for a less aggressive policy shift from the Federal Reserve, along with predictions for a standard 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November, which are likely to boost U.S. bond yields. This environment has also lifted the U.S. dollar to its highest level in over two months, which may deter bullish traders from making new investments in gold.
Impact of U.S. Dollar Strength and Fed Policy on Gold Prices
On the U.S. front, the broad-based U.S. dollar has reached its highest level in over two months, driven by expectations for a less aggressive approach to policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Many investors anticipate a standard 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the upcoming November meeting, which has contributed to higher U.S. bond yields. However, this stronger dollar could limit new investments in gold, which is seen as a safe-haven asset.
On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury bond yields fell for the second consecutive day due to weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and a decrease in inflation risks from declining oil prices. The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to -11.9 in October, indicating deteriorating economic conditions, the lowest reading since May.
As fears of supply disruptions ease and the outlook for demand weakens, crude oil prices fell to a two-week low, reducing inflationary pressures and making it easier for the Fed to consider further interest rate cuts.
Despite this, the market is pricing in a greater chance of smaller interest rate cuts at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November. This is expected to support the U.S. dollar and limit any significant gains for gold (XAU/USD).
Additionally, comments from Fed officials like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggest that the central bank is making progress in controlling inflation, with one or two more rate cuts possible this year, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic notes that the economy is performing well, with inflation trending back towards the 2% target.
Therefore the strengthening U.S. dollar and higher bond yields, alongside expectations of smaller interest rate cuts, may limit gold's gains. While easing inflation risks provide some support, overall sentiment could lead to reduced bullish activity in gold markets.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,670.6, up 0.51%, reflecting a continuation of its bullish momentum. On the 4-hour chart, prices are hovering near key resistance at $2,674, just below the pivot point of $2,682.
A break above this level could lead to further gains, with next resistance levels at $2,685 and $2,694. However, if gold fails to maintain momentum, immediate support is found at $2,656, with further downside potential toward $2,646 and $2,638.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 64, indicating that while bullish momentum remains intact, gold is approaching overbought territory. This suggests some caution for traders, as a pullback may be on the horizon.
The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $2,647, providing dynamic support. As long as prices remain above this level, the outlook remains positive.
Traders looking to capitalize on this trend might consider entering buy positions above $2,665, with a target of $2,682. A stop loss at $2,655 would protect against downside risks, particularly if gold dips below key support levels.
In conclusion, gold’s current trajectory remains bullish, but traders should watch key levels closely. A break above $2,674 could signal further gains, while a move below $2,656 might indicate a broader correction.
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GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Gold faces key resistance at $2,659, with potential upside to $2,674 if bullish momentum strengthens above $2,665.
- Immediate support at $2,635 (50 EMA); a break below this level could lead to further declines toward $2,622.
- RSI at 48 suggests neutral momentum, with a slight bearish tilt, indicating potential for increased selling pressure.
Gold is currently trading at $2,644.41, down 0.16% in the last session, as it hovers near key technical levels. The precious metal has struggled to break above the critical resistance level of $2,659, indicating that bullish momentum may be fading. Immediate resistance stands at $2,665, and a breakout above this level could signal a push toward higher targets at $2,674 and $2,685, which align with Fibonacci retracement levels. However, failure to overcome resistance may open the door for further downside.
On the support side, gold finds immediate support at $2,635, which is also the level of the 50-day EMA, providing a key area of defense for bulls. A breach below this could see prices testing $2,622, with the next critical support at $2,611. The RSI is currently at 48, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bearish tilt, suggesting that the market could be vulnerable to further selling pressure if key support levels fail to hold.
In conclusion, the immediate strategy is to buy above $2,637, with a target of $2,659 and a stop-loss at $2,626. Traders should monitor the $2,665 resistance carefully, as a break above could shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2637
Take Profit – 2659
Stop Loss – 2626
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2200/ -$1100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$220/ -$110
GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 15, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have managed to halt their overnight losses, finding solid support around the $2,655 level during the early European session on Tuesday. This stability comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East, which continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
However, the US dollar remains strong, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a less aggressive approach to policy easing. This strength in the dollar could limit any potential gains for gold. Additionally, disappointment over China’s fiscal stimulus measures has dampened investor confidence, which may also contribute to capping XAU/USD’s upward momentum.
US Dollar Strength Limits Gold’s Gains Amid Geopolitical Tensions
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar surged to its highest level since August 8, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease its policy less aggressively. Traders are now betting on a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that the current monetary policy is still restrictive, and modest interest rate cuts may be appropriate as the job market remains strong.
Similarly, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the economy is on solid ground and may not be slowing down as much as expected, suggesting that the Fed should be cautious with further rate cuts.
This bullish bias in the US Dollar could limit gains in gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically makes gold more expensive for foreign investors. However, gold remains supported by concerns over geopolitical tensions and potential conflicts in the Middle East, which are boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
Traders will now turn their attention to the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index and more comments from Fed officials, both of which could provide short-term trading opportunities for XAU/USD later in the North American session.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold is currently trading at $2,644.41, down 0.16% in the last session, as it hovers near key technical levels. The precious metal has struggled to break above the critical resistance level of $2,659, indicating that bullish momentum may be fading. Immediate resistance stands at $2,665, and a breakout above this level could signal a push toward higher targets at $2,674 and $2,685, which align with Fibonacci retracement levels. However, failure to overcome resistance may open the door for further downside.
On the support side, gold finds immediate support at $2,635, which is also the level of the 50-day EMA, providing a key area of defense for bulls. A breach below this could see prices testing $2,622, with the next critical support at $2,611. The RSI is currently at 48, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bearish tilt, suggesting that the market could be vulnerable to further selling pressure if key support levels fail to hold.
In conclusion, the immediate strategy is to buy above $2,637, with a target of $2,659 and a stop-loss at $2,626. Traders should monitor the $2,665 resistance carefully, as a break above could shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
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