Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair has continued its bearish trend, trading around the 0.6734 level and hitting an intra-day low of 0.6715. This downward movement can be attributed to risk-off market sentiment, which tends to undermine riskier assets like the Australian dollar (AUD), contributing to the pair's losses. Moreover, comments from the National Development and Reform Commission during a recent press conference have further pressured the AUD/USD.

However, the losses could be short-lived due to the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following its September Meeting Minutes. Meanwhile, the US dollar has slightly weakened despite strong jobs report for September has tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Hence, the bearish US dollar provides some support to the AUD/USD pair to limit its losses.

Looking ahead, investors are eager for insights from Fed officials later on Tuesday, as well as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. All eyes will then turn to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, set to be released on Thursday, which could significantly influence market direction.

Australian Dollar Under Pressure Amid Economic Concerns and RBA Caution

As we mentioned above, the Australian dollar is losing traction due to comments from the National Development and Reform Commission during a press conference. China's state planner indicated that the country's economy is facing a more complex internal and external environment, disappointing traders who were hoping for significant stimulus measures. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have created a risk-off sentiment in the market, putting further selling pressure on riskier assets like the AUD.

Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its September Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, revealing that board members discussed future scenarios for both lowering and raising interest rates. The Minutes stated, “Policy will need to remain restrictive until Board members are confident inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.”

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that the central bank will take action only when inflation is no longer high and persistent. He noted that reducing inflation is a significant task and that they are not finished yet. This cautious approach suggests that the RBA is focused on maintaining stability amid current economic challenges.

Therefore, the news is likely to weaken the AUD/USD pair as risk-off sentiment and disappointing Chinese economic signals undermine the Australian dollar. The RBA's cautious stance on interest rates further contributes to bearish pressure on the AUD against the US dollar.

US Dollar Weakens Amid Strong Jobs Report and Cautious Fed Outlook

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar lost some of its gains on Tuesday. However, a strong jobs report for September has led to reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This report highlights a robust labor market, prompting investors to lower their bets on significant interest rate cuts. As a result, demand for gold, which is a non-yielding asset, has also been negatively affected. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is now an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in November.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials are shifting their focus from concerns about high inflation to the potential risks of rising unemployment. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari pointed out this shift, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that further interest rate cuts would depend on economic performance.

Traders are remaining cautious as they await important US inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, both of which are due this week. These reports could significantly influence gold prices and market sentiment.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.67354, down 0.51% for the day, following a consistent bearish trend. This decline has pushed the pair below its key pivot point at 0.67678, indicating potential for further downside movement in the near term.

The 4-hour chart suggests that the pair is struggling to regain upward momentum as it hovers around immediate support at 0.67149. Should the price break below this support, the next targets would be at 0.66845 and 0.66569.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 28, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory and may be due for a short-term corrective bounce. However, the bearish pressure remains strong as AUD/USD trades below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.68150, suggesting that any upward moves could be limited by this resistance level.

On the upside, a move above the immediate resistance at 0.68078 could signal a potential reversal, with subsequent targets at 0.68417 and 0.68884. However, the overall technical sentiment favors further bearishness, particularly if prices continue to stay below the 0.67678 pivot point.

Given the current technical setup, traders should consider selling below 0.67671 with a take profit target at 0.67144 and a stop loss at 0.68050. However, any break above 0.68078 could shift sentiment toward a potential short-term recovery.

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Daily Price Outlook

- Oversold Conditions: RSI is at 28, suggesting the possibility of a short-term bounce.

- Bearish Momentum: AUD/USD remains below its 50-day EMA at 0.68150, indicating a strong downtrend.

- Key Levels to Watch: A break below 0.67149 support could open the door to further declines toward 0.66845.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.67354, down 0.51% for the day, following a consistent bearish trend. This decline has pushed the pair below its key pivot point at 0.67678, indicating potential for further downside movement in the near term.

The 4-hour chart suggests that the pair is struggling to regain upward momentum as it hovers around immediate support at 0.67149. Should the price break below this support, the next targets would be at 0.66845 and 0.66569.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 28, indicating that the pair is in oversold territory and may be due for a short-term corrective bounce. However, the bearish pressure remains strong as AUD/USD trades below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.68150, suggesting that any upward moves could be limited by this resistance level.

On the upside, a move above the immediate resistance at 0.68078 could signal a potential reversal, with subsequent targets at 0.68417 and 0.68884. However, the overall technical sentiment favors further bearishness, particularly if prices continue to stay below the 0.67678 pivot point.

Given the current technical setup, traders should consider selling below 0.67671 with a take profit target at 0.67144 and a stop loss at 0.68050. However, any break above 0.68078 could shift sentiment toward a potential short-term recovery.

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.67671

Take Profit – 0.67144

Stop Loss – 0.68050

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$527/ -$379

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$52/ -$37

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold faces resistance at $2,656, with RSI at 46, indicating limited bullish momentum for now.

- Breaking below $2,631 support could trigger a deeper correction toward $2,624 and $2,617 levels.

- CPI report impact on gold likely to drive next major move, watch for key resistance and support levels.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,641.84, slightly down by 0.04% in the current session. After encountering strong resistance at $2,651—marked by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—the yellow metal has struggled to gain momentum. Price action remains within a tight range, as traders look for catalysts to determine the next direction.

On the 4-hour chart, gold is hovering just below the pivot point at $2,645, indicating a lack of clear directional bias. Immediate resistance lies at $2,656, followed by $2,663 and $2,670. Breaking above these levels could trigger a short-term bullish trend. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 46, there’s limited bullish momentum, and gold could remain under pressure in the short term.

Conversely, if prices break below immediate support at $2,631, gold could see further declines, with subsequent support levels at $2,624 and $2,617. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, with the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report likely to have a significant impact on gold prices.

Traders are advised to monitor key price levels closely. A move below $2,631 may signal a deeper correction, while a sustained break above $2,656 could pave the way for a potential recovery.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2650

Take Profit – 2633

Stop Loss – 2660

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$100

Daily Price Outlook

- GBP/USD remains under pressure, trading below key resistance at 1.3174 amid a bearish outlook.

- RSI at 39 signals continued downside risk; immediate support levels are 1.3071 and 1.3037.

- Break below 1.31350 may trigger further declines, targeting the 1.30700 level with limited upside potential.

The GBP/USD pair has shown marginal gains, trading at 1.31157, up 0.03% in the 4-hour timeframe. The pair remains in a consolidation phase as it struggles to sustain any significant momentum above the 1.3135 pivot point. Despite modest gains, the technical picture remains skewed towards the downside, with the British Pound under pressure amid a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over the UK’s economic outlook.

On the technical front, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3205 acts as a critical resistance level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading at 39, signaling bearish sentiment. Immediate resistance for the pair is seen at 1.3174, followed by 1.3216 and 1.3251. If the pair manages to break above these levels, it may signal a reversal in trend. However, with the RSI below 50, a continuation of the downtrend is more likely.

On the downside, immediate support sits at 1.3071, followed by stronger support levels at 1.3037 and 1.3003. A break below the 1.3071 mark could accelerate bearish momentum and open the door for further declines towards the 1.3000 psychological level.

Conclusion: With the RSI signaling a bearish bias and the pair trading below the 50 EMA, a sell-off below 1.31350 is recommended. The take-profit target is set at 1.30700, while a stop loss at 1.31750 limits risk.

GBP/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.31350

Take Profit – 1.30700

Stop Loss – 1.31750

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$650/ -$400

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$65/ -$40

Daily Price Outlook

- Bearish Momentum: EUR/USD is trading below its 50-day EMA, indicating bearish pressure.

- Oversold RSI: The RSI is at 29, suggesting potential for a short-term corrective rebound.

- Key Levels to Watch: Support at 1.0951; resistance at 1.0999, with pivot at 1.0983.

The EUR/USD pair is displaying subdued price action, lingering near the 1.0966 mark. The Euro's slight dip against the Dollar reflects an overall lack of momentum, with the pair trading below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1036.

Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 29, suggesting that the pair is in oversold territory and might be ripe for a corrective bounce. However, any upside movement faces immediate resistance at 1.0999, followed by stronger barriers at 1.1016 and 1.1036.

The technical outlook remains bearish as long as EUR/USD stays below the pivot point of 1.0983. A break below the immediate support level at 1.0951 could pave the way for further declines toward 1.0938 and potentially 1.0923.

This bearish sentiment is reinforced by the continued strength of the U.S. dollar amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay any further rate cuts due to strong U.S. economic data.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD is likely to remain under pressure unless it can break and sustain above the 1.0983 pivot point. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. inflation data closely, as it could significantly impact the pair’s direction.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.09833

Take Profit – 1.09518

Stop Loss – 1.09996

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$315/ -$163

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$31/ -$16

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trades below the 50-day EMA at 2,653.37, indicating weak bullish momentum and downside risk.

- Immediate support stands at 2,638.72; a break below could lead to declines toward 2,632.38.

- Stronger U.S. economic data and a robust dollar continue to exert downward pressure on gold.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade under pressure, declining 0.22% to hover around 2,643.68. The yellow metal’s current price action reflects indecisiveness as it remains within a tight consolidation range between 2,638.72 and 2,658.54. This neutral stance is a direct result of stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which has boosted the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, consequently putting downward pressure on gold.

Technical Overview: On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading slightly below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 2,653.37, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, suggesting moderate bearish sentiment but with room for a potential rebound.

If gold prices break below immediate support at 2,638.72, it could pave the way for further declines towards 2,632.38 and possibly 2,624.84. Conversely, holding above 2,643.68 could encourage a retest of the 2,652.40 pivot point, followed by resistance levels at 2,658.54 and 2,666.35.

Conclusion: Given the bearish undertone, selling below 2,649 seems prudent, with a take profit target set at 2,635 and a stop loss at 2,656. Traders should monitor price action around the key support level of 2,638.72, as a sustained move below this level could trigger a more substantial sell-off.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2649

Take Profit – 2635

Stop Loss – 2656

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$700

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$70

Daily Price Outlook

- Bearish Sentiment: EUR/USD is trading below its pivot point at $1.1039, indicating potential weakness.

- Key Support Levels: Immediate support at $1.1017; a break below this could push the pair toward $1.1002.

- Resistance Barriers: Overhead resistance stands at $1.1055, limiting bullish attempts.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.10275, a slight dip of 0.02%, as the euro struggles to find direction amid a stronger US dollar. The pair is hovering just below its pivot point of $1.1039, signaling potential weakness ahead. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1055, followed by $1.1066 and $1.1083. A break above these levels could trigger a bullish recovery, but the broader trend remains cautious as the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1082 continues to cap upside momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is noted at $1.1017, followed by $1.1002 and $1.0984. A breach below $1.1017 could accelerate selling pressure, with the next target at $1.1002. The RSI stands at 38, suggesting a bearish bias, though not yet in oversold territory, indicating the pair still has room for further declines.

Traders might consider a sell entry below $1.10387, targeting $1.10072, with a stop-loss placed at $1.10550. This setup aligns with the ongoing bearish momentum, as the pair remains below key moving averages and continues to test lower support levels. A sustained move below $1.1017 would confirm further downside potential, possibly pushing the pair toward $1.0984.

In the near term, the outlook for EUR/USD is tilted to the downside unless we see a significant break above $1.1055, which could negate the bearish scenario and attract new buyers.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.10387

Take Profit – 1.10072

Stop Loss – 1.10550

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$315/ -$163

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$31/ -$16

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Point in Focus: Gold remains cautiously bullish above the $2,663.15 pivot point.

- Immediate Resistance: Watch for a breakout above $2,671.80 to signal further gains.

- Support Levels: Key support at $2,651.14; a drop below this level could shift momentum.

Gold is currently trading at $2,662.35, gaining 0.27% and staying just below its pivot point of $2,663.15. This minor upward movement indicates a cautious optimism among traders as they await the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the metal's short-term trajectory. Immediate resistance is noted at $2,671.80, and a break above this level could push prices towards the next resistance points at $2,678.07 and $2,685.66.

On the downside, the $2,651.14 support level is pivotal, backed by the 50-day EMA at $2,651.08. If gold breaks below this level, it may extend its losses to $2,642.23 and possibly even $2,634.48. The RSI is currently at 58, suggesting moderate bullish momentum but with room to rise further before approaching overbought territory.

For traders looking to capitalize on short-term opportunities, a buy entry above $2,665 is recommended, targeting a take-profit level at $2,677, while maintaining a stop-loss at $2,654. This setup aligns with the expectation of bullish continuation if prices sustain above the pivot point. A successful breach above $2,671.80 would add to the bullish case, attracting more buyers and pushing gold toward the upper resistance levels.

However, if the NFP data surprises on the upside, a stronger US dollar could weigh on gold, driving it back toward support levels. For now, gold’s short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish above $2,665, with potential for further gains if technical conditions align favorably.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2665

Take Profit – 2677

Stop Loss – 2654

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.09

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$1100

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$120/ -$110

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Point Watch: S&P 500 remains neutral above the $5,677.51 pivot point.

- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $5,730.39 could signal potential bullish continuation.

- Support Levels: A break below $5,648.18 support may trigger bearish momentum.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at $5,699.95, a slight decline of 0.17% for the session, as market sentiment remains cautious ahead of key economic data. The index is hovering just above its pivot point at $5,677.51, signaling indecision among traders.

A breakout above immediate resistance at $5,730.39 could provide a bullish confirmation, with potential targets set at $5,763.04 and $5,792.65. This movement would suggest a recovery from the recent consolidation phase and could attract more buyers to the market.

On the downside, strong support is positioned at $5,648.18, followed by lower levels at $5,617.74 and $5,583.62. A break below these levels could trigger a bearish momentum, potentially pushing the index further down to retest these support zones. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $5,709.35 is currently acting as an overhead resistance, limiting upward momentum in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46, indicating a neutral market position. This suggests that neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand, leaving the index in a wait-and-see mode. For traders, a buy entry is recommended above $5,676, with a take-profit target at $5,737 and a stop-loss set at $5,647.

S&P 500 - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 5676

Take Profit – 5737

Stop Loss – 5647

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$610/ -$290

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$61/ -$29

Daily Price Outlook

- Uptrend Remains Strong: USD/JPY is trading well above its 50 EMA at 144.045, supporting the bullish bias.

- RSI in Overbought Territory: The RSI at 70 signals potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation phase.

- Critical Resistance at 147.248: A breakout above this level could drive the pair toward 147.866 and 148.567.

The U.S. Dollar (USD) is maintaining its upward trajectory against the Japanese Yen (JPY), currently trading at 146.768, up 0.22% for the session. The pair’s strength can be attributed to a combination of favorable U.S. economic data and continued monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

The 4-hour chart shows USD/JPY trading above its pivot point of 146.231, with bullish momentum pushing the price towards the immediate resistance level at 147.248. Further resistance is noted at 147.866 and 148.567, where a breakout could spark another leg higher.

Technical indicators reveal a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 70, suggesting that the pair is now approaching overbought territory. This could result in a short-term pullback or consolidation phase as traders look to lock in profits. On the support side, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 144.045, providing a solid floor that could limit any downward movement.

Immediate support stands at 145.585, followed by additional support levels at 145.104 and 144.609. A break below 145.585 could see the pair testing the 50 EMA near 144.045, though the overall uptrend remains intact as long as prices hold above the pivot point at 146.231.

Conclusion: With the pair nearing overbought conditions, traders may consider short positions if the price drops below 147.255, targeting 145.620, while placing a stop-loss at 148.227 to limit potential losses.

USD/JPY - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 147.255

Take Profit – 145.620

Stop Loss – 148.227

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1635/ -$972

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$163/ -$97