Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 10, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 10, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

Gold starts the new week on a somber note, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range around $1,925 during the Asian session. Traders appear hesitant to make significant moves as uncertainty looms regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate hike trajectory. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD remains confined within a familiar range maintained over the past few weeks.

The resurgence of demand for the US Dollar has weighed on the price of gold. The US labor market continues to show strength, evident in consistently robust wage growth and a marginal decrease in the unemployment rate. This reaffirms expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting in July.

Consequently, yields on US Treasury bonds have remained elevated, with the 10-year yield holding above 4.0% and the two-year yield at its highest level since June 2007. This renewed demand for the US Dollar has become a significant factor impacting the price of gold.

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor the release of Chinese CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which could provide new insights. Later in the week, attention will shift to the US Producer Price Index (PPI), the US University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for July, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The direction of gold prices in the near future will be influenced by these data points. Strong data may lead to increased US yields and lower gold prices, while volatile data could work in favor of the precious metal.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices are currently hovering around the $1929.00 level, with stochastic indicators showing clear negative signals. This suggests that there is a likelihood of the expected bearish wave continuing on both the intraday and short-term basis. The next main target to watch for is $1873.50.

To confirm the downward movement, it is important for the price to break below $1913.15. This level serves as a key initial resistance, and a breach of this level would indicate the potential for additional gains and a test of the significant resistance at $1945.20, before any new negative attempts.

For today's trading, the expected range is between support at $1900.00 and resistance at $1935.00.

Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bearish.

GOLD

Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 05, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 7, 2023
S&p500

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 index has experienced a continued decline during the Asian trading session, leading to worry among investors. However, the reason can be attributed to the rise in Treasury yields, which occurred after strong job market data was released just before the June monthly payroll report.

Investors are now fearing that the Federal Reserve might need to take additional measures to manage the economy and control inflation. These factors have resulted in market uncertainty and made investors uneasy.

Private Payrolls Show Strong Growth, Raising Expectations

In June, private payrolls showed significant growth, reaching 497,000 jobs, surpassing the previous month's figure of 267,000 and exceeding economists' expectations. This positive report has had a dominant impact, overshadowing other data such as higher-than-anticipated weekly initial jobless claims and a lower-than-expected number of job openings in May. Consequently, concerns have arisen that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to proceed with its guidance for two more interest rate hikes.

Thus, the positive report of significant private payroll growth in June, surpassing expectations, has impacted the S&P 500 price by causing concerns that the Federal Reserve may proceed with two more interest rate hikes. This has contributed to the downward trend in the S&P 500 and added to market uncertainty.

Market Worries Intensify with Weak Chinese Economic Data and Trade Conflict Risks

Adding to the market's worries, China has released a series of weak economic data, indicating concerns about a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Moreover, the risk of further escalation in the US-China trade conflict has dampened investor sentiment, resulting in a generally weaker tone across equity markets.

Amidst the concerns, the market reflects a 93% expectation of a rate hike in July, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Anticipating additional tightening measures from the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields have surged, with the 2-year and 10-year yields surpassing 5% and 4%, respectively.

Hence, the release of weak economic data from China, combined with the risk of escalating US-China trade tensions, has negatively impacted investor sentiment and contributed to a generally weaker tone across equity markets, including the S&P 500.

The Firming Expectations of an Interest Rate Hike

The market's firming expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming policy meeting on July 25-26 have significantly bolstered the US dollar. This belief was reinforced by the positive US ADP report, which indicated that private-sector employers added 497,000 jobs in June, surpassing the previous month's figure and exceeding the most optimistic estimates.

Therefore, the market's increasing expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, fueled by positive job growth reported in the US ADP report, have had a mixed impact on the S&P 500 price.

SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

Taking a look at the technical analysis of the S&P 500, it opened with a significant downside gap and closed lower.

The $4400 level appears to be a crucial support, as indicated by the ascending triangle pattern observed on the daily and four-hour time frames.

This pattern suggests a strong possibility of a continued bullish trend. Furthermore, the presence of the 50-day exponential moving average acts as a support zone, reinforcing the positive sentiment in the S&P 500.

Today's forecast suggests that the price is likely to remain around the $4400 level, with a potential target of $4450.

A successful breakout above this level could expose the S&P 500 to the $4480 level. On the other hand, a breakdown below the $4400 level may lead to a decline towards $4360 or even lower towards the $4330 level.

SPX

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 07, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 7, 2023
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

The British Pound is trading at 1.2740 decreasing by 0.02 percent on Friday. The monthly payrolls report still to come, heightened the possibility of higher Federal Reserve interest rates for a longer period, the U.S. dollar declined in early European hours on Friday but is still on track for modest gains this week.

JPMorgan thinks interest rates might reach 7% and foresees a "hard landing" in the UK.

According to JP Morgan, the dangers of an economic hard landing are also increasing, and the Bank of England may raise interest rates to 7% to control inflation.

Since borrowing costs are frequently connected with the primary interest rate set by the central bank, the study by JP Morgan economist Allan Monks comes as U.K. households see a dramatic spike in borrowing rates.

Looking ahead, a variety of variables, according to JPMorgan's Monks, might lead the central bank to raise rates more than anticipated.

As psychology changes and a persistent wage-price spiral takes hold, "high inflation might lead to a larger rise in inflation expectations. Elevated short-term expectations may potentially result in a more chronic issue, even if longer-term measures stay grounded, he noted.

To guarantee real rates, turn sufficiently positive to disrupt this dynamic, the BOE may be forced to raise rates above our prediction. These comments from JP Morgan analyst added pressure on British Pound.

The Upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll data is keeping Market steady

On US front, ADP private payrolls increased significantly in June, marking the greatest increase since February 2022, according to data released on Thursday. Last week saw a modest increase in the number of Americans submitting new unemployment benefit claims.

These data releases show a labor market that is durable and has withstood an aggressive tightening cycle that lasted a full year, indicating that the Federal Reserve can keep raising interest rates to completely control rising prices.

Now, attention will shift to the much-anticipated monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which might provide more hints about the Fed officials' plans for later this month.

This should display nonfarm payrolls. After growing by 339,000 in May and by 294,000 in April, nonfarm payrolls in the United States expanded by 225,000 jobs last month.

Traders are awaiting its release and are cautious ahead of it, causing little to no movement in the market.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingvie

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair displayed a mix of trading patterns, initially rising strongly to reach the 1.2780 level, but quickly retracing downwards to test the 1.2675 areas.

It is worth noting that the price currently holds above the crucial support level at 1.2720, indicating an attempt to regain the main bullish trend.

However, the price is currently confined within a rising wedge pattern, which could potentially lead to a correctional bearish movement.

Given the conflicting technical factors, we maintain a neutral stance until we receive clearer signals for the next trend.

Breaking below 1.2720 would likely push the price towards the next correctional station at 1.2640, while surpassing 1.2760 would be key to achieving new gains, potentially targeting the 1.2850 areas.

For today's trading, we anticipate the price to move within a range of support at 1.2640 and resistance at 1.2820.

Overall, the expected trend for today is neutral, considering the current market conditions.

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 07, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 7, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

Gold is trading at 1,920 increasing by 0.27 percent on Friday. The price of non-yielding gold is continuing to be hampered by growing predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points (bps) at its forthcoming policy meeting on 25–26 July.

After statistics released by Automatic Statistics Processing (ADP) on Thursday revealed that private-sector businesses in the United States (US) gained roughly 500K jobs in June, the bets were confirmed once again.

The XAU/USD is now trading at $1,920, almost unchanged for the day, and is susceptible to extending a downturn that has been going on for almost two months from the record high reached in May.

Increased US bond rates help the USD and hurt XAU/USD at the same time.

However, the statistics indicated a robust US economy, which supports expectations for additional Fed policy tightening. The US Dollar (USD), which is considered to be another factor impacting the US Dollar-denominated gold price, benefits from this by driving the US Treasury bond rates considerably higher.

The much-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is coming later in the early North American session, might have an impact on predictions regarding the Fed's rate-hike trajectory. This will then fuel USD demand and give the XAU/USD a new lease of life.

After the FOMC Minutes, Gold Declines; the XAU/USD Scenario Comes Before US Jobs Data

After the US Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes stoked expectations of another rate hike at the end of July, gold prices dropped.

Despite some members wanting to proceed with a rate rise, virtually all officials decided to maintain interest rates constant during the June meeting, according to the FOMC meeting minutes.

By the end of the year, 16 out of 18 authorities still predicted that the benchmark interest rate will increase by at least another quarter of a percentage point.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices concluded the previous session below the $1913.15 level, confirming the prevailing bearish trend in the short term. The price is aiming to re-enter the bearish channel observed on the chart and potentially extend the decline towards the next target at $1873.50.

The presence of the EMA50 continues to reinforce the suggested bearish momentum, and a breakthrough of $1907.00 would facilitate the achievement of the anticipated target. However, if the price surpasses $1913.15, it would be considered a positive development, leading to potential recovery attempts targeting $1929.00 and potentially reaching $1945.20 before any new downward move.

For today's trading, we anticipate the price to move within a range of support at $1890.00 and resistance at $1925.00.

Overall, the forecasted trend for today remains bearish, reflecting the current market sentiment.

GOLD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 06, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 6, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

EUR/USD currency pair has managed to stop its previous downward rally and shown strength during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the reason for its upward rally can be attributed to a more hawkish stance adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB).

In their recent statements, they expressed anticipations of raising interest rates at both the July and September meetings. Thus, this stance has provided support to the shared currency, resulting in a modest boost to the EUR/USD pair.

ECB Takes Cautious Stance, Plans Interest Rate Hikes Amid Lingering Inflation

As mentioned above, European Central Bank (ECB) officials showed a more cautious approach, indicating that they plan to increase interest rates in both July and September.

ECB President Lagarde mentioned that inflation has entered a new phase, and it may persist for a while. These remarks were seen as a key factor that has boosted the EUR/USD currency pair.

Fed Maintains Cautious Approach Amid Economic Uncertainties

Apart from ECB, Federal Reserve is being careful about their plans. They mentioned the possibility of increasing borrowing costs later this year, but they don't want to lower rates anytime soon. Their main concern is making sure inflation stays around 2% in the medium term.

Lately, some economic data in the US hasn't been very strong, like the PCE Price Index and ISM PMI. This has made people wonder if the Fed can keep raising interest rates. Investors are eagerly waiting for the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes to get an idea of what the Fed might do next.

Hence, the cautious outlook of the Federal Reserve will likely have an impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. If the Fed maintains a cautious stance and indicates a slower pace of interest rate increases, it may lead to a weakening of the US dollar. This could potentially strengthen the euro against the dollar, causing the EUR/USD currency pair to rise.

Market Focus on FOMC Minutes and Euro Zone Data

Looking forward, investors are waiting for the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes, as it will impact the near-term USD price and the EUR/USD pair. On the flip side, the final Services PMI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data are also important, but they may not strongly influence the currency pair's direction.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EURUSD pair kicked off the trading session today with a noticeable bearish tone, breaking the intraday bullish trend line and hinting at a potential slide throughout the day.

Our initial target for this downward move is around 1.0745, but keep a close eye on that level—it's a key point to watch. If the price manages to break below 1.0745, we might witness an extension of the bearish momentum, setting our sights on the 1.0630 area as the next major support level.

So, for today, we're leaning towards a bearish bias, and the fact that the price is trading below the EMA50 supports this view. However, it's worth noting that if we see a breakthrough above 1.0870, it could invalidate the negative scenario and potentially revive the main bullish trend.

In terms of the expected trading range, we anticipate it to fluctuate between the support level of 1.0730 and the resistance level of 1.0875.

All in all, the forecast for today's trend in the EURUSD pair points to a bearish outlook. So buckle up and let's see how the market unfolds!

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 06, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 6, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

Gold is trading at 1,926 decreasing by 0.02 percent on Thursday. The price of gold is being influenced by a combination of economic challenges and the worsening relationship between the United States and China.

A report from Reuters revealed that China's service sector experienced slower growth in June than initially anticipated, which has raised concerns about a global economic slowdown.

Moreover, the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies, the US and China, is dampening investor confidence in riskier assets. This negative sentiment is evident in the somber mood surrounding equity markets and is consequently bolstering the safe-haven appeal of gold.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's potential tightening of monetary policies could discourage traders from making excessive bullish bets on gold, as it is a non-yielding asset.

Impact on the XAU/USD Exchange Rate Due to Federal Reserve Bets

The release of the Federal Open Market Committee's policy meeting minutes for June revealed that nearly all members were in favor of resuming rate increases due to persistently high inflation. This aligns with market expectations of a 25-basis point lift-off at the upcoming FOMC meeting in July.

Consequently, there was a significant overnight increase in US Treasury bond rates. These developments, combined with a more hawkish stance taken by other major central banks, limited the upward movements in the gold price on Thursday.

Prudence Required as BoE and ECB Display Hawkish Outlooks

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to tighten its monetary policy by an additional 130 basis points by the end of the year, as indicated by current market pricing. Meanwhile, despite signs of economic slowdown in the Euro Zone, policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) anticipate raising borrowing costs in their July and September meetings.

Considering that the price of gold has recently recovered from its lowest level since mid-March, it is advisable for investors to exercise caution and refrain from making positioning decisions until there is significant follow-through buying.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices have decided to take a detour from their recent positive streak and are currently back on the decline, hovering around the $1913.15 level. If the price manages to break through this level, it will confirm a return to the bearish channel and could pave the way for further downward movement towards the $1873.50 areas.

While the price continues to sway below the EMA50, supporting the expected bearish trend, it might engage in some sideways movements before finding the necessary momentum to push lower and resume the anticipated bearish wave.

In the bigger picture, we maintain a bearish outlook for the foreseeable future, closely monitoring the price's behavior below the $1929.00 level.

For today's trading adventure, we anticipate the price to wander within a range of $1895.00 as a support level and $1930.00 as a resistance level.

So, the forecasted trend for today remains bearish, and we will be eagerly observing how gold unveils its enchanting moves.

GOLD

Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 06, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 6, 2023
S&p500

Daily Price Outlook

On Thursday, the SPX Index is -0.20% up from its previous 24-hours level at $4446.82. Carnival Corp. & PLC, with a 67.7% increase to a $23.46 billion market value as of June 30, was the best-performing S&P 500 company in June.

US Stocks Rally in June, Propelling S&P 500 to Record Highs

According to a report released by S&P Global, US stocks displayed a powerful resurgence in June, with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 experiencing gains. This remarkable rebound led to the S&P 500 reaching new heights, surging by 6.5% to an all-time high of 4,450.38. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average performed relatively weaker with a 4.6% increase, smaller-cap stocks stole the spotlight, recording the highest gains, with the Russell 2000 surging by 7.9%.

The consumer discretionary sector emerged as the frontrunner, posting an impressive 12.0% gain, followed closely by the industrials sector at 11.2% and the materials sector at 10.8%.

Carnival Corp. & PLC stood out as the top-performing stock in June, witnessing a substantial 67.7% surge in market capitalization. The company's positive earnings report, including better-than-expected adjusted losses and exceeding revenue projections, fueled its remarkable recovery. Conversely, Dollar General Corp. struggled, experiencing a significant decline of 15.6% due to disappointing earnings.

Overall, this robust performance across all sectors of the S&P 500 in June revitalized investor confidence, highlighting the resilience and attractiveness of the US stock market as a lucrative investment option. This report caped further losses on S&P 500 Index on Thursday.

Wall Street Retreats as Fed Meeting Minutes Signal Possible Rate Hikes

The investors were closely analyzing the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38%, shedding 129.83 points to close at 34,288.64. Similarly, the S&P 500 index slipped by 0.2%, settling at 4,446.82.

SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

On Thursday, the S&P 500 index is currently in an exciting phase, as it consolidates above a key support area of 4,440. The candles closing above this level indicate a strong possibility of the ongoing bullish trend continuing its upward journey. It's like the index is putting on a bullish show for us!

To further confirm this breakthrough, we can see a bullish candle that has closed above the mentioned support level. This adds more fuel to the bullish fire. As we look ahead, our eyes should be on the next resistance levels at 4,511 and 4,525. These levels might act as hurdles for the index as it reaches for new heights.

However, we must also keep in mind that a breach of the support at 4,440 could have a significant impact, potentially triggering a substantial downward movement. In such a scenario, we anticipate a strong support level around 4,395 coming into play.

Given all this excitement, it becomes crucial for us to closely monitor the 4,440 level. It holds the potential to be a turning point for today's trading activities. So let's keep our eyes peeled and enjoy the thrill ride of the S&P 500 index!

SPX

Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – July 05, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 5, 2023
S&p500

Daily Price Outlook

On Wednesday, the SPX Index is +0.12% up from its previous 24-hours level at $4455.59. According to the head analyst at BMO, a bullish scenario would see the S&P 500 index increase by another 13% by year's end.

Tech and bank stocks may help the S&P 500 reach a new high, according to the head of BMO's investment division.

Thanks to better-than-expected tech and bank sector results, the S&P 500 might increase by another 13% to reach a new high by the end of the year, according to the head of BMO's investment division.

With the S&P 500 already up 16% this year, Belski's 5,050-point price goal would see the index continue its remarkable run from the first half of 2023.

Belski thinks that both equities and fixed-income assets have entered a "normalization phase" as the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its tightening cycle, after offering dismal returns in 2022. Many analysts have identified the rise of AI as the primary driver behind the stock-market rally.

"That's a great position to have in both bonds and stocks going forward for at least the next three to five years," Belski noted.

In such a case, the benchmark index would rise due to better-than-anticipated tech and bank results, according to Brian Belski.

Tesal's exceptional Q2 performance sparked an upswing in EV companies

The best-performing stock was Tesla, with shares rising 6.9% as a result of production and delivery figures that exceeded expectations. Other electric car stocks including Rivian, Fisker, and Lucid also saw this upward trend.

Additionally, major banks performed well, increasing dividends and passing the Federal Reserve's health assessment. The S&P 500 banks index grew by 1.5%, Citigroup jumped by 1.5%, and Wells Fargo shares surged by 1.7%.

Since Tesla consistently outperforms the competition, all EV manufacturers increase gain. The S&P 500 is rising because of the outstanding performance of Tesla.

SPX Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

Based on technical analysis, the S&P 500 index has successfully surpassed the critical resistance level at 4,440, indicating a strong likelihood of an ongoing bullish trend. The confirmation of this breakthrough is evident through the presence of a bullish candle closing above the mentioned level. Moving forward, the next resistance levels to monitor are at 4,511 and 4,525.

Conversely, a breach of the support at 4,440 could trigger a substantial downward movement, with a significant support level anticipated around 4,395.

Supporting the positive outlook, the exponential moving average and indicators like the relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence all align with the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the SPX.

These indicators suggest that the upward trend is likely to persist. Therefore, it is crucial to closely observe the 4,440 level as it holds the potential to serve as a pivotal point for today's trading activities.

SPX

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – July 05, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 5, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

Gold is trading at 1,933 increasing by 0.01 percent on Wednesday. The gold price falls throughout the Asian session on Wednesday amid the hawkish Central Bank and modest US dollar strength.

The focus remains on the minutes of the June FOMC meeting.

After its policy meeting on June 13–14, the Fed stated that an interest rate increase of 50 basis points (bps) was necessary before the year was over. However, the incoming US macroeconomic data sparked concerns about the Fed's ability to continue tightening its monetary policy.

In reality, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced last Friday that despite a significant slowdown in consumer spending in May, inflation pressures somewhat lessened.

Therefore, the minutes will be carefully examined for hints regarding the Fed's potential rate-hike path, which will in turn be crucial in deciding the next leg of the non-yielding gold price's directional movement.

The FOMC meeting minutes are now eagerly anticipated by traders before they make new directional bets.

While waiting for the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on July 25–26, there is rising support for a 25–bps lift-off, which supports higher US Treasury bond rates and supports the US Dollar (USD).

This is then considered to be a major factor affecting the price of gold expressed in US dollars. Additionally, the hawkish stance of other significant central banks limits increases for the XAU/USD. Worries over a worldwide economic slowdown, particularly in China, have dampened the downside, which typically benefits the safe-haven precious metal.

The XAU/USD is hampered by hawkish central banks and a little increase in the US Dollar.

Losses for XAU/USD might be limited by deteriorating US-China relations.

Two metals that are frequently utilized in semiconductors, electric cars, and high-tech sectors were subject to export restrictions by China. The change, which is scheduled to go into force on August 1, would further disrupt the world's supply.

However, the unexpected declaration may intensify a trade spat with the US, discouraging traders from making aggressive wagers against the price of gold amid its safe-haven status.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices are currently exhibiting fluctuations around the $1929.00 level and remain consolidated below it. Notably, the stochastic indicator shows a negative overlap, suggesting a potential catalyst for the price to resume the correctional bearish trend.

In this scenario, the initial targets for the downward movement begin at $1913.15, with a potential extension to $1873.50 following a break below the previous level.

Maintaining a position below $1929.00 is of significant importance to sustain the expected decline. However, a breach above this level could pave the way for a new upward movement, with a target of testing $1945.20 before any renewed negative attempts.

For today's trading, the expected range is anticipated to be between the support level of $1900.00 and the resistance level of $1935.00.

Based on the analysis, the expected trend for today is bearish.

GOLD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 04, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 5, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains in a neutral stance as it hovers around the 1.1011 level, while earlier on Wednesday in Europe, it faced downward pressure near the weekly low at 1.0880.

The lack of significant movement in the pair can be attributed to the cautious sentiment surrounding the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for the June meeting and the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) for May.

The sellers find support from the continued trading below the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), along with bearish indications from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.

Notably, the 50-day SMA is approaching a bearish cross and has crossed below the 100-day SMA, indicating the potential for further decline in the major currency pair.

The EUR/USD bears are eyeing the upward-sloping support line from May 31 near 1.0860, although the pair's decline may be limited unless it breaches the 1.0820 support level marked by the 200-day SMA.

However, short-term upside momentum is hindered by the convergence of the 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA, which currently align around 1.0910.

The Euro buyers will need to regain control and overcome the two-week-old downward-sloping resistance line, located around 1.0920, for a potential upward move.

As EUR/USD slides below 1.0900 ahead of the Eurozone PPI and FOMC minutes, concerns about a stronger US Dollar and weaker Euro prices contribute to the ongoing pressure.

It is important to monitor the market conditions and the risk-off sentiment as they may lead to further declines in the pair.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a subdued downtrend, gradually approaching the 1.0860 level. Notably, the price has recorded the third consecutive lower high, as depicted on the chart, indicating a potential triple top pattern.

To activate the negative impact of this pattern, a break below the neckline at 1.0840 is awaited, which could initiate a bearish move towards our projected targets starting at 1.0795 and extending to 1.0730.

Therefore, we maintain our suggestion of a bearish trend for the foreseeable future, supported by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50 indicator.

It is important to note that a breach above 1.0940 would invalidate the aforementioned technical formation and potentially lead to a price recovery, with gains potentially reaching 1.1075 in the near term.

For today's trading, the expected range is anticipated to be between the support level of 1.0800 and the resistance level of 1.0940.

EUR/USD