Daily Price Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) faltered in its attempt to break through a significant resistance level, retreating just as it neared the mark. This pullback has seen BTC revert to its trend of range-bound trading, suggesting that short-term holders have opted to hold on to their assets instead of cashing in on profits.

Analysts continue to assess the conditions needed for the leading cryptocurrency to take a decisive step.

Bitcoin Pulls Back from $31,000; Expert Provides Analysis

Following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, Bitcoin's price experienced a slight uptick, nearly reaching the critical resistance point of $31,000 before dropping again.

According to Yann Allemann, co-founder of Glassnode and CEO of Swissblock Technologies, this "immediate response to the CPI data release" can be attributed to traders, likely large investors, setting buying and selling limits to control volatility.

Altcoins Set to Rally as Bitcoin's Capital Rotation Looms

If this theory holds, we might be on the cusp of an altcoin season. This term refers to the phase when profits from Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and/or new capital, potentially from an ETF, flow into alternative cryptocurrencies.

As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance decreases due to the shift in capital, and its supremacy in terms of market capitalization shrinks. This increase in market share is a typical outcome of the altcoin season.

Despite the influence of macroeconomic factors and other market dynamics, Bitcoin's price remains stable, oscillating within a specific range. Ethereum's price is mirroring this static movement. These patterns suggest that short-term traders prefer accumulating assets over booking profits.

This trend is vital as it implies that altcoins like Ripple (XRP) will bear the brunt of regulatory crackdowns on their ilk, as long as the two leading cryptocurrencies continue their stable performance.

BTC/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

BTC/USD - Technical analysis

Bitcoin's price experienced difficulty in garnering positive momentum after the release of US CPI data. Currently hovering under $30,500, there looms a possible risk of a decline towards the $29,850 mark.

Despite efforts to ascend above the resistance zone of $30,500, Bitcoin met resistance around $30,850, prompting a downward shift. The price subsequently broke beneath a linked upward trend line and the support at $30,500, plummeting to an approximate low of $30,230.

At present, Bitcoin is stabilizing its losses beneath $30,500 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.

Near-term resistance is spotted around the $30,400 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average, succeeded by the $30,550 area.

A breach above the $30,550 mark could instigate bullish momentum, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards the $30,850 resistance and then to the major resistance at $31,000.

If Bitcoin is unable to surpass the $30,500 resistance, it may undergo another downturn. Immediate support is located around the $30,230 level, followed by the next crucial support close to the $30,000 mark.

Additional declines could drive the price towards the support zone of $29,850, and potentially even lower towards $29,400.

Daily Price Outlook

The upward trend in EUR/USD persists, continuing to mark gains for the day, with the intraday bias favoring an upward trajectory. The current rise from 1.0634 is projected to retest the high of 1.1094.

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Bullish momentum fuelled by July's Fed rate hike limitations

The singular remaining option for a Fed interest rate hike by year's end, owing to underwhelming US CPI data, has enabled a steady bullish momentum for the EUR/USD pair.

Nearing the 1.1150 mark, the currency pair is exhibiting strong upward momentum as the market sentiment is buoyant and the US Dollar Index (DXY) braces for a dip.

With a noticeable decrease in annualized figures due to falling used car prices, both the headline and core inflation in the US for June recorded a modest increase of 0.2%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a sharp plunge to approximately 101.40, and it is expected to continue this downward trajectory.

As a countermeasure to persistent inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to raise interest rates further. As stated by ECB President Christine Lagarde, additional rate hikes are crucial.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Techncial analysis

The EUR/USD pair continues to show a strong bullish tendency, steadily moving towards our predicted target at 1.1184. This upward trend is bolstered by a successful breach of the bullish channel's resistance as indicated on the chart, signifying the potential for sustained upward movement in the short and medium term.

Further ascents are anticipated, potentially touching 1.1275.

As a result, we foresee continued upward movement in the upcoming trading sessions, bolstered by the support of the EMA50. It's worth noting that a drop below 1.1075 could interrupt the projected rise and might cause a bearish correction before the bullish trend resumes.

The estimated trading range for today is likely between the support level of 1.1080 and the resistance level of 1.1235.

Overall, today's trend is expected to lean towards the bullish side.

Daily Price Outlook

Currently, gold is trading at $1912.30 per troy ounce in US dollars, reflecting an increase from $1899.60 the previous day and $1817.00 a year ago. This equates to a 5.24% increase from last year and a 0.67% rise from the last market day.

The outlook for gold prices, represented as XAU/USD, seems positive as it encounters minor roadblocks around the $1,960 resistance level during the late Asian trading session.

The easing of US inflationary pressures, to a point where the Federal Reserve may only implement a single interest rate hike by year's end, is anticipated to boost the precious metal's upward trajectory.

As the second-quarter earnings season looms, the US-500 stock index is likely to exhibit some volatility despite the S&P 500 futures marking strong gains and US markets ending positively on Wednesday. A robust risk-on sentiment pervades the market.

After a five-day downward spiral, the US Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have steadied at 100.50, with reduced fears of a possible recession following a general easing in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The market will closely monitor the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data set to be released on Thursday.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices are currently riding a strong upward trend, successfully breaking past the $1945.20 mark. A detailed examination of the chart reveals the completion of a 'double bottom' pattern, suggesting that this upward trajectory could continue in the coming trading sessions.

Our next objective is set at the $1977.25 point, and breaking past this level could trigger a further rally towards the $2000.00 mark, followed by an additional target of $2016.90.

Thus, we foresee an ongoing bullish trend in the intraday scenario, bolstered by the support from the EMA50 which is fueling this upward drive. However, it is crucial to bear in mind that a fall below the $1945.20 level could interrupt the projected rise and potentially swing the price back onto a bearish path.

Today's trading range is likely to oscillate between the support level at $1950.00 and the resistance level at $1980.00. All in all, the market trend for today is expected to lean bullish.

Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session, it reached a nearly three-week high. However, spot prices have slightly declined in the past hour and are currently trading near the 0.6720 level, still maintaining a gain of over 0.50% for the day.

The continuous decline in the value of the US Dollar (USD) for the past five days, fueled by rumors of the Federal Reserve (Fed) concluding its rate-hiking cycle, has been a significant positive for the AUD/USD pair.

Furthermore, a generally positive market sentiment has contributed to pushing the safe-haven dollar to a two-month low, providing support to the risk-on Australian dollar.

Nonetheless, with the upcoming release of US consumer inflation data during the early North American session, cautiousness prevails among bulls, resulting in restrained trading activities.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair starts today's trading session with strong positive momentum, distancing itself from the 0.6665 level. This reinforces the expectation of a continued bullish trend on an intraday basis, with a target of 0.6780 being the main focus.

Upon closer analysis of the chart, we observe the completion of a double bottom pattern, which suggests the potential for the price to surpass the mentioned level and achieve further gains, targeting 0.6850, followed by 0.6924.

Consequently, we anticipate a predominance of bullish sentiment in the upcoming sessions, contingent on the price remaining stable above 0.6665.

The expected trading range for today is projected to be between the support level at 0.6690 and the resistance level at 0.6790.

Overall, the outlook for today's trend is bullish.

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GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023

GOLD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 11, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) surged to a new three-week high, reaching $1,941.60.

This upward movement is attributed to the significant pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY) caused by the anticipation of a further decline in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which has strengthened the precious metal's position above the $1,940.00 level.

S&P 500 futures, after reaching a high on Tuesday, have exhibited choppy behavior, indicating a relatively calm market sentiment in the overall positive risk profile. Investors are cautious ahead of the release of second-quarter corporate earnings and inflation figures.

The yields on US 10-year Treasury notes have slightly decreased and are currently around 3.96%.

Although the USD Index has found temporary support near 101.35, the negative bias remains strong. While it is premature to completely dismiss the US Dollar, economists at Commerzbank believe that the Friday labor market report was not as negative as anticipated.

They hold the opinion that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its key rate once more at the end of July due to their view that the labor market is still too tight.

Investors are primarily focused on the upcoming inflation figures. It is predicted that both monthly and core inflation will continue to rise steadily at a rate of 0.3%.

The headline CPI annualized statistics are expected to ease to 3.1%, while core CPI is anticipated to ease to 5.0%. Additionally, investors will closely monitor the release of the Fed's Beige Book, along with the inflation data.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices have successfully surpassed the $1929.00 level, confirmed by the daily candlestick closing above it. The next crucial resistance stands at $1945.20, supported by the EMA50. However, caution is advised as stochastic indicators display negative signals that could impede further upward movement.

It is recommended to remain on the sidelines until clearer signals for the next trend emerge, either by breaking the resistance at $1945.20 or the support at $1929.00.

A breach of the resistance would lead to additional gains targeting $1977.25, while breaking the support could reintroduce bearish pressure, potentially testing the $1913.15 level initially.

Breaking this level would open the path for a decline towards the next negative target at $1873.45.

The expected trading range for today is anticipated to be between the support level at $1920.00 and the resistance level at $1960.00. Overall, the trend for today is expected to be neutral.

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GBP/USD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023

GOLD Price Analysis – July 11, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair received support from the overall weakness in the US Dollar (USD) and other factors. After hitting a daily low of 1.2853, the pair is currently trading at 1.2923.

However, the Pound Sterling's upside potential is being limited by concerns over a hawkish stance from the Bank of England (BoE) and its impact on the economic outlook.

As labor cost data showed more stability than expected, the Pound Sterling (GBP) faced selling pressure after a strong rally above the key resistance level of 1.2900.

The increased likelihood of a significant interest rate hike by the BoE has bolstered the GBP/USD pair. The BoE recognizes that higher disposable income will boost household spending power and drive overall demand.

Looking ahead, the pound sterling may encounter strong resistance at the 1.29 level. Despite reaching its highest point since April 2022, the GBP/USD pair's upward momentum could be dampened by negative changes in risk sentiment and a mixed employment report from the UK.

Nevertheless, the pair maintains its position above 1.2910, supported by the broad-based selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and the potential for additional rate increases by the BoE.

Continuing its ascent, the GBP/USD pair surpassed the crucial 1.2950 level ahead of the release of US inflation data. During the early Asian session on Wednesday, the pair remains firm, moving closer to 15-month highs.

The ongoing weakness in the US Dollar (USD) and the potential for further rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) contribute to the pair's upward momentum.

The GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit strong upward momentum, nearing our primary target of 1.3000. We anticipate this bullish trend to persist in the upcoming sessions, with additional targets at 1.3075 in focus.

As the price remains above 1.2848, the bullish bias is expected to maintain its dominance on both intraday and short-term timeframes, supported by the presence of a bullish channel on the chart.

However, it is important to note that a bearish correction is anticipated as the GBP/USD pair has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a potential pullback in price.

For today's trading, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade within a range, with support at 1.2890 and resistance at 1.3050.

In summary, the overall trend for today is expected to be bullish, although there is a possibility of a bearish correction. Traders should closely monitor price levels and market conditions for potential trading opportunities.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair is displaying clear upward momentum as it approaches our primary target at 1.3000. We anticipate the bullish bias to persist in the upcoming sessions, aiming for additional positive targets at 1.3075.

Hence, the bullish trend is expected to maintain its dominance on both intraday and short-term bases, characterized by the presence of a bullish channel on the chart. It is crucial for the price to stay above 1.2848 to achieve the anticipated targets.

However, it is worth noting that a bearish correction is anticipated as the GBP/USD pair has entered the overbought zone.

The projected trading range for today is situated between the support level at 1.2890 and the resistance level at 1.3050.

Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bullish with a possibility of a bearish correction.

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GOLD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 12, 2023

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 10, 2023

Daily Price Outlook

During Tuesday's Asian session, gold experienced a slight uptick in price. However, it lacks strong bullish sentiment and remains significantly below a key resistance level tested last week, near $1,935. Currently, traders are cautiously trading XAU/USD above the $1,925 mark, registering a modest gain of just over 0.10% for the day.

The weakening US Dollar provides support to the gold price.

The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds significant importance for the Federal Reserve's near-term policy stance, which, in turn, will impact the demand for the US Dollar and potentially drive momentum in the gold price.

As the US Dollar continues to decline for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level since May 11, there is growing belief that the US central bank is nearing the end of its policy tightening cycle. This sentiment bolsters the value of gold, which is denominated in US Dollars.

Additionally, the latest US monthly employment figures, released on Friday, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, further contribute to the weakening US Dollar.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls target the $1,930 level amid US Dollar pressure from inflation concerns

Following a lackluster start to the week, the gold price (XAU/USD) has gained momentum and reached an intraday high around $1,928 during the mid-Asian session on Tuesday.

It is noteworthy that the primary driver behind the movements in XAU/USD appears to be the general weakness of the US Dollar, which is influenced by concerns over negative job and inflation data in the United States.

Consequently, the precious metal seems to be disregarding economic worries stemming from China and the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve's speeches.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices remain modestly bullish around the $1,930.00 level, demonstrating resilience below $1,934. Despite a slight loss of positive momentum indicated by the stochastic indicator, there is potential for the expected uptrend to resume on an intraday basis.

The initial target for this bullish move is at $1,913.15, with a break above this level possibly pushing the price towards the next significant target at $1,873.50.

Sustaining a position above $1,929.00 is crucial to maintain the anticipated upward momentum. If the price successfully breaches this level, it could lead to short-term gains, with the $1,945.20 level becoming a potential testing ground before any renewed negative attempts.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to be between the support level at $1,905.00 and the resistance level at $1,940.00.

Overall, the outlook for today suggests a bullish trend in the gold market.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair benefited from positive Australian sentiment data and the overall weakness in the US Dollar as bulls successfully broke above the critical resistance level of 0.6700 on Tuesday morning.

The pair capitalized on the lower US jobs report and negative US inflation forecasts, while paying little attention to recent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and the easing inflation concerns in China.

The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for Australia exceeded expectations in July, rising by 2.7%. Additionally, the National Australia Bank's monthly business confidence numbers for June showed encouraging results. Business conditions improved from a score of 8 to 9, while business confidence increased from -4.0% to 0.0%.

Despite these positive Australian indicators, Federal Reserve officials continued to maintain a hawkish stance, which tested the resilience of the AUD/USD bulls. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, emphasized the need for additional rate hikes to bring inflation back to the Fed's target.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester also suggested the necessity of further monetary policy tightening to address inflation concerns. Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, Michael Barr, emphasized the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to the target level.

Looking ahead, traders monitoring the AUD/USD pair should focus on the risk factors that could influence intraday movements, as the economic calendar is relatively light before the significant events on Wednesday.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair has made a rebound, surpassing the 0.6665 level and closing above it, indicating the potential for a bullish wave on an intraday basis. Our analysis suggests a possible move towards the next significant level at 0.6780.

The presence above the EMA50 provides support for the anticipated bullish trend, and breaking above 0.6705 would facilitate the achievement of our target. However, the bullish trend remains valid as long as the pair does not break below 0.6665 and sustain below it.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to be between the support level at 0.6640 and the resistance level at 0.6750.

Overall, the outlook for today indicates a bullish trend in the AUD/USD pair.

Daily Price Outlook

During the early trading hours in Europe on Monday, the GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on Friday's upward movement and continues to trade above the 1.2800 level. Presently, the pair is defensively trading at 1.2801, marking a 0.35% increase for the day.

As long as the GBP/USD pair maintains its position above the 50- and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the daily chart, the pair is expected to have a bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms this by showing the pair in a bullish zone, currently at 61.70.

The immediate resistance level for GBP/USD lies near 1.2850, indicating the upper limit of the Bollinger Band. Beyond that, the next barriers are the April 13 low and a resistance level at 1.2975. A break above the latter would trigger a rally towards the high of March 23 at 1.3248.

On the downside, the midline of the Bollinger Band, at 1.2730, is seen as the initial support level.

GBP/USD is trading below the year-to-date (YTD) high due to modest strength in the US Dollar, but it continues to hold above the 1.2800 level.

The start of the new week sees GBP/USD trading in a subdued manner, retracing some of the recent gains that propelled it to its highest level since April 2022 on Friday. Throughout the Asian session, price movement has been limited within a narrow trading range, currently hovering around the 1.2820-1.2815 region with a slight decline of just over 0.10% for the day.

Traders may exercise caution and refrain from taking significant risks as they await the release of the UK monthly employment figures on Tuesday.

Additionally, Wednesday's release of the latest US consumer inflation data will have a significant impact on the near-term dynamics of the USD and potentially provide the GBP/USD pair with a new direction.

In the absence of any significant market-moving economic announcements, traders on Monday will closely follow the speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey for potential short-term opportunities.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair experienced a strong upward rally in recent sessions, breaking the 1.2780 level and reaching a new high at 1.2848. However, the price encountered solid resistance at this level, resulting in a bearish bias supported by stochastic negativity.

As a result, we anticipate a continuation of the bearish bias today, with the price likely to test the key support level of 1.2720. It's important to note that a breach of 1.2848 would halt the expected decline and potentially lead to a resumption of the main bullish trend.

For today's trading, the expected range is between support at 1.2720 and resistance at 1.2880.

Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD is currently sitting at weekly highs above 1.0950, experiencing a calm start to what promises to be an eventful week. The USD/EUR exchange rate remains stable above 1.0950, close to Friday's eight-day high of 1.0975. The pair is holding onto its gains from the previous week.

The EUR/USD pair saw further recovery from near the 1.0830 level on Friday, following the erratic trading activity triggered by the US labor market report. Weak US payrolls data caused significant losses for the US Dollar, resulting in a substantial increase in the primary currency pair.

Non-farm payrolls for June came in at 209k, below the estimated 225k, indicating a cooling job market. May and April's NFPs were also revised downward, suggesting a slowdown in employment.

June's Average Hourly Earnings, a measure of wage inflation, showed 0.4% growth compared to a forecast of 0.3%, matching May's revised figure of 0.4%. The weaker US jobs data led investors to reconsider their expectations of a more aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve, resulting in the EUR/USD pair moving back towards 1.1000 at the expense of the US Dollar.

Following the anticipated 25 basis point rate hike by the US central bank this month, the market is currently pricing in a nearly 70% probability of a halt to Fed rate hikes in September.

The Euro's potential upside is temporarily constrained due to conflicting remarks made by ECB officials over the weekend. ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that Eurozone rates will soon reach their peak but it will be more of a low than a high.

On the other hand, ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno expressed his anticipation of inflation in the Eurozone being below 3% by the end of 2023.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

Last Friday, the EURUSD pair closed above the 1.0940 level, signaling a shift towards an upward trend and paving the way for a bullish wave on the intraday basis. The next target to watch is 1.1075, indicating further upside potential.

With the price moving above the EMA50, the overall bias remains bullish in the upcoming sessions. However, some sideways movement may occur due to stochastic negativity. It's important to wait for positive momentum to confirm the achievement of the expected target.

On the flip side, breaking below 1.0940 would halt the suggested bullish wave and potentially lead to a price decline.

For today's trading, the expected range is between 1.0900 support and 1.1050 resistance.