GOLD Price Analysis – June 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the bullish US dollar and risk-on sentiment, the safe-haven gold has maintained its upward momentum, staying well bid around the $2,343 level and reaching an intraday high of $2,345. This upward trend can be attributed to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in financial markets, which have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, the previously released weaker-than-expected Retail Sales have fueled speculation of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later this year, weighing on the US dollar and contributing to gold's gains.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on several key economic indicators and events in the United States. These include the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and a speech by Fed official Neel Kashkari on Thursday. Additionally, on Friday, attention will turn to the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports for June.
Bullish US Dollar Limits Gold's Upside Amidst Reduced Rate Cut Expectations
Despite earlier expectations and speculation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to weaker Retail Sales data and concerns about economic slowdown, the US dollar is gaining momentum. This was supported by signs of easing inflation and a stabilizing economy. Moreover, an uptick in US Treasury bond yields has increased demand for the USD, contrasting with previous expectations of rate cuts, which typically weaken a currency.
However, the Fed's revised projection of one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three, has further bolstered Treasury yields and limited gold's upward potential. Therefore, the strong US dollar, fueled by diminished expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and positive economic indicators, is putting downward pressure on gold prices. Investors are preferring the dollar over precious metals amid economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Investors to Safe-Haven Assets
On the geopolitical front, the long-lasting tensions between Israel and Gaza show no signs of slowing down. This can be witnessed by the recent Israeli attacks near the Karem Abu Salem aid crossing in Rafah, which resulted in nine deaths and 30 injuries among civilians awaiting aid trucks.
In Gaza, recent Israeli military actions have claimed 24 lives and left 71 injured, according to the enclave’s Health Ministry. Additionally, a United Nations commission has accused Israeli authorities of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity amid the conflict, which has already resulted in over 37,000 deaths and more than 85,000 injuries since October 7.
Therefore, heightened tensions and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza have driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, influencing its price amidst geopolitical uncertainty and escalating conflict in the region.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2331.94, up 0.03%, as it navigates a range-bound environment. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivot point at $2342.00, crucial for assessing the next price movement. Immediate resistance is at $2339.37, followed by $2353.95 and $2369.24. These levels are critical for any bullish advance.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $2308.16, with further support at $2297.24 and $2287.04. These levels are significant to prevent deeper declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59, indicating moderate momentum without overbought conditions, suggesting room for further movement.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2320.59 provides substantial support, reinforcing the current price level. The overall outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish above the $2342.00 pivot point.
A break above this level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting the higher resistance levels. Conversely, a drop below immediate support at $2308.16 might trigger further selling pressure.
The strategic entry point is set to buy above $2326, with a take profit target at $2342 and a stop loss at $2318. This setup aims to capitalize on potential upward movements while managing downside risks.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – June 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward rally and remained well bid around the 0.6541 level, hitting an intraday high of 0.6680. The upward trend can be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment, which supports riskier assets such as the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took a hawkish stance at its June meeting on Tuesday, which further bolstered the AUD/USD pair. Conversely, the US dollar weakened due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, which weighed on the Greenback and contributed to the gains in the AUD/USD pair.
Impact of RBA's Hawkish Stance on AUD/USD Outlook
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is gaining ground because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a hawkish stance at its June meeting. Despite acknowledging economic uncertainties and challenges in achieving inflation targets, the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% hinted at a cautious optimism.
Governor Michele Bullock emphasized a readiness to take necessary actions to stabilize inflation. Traders are eyeing the upcoming Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI for June, expected to improve to 50.6, which could influence future RBA decisions and potentially support the Australian dollar against the USD.
Therefore, the hawkish RBA stance and potential economic recovery indicated by the PMI could bolster the AUD/USD pair amid expectations of delayed rate cuts and improved sentiment towards the Australian dollar.
Impact of US Economic Indicators on AUD/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar lost some of its gains due to earlier expectations and speculation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This shift was influenced by weaker Retail Sales data and concerns about economic slowdown, which have tempered market optimism. Meanwhile, the Fed's revised projection of only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three, could help the US dollar limit its losses. This adjustment has stabilized Treasury yields and restored some investor confidence, countering earlier concerns about economic slowdown and reducing downward pressure on the dollar.
Therefore, the US dollar's mild bearish bias, driven by reduced rate cut expectations and stabilized Treasury yields, ease downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair amid improved investor sentiment towards the dollar.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on several key economic indicators and events in the United States. These include the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and a speech by Fed official Neel Kashkari on Thursday. Additionally, on Friday, attention will turn to the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports for June.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66716, showing a slight decline of 0.08%. The 4-hour chart highlights key technical levels that are crucial for traders. The pivot point at $0.6675 is a significant marker for determining the next direction of price movement. Immediate resistance is seen at $0.6690, with further resistance levels at $0.6704 and $0.6719. These resistance points are essential barriers that could cap any potential upward movement.
On the support side, immediate support is located at $0.6654, followed by stronger support levels at $0.6641 and $0.6630. These support levels are vital in preventing further declines in the AUD/USD pair.
Technical Indicators:
The bearish outlook is supported by the current price action, which is below the pivot point of $0.6675. Market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by global economic factors and domestic data releases that impact the Australian dollar.
Conclusion:
For traders looking to capitalize on the current bearish trend, an entry price below $0.66745 is recommended. The take profit level is set at $0.66484, with a stop loss at $0.66897 to manage potential risks.
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- USD/JPY Price Analysis – June 20, 2024
USD/JPY Price Analysis – June 20, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has showed a bullish trend and remained well bid around the 158.44 mark, hitting the intra-day high of 158.51 level. However, the bullish sentiment is primarily driven by several factors including the Bank of Japan's conservative stance, evident in its decision to delay tapering Japanese Government Bond purchases. This move suggests prolonged accommodative monetary policy, reducing confidence in the Yen and bolstering the Dollar's position against it in currency markets.
Furthermore, the global equity markets' upbeat mood has contributed to diminishing demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. As investors seek higher returns in riskier assets, the allure of the Yen as a safe-haven diminishes, further supporting the bullish case for the USD/JPY pair.
BoJ’s Cautious Approach and the Upbeat Market Mood Undermine the Safe-Haven JPY and Its Impact on USD/JPY Pair
On the BOJ front, the Bank of Japan's cautious strategy regarding tapering asset purchases has significant implications for the USD/JPY pair. By postponing discussions on reducing stimulus, the BoJ indicates a commitment to keeping monetary policy accommodative, which typically weakens the Japanese Yen. This diminishes the Yen's status as a safe-haven currency, prompting investors to favor higher-yield assets and riskier investments instead.
Moreover, the upbeat mood in global equity markets further undermines the demand for the safe-haven JPY. Investors, seeking higher returns, move away from safe assets like the Yen towards currencies linked to economic growth, such as the US Dollar. This shift supports the USD/JPY pair's upward trend, indicating a preference for riskier investments over safe havens.
Fed Rate-Cut Uncertainty Keeps the USD Bulls on the Defensive and Caps Gains for the Major and Its Impact on USD/JPY Pair
Despite the USD/JPY pair's bullish momentum, uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding interest rates have tempered the US Dollar's strength. The market sentiment anticipates potential rate cuts by the Fed amidst signs of subsiding inflation and economic uncertainties. This cautious stance by the Fed keeps USD bulls on the defensive, limiting the extent of gains for the USD/JPY pair.
Investors closely monitor Federal Reserve communications and economic indicators for clues about future monetary policy actions. Speculations of multiple rate cuts this year suggest a less aggressive outlook for the US Dollar, contrasting with the more accommodative stance of other central banks, including the BoJ.
This divergence in monetary policy expectations influences investor sentiment and contributes to volatility in the USD/JPY pair, as market participants adjust their positions based on evolving economic data and central bank rhetoric.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at $158.110, reflecting a modest increase of 0.04%. The 4-hour chart outlines key technical levels that are crucial for traders to watch. The pivot point at $158.1940 is a significant marker for determining the next direction of price movement. Immediate resistance is noted at $158.5240, with further resistance levels at $158.8310 and $159.1500. These resistance points could pose challenges for the pair’s upward trajectory.
On the support side, immediate support is situated at $157.6190, followed by more substantial support levels at $157.1500 and $156.7300. These support levels are critical for preventing further declines in the USD/JPY pair.
Technical Indicators:
The overall technical outlook suggests a bullish sentiment above the pivot point of $158.1940.
For traders looking to capitalize on the current trend, an entry price above $158.245 is recommended. The take profit level is set at $158.800, with a stop loss at $157.800 to manage potential risks.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – June 20, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – June 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the bearish US dollar, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward trend and remains under pressure around the $2,328 level and hitting an intraday low of $2,335. However, the decline can be attributed to the upbeat market sentiment, which undermined safe-haven assets like Gold. On the flip side, the US dollar losing its traction on the back of the Fed's mixed stance on interest rate cuts. This was seen as a key factor that helped limit deeper losses for the Gold price.
Weaker US Economic Data & Bearish US dollar Impact on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has faild to stop its bearish rally and still flashing red due to weaker US retail sales and easing inflation data. This has increased market expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and contributed to the declines in the US dollar. Despite the Fed's more hawkish stance, indicating only one rate hike this year, investors are betting on two hikes in 2024. The softer economic data, including disappointing retail sales and declining inflation, suggest a slowing economy, strengthening the case for the Fed to lower borrowing costs sooner than anticipated.
On the data front, the Commerce Department released figures showing a modest 0.1% increase in US Retail Sales for May, slightly lower than the anticipated 0.2% growth. This subdued report suggests consumer fatigue and a deceleration in economic momentum, further supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve could move to reduce interest rates earlier than previously forecasted.
Therefore, the weaker US retail sales and easing inflation data are increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts, pressuring the US dollar and helping the Gold price to limit its deeper losses.
Positive Market Sentiment & Its impact on Gold Prices
On the other hand, the global market sentiment has been gaining momentum and remain positive as the S&P 500 opened higher around 5,487.03, hitting an intra-day high of 5,490.38. This is due to optimism fueled by strong performances in the technology sector, particularly with Nvidia surpassing Microsoft to become the world's most valuable company.
Therefore, the positive global market sentiment driven by hopes for interest rate cuts and strong gains in the S&P 500 had a negative impact on the safe-haven appeal of Gold as risk-on sentiment typically reduce demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, causing its price to decline.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2331.94, up 0.03%, as it navigates a range-bound environment. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivot point at $2342.00, crucial for assessing the next price movement. Immediate resistance is at $2339.37, followed by $2353.95 and $2369.24. These levels are critical for any bullish advance.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $2308.16, with further support at $2297.24 and $2287.04. These levels are significant to prevent deeper declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59, indicating moderate momentum without overbought conditions, suggesting room for further movement.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2320.59 provides substantial support, reinforcing the current price level. The overall outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish above the $2342.00 pivot point.
A break above this level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting the higher resistance levels. Conversely, a drop below immediate support at $2308.16 might trigger further selling pressure.
The strategic entry point is set to buy above $2326, with a take profit target at $2342 and a stop loss at $2318. This setup aims to capitalize on potential upward movements while managing downside risks.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – June 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around the $0.6672 level, hitting an intraday high of $0.6676. The robust performance was mainly driven by a combination of factors, including concerns over the US economic recovery exacerbated by weaker-than-expected economic data such as the latest US Retail Sales figures. This has prompted market participants to revise down their expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thereby weakening the USD.
At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% for the fifth straight meeting, maintaining a confident stance. This decision surprised some analysts who expected a more cautious approach due to global economic uncertainties. The RBA's focus on monitoring inflation closely and its decision not to lower rates soon have boosted investor confidence in the AUD, supporting its recent upward trend.
Impact of Hawkish Messages from the RBA on AUD/USD
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% in its June meeting, extending the longest period without change since 2022. This decision has postponed expectations for rate cuts, bolstering the Australian dollar. The RBA highlighted economic uncertainty and challenges in achieving target inflation levels, signaling a cautious stance. It emphasized vigilance against potential inflationary pressures, indicating a prolonged wait for stable inflation.
Thus, the RBA's hawkish hold suggests a conservative approach amidst economic uncertainties, influencing market expectations towards a potential easing cycle starting in 2025.
Therefore, this sentiment has boosted demand for the Australian Dollar, pushing the AUD/USD pair higher as traders recalibrate their expectations for future interest rate differentials between Australia and the United States.
Weaker-than-Expected US Retail Sales Data and its Impact on AUD/USD
On the US front, the recent release of weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data has added further support to the AUD/USD pair's upward momentum. The Commerce Department reported a modest 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise. This disappointing economic indicator has raised concerns about the strength of consumer spending, a crucial driver of US economic growth.
Market participants interpreted the poor Retail Sales figures as a potential signal for softer economic activity in the US, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy. However ,the comments from Federal Reserve officials, including hints at possible rate cuts later in the year, have further dampened the USD's appeal, contributing to its depreciation against the AUD.
AUD/USD - Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.66704, up 0.23%, as it navigates within a consolidation phase on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point is set at $0.6697, which is crucial for determining the next price movement.
Immediate resistance levels are identified at $0.6705, followed by $0.6729 and $0.6754. These resistance levels are key hurdles that need to be surpassed for a sustained bullish momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.6640, with further support at $0.6620 and $0.6586. These support levels are essential in preventing deeper declines and will be closely monitored by market participants.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66, indicating that the pair is nearing overbought conditions, which could signal a potential reversal or consolidation in the near term. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6623, providing a significant support level and reinforcing the bullish outlook.
The overall outlook for AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish above the $0.6697 pivot point. A break above this level could trigger further buying interest, targeting the higher resistance levels mentioned.
Conversely, a drop below the immediate support at $0.6640 could lead to increased selling pressure and test lower support levels.
The recommended entry point is to buy above $0.66616, with a take profit target at $0.66965 and a stop loss at $0.66398.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD is presently trading at $1.07198, with market sentiment leaning towards optimism for potential rate cuts as the new trading week begins. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' cautionary statements hinting that rate cuts might not proceed as quickly as investors hope, the focus remains on the upcoming U.S. economic data for clearer directional cues.
U.S. Retail Sales to Shape Market Sentiment
Attention is set on Tuesday's U.S. Retail Sales report, where an increase of 0.3% month-over-month in May is expected, following a flat performance in April. This data point is particularly significant as it may influence Fed policy decisions moving forward. Core Retail Sales, excluding automobiles, are also projected to show a consistent rise of 0.2%.
Fed Officials Voice Cautious Outlook
Throughout the week, several Fed officials are slated to speak, with their insights eagerly anticipated by the markets. Recent inflation data suggests a quicker-than-expected easing, yet the Fed has expressed hesitation about hastening rate adjustments.
The necessity for more comprehensive data before altering monetary policy has been emphasized, reflecting a cautious approach towards economic recovery.
Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Speeches
As traders await the U.S. retail sales figures and monitor speeches from various Fed officials, the Dollar Index shows modest gains, trading up by 0.2% at 105.125. However, it remains below the recent 1 1/2-month high of 105.80.
This week's economic calendar also includes the release of U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate, expected to provide further insights into the economic landscape and potential shifts in Fed policy.
Key Economic Releases:
This week is pivotal for the EUR/USD pair as it navigates through critical economic releases and central bank communications. These events are likely to dictate short-term market dynamics and potentially set the tone for the currency pair's movements in the upcoming sessions.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.07198. The pivot point at $1.07255 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07387, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.07577 and $1.07734. These levels need to be breached for a potential bullish reversal. On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.07000. If this level is broken, the next support levels are at $1.06738 and $1.06499.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.07734, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07706, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.30, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum. This implies a potential for further downside if bearish pressure continues.
The current price action indicates that a break above the immediate resistance at $1.07387 could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.07255 may lead to further downside pressure.
Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $1.07255 is advisable with a take profit target at $1.06738 and a stop loss at $1.07577.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – June 17, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – June 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) experienced some dip-buying during the European session on Tuesday, reversing part of the previous day's modest losses. The incoming US macroeconomic data indicated that inflationary pressures are subsiding, maintaining hopes for the first Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and providing some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
However, Gold remains confined within a week-long range below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling caution for bullish traders.
US Dollar and Treasury Yields Influence
Last week, the Fed adopted a more hawkish stance, with policymakers favoring only one interest rate cut this year. This hawkish outlook supports elevated US Treasury bond yields, reviving demand for the US Dollar (USD) and limiting significant appreciation in Gold prices.
Additionally, a generally positive risk sentiment might cap the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. Strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the recent pullback from the all-time peak has concluded.
Impact of US Dollar Dip-Buying
On Tuesday, some US Dollar dip-buying emerged, acting as a headwind for Gold prices, though any meaningful slide remains elusive amid expectations of two Fed rate cuts in 2024.
The Fed's projection of a single interest rate cut this year, compared to three in March, helped US bond yields recover part of last week's losses and allowed the USD to regain positive traction.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker noted that maintaining rates longer will help reduce inflation, adding further pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.
Key Economic Data and Fed Speeches
Data released on Friday showed that US import prices fell for the first time in five months in May, along with weaker US consumer and producer prices, indicating subsiding inflation. This keeps hopes alive for the first Fed rate cut in September, followed by another in December.
Investors are now focused on Tuesday's US economic docket, which includes Retail Sales and Industrial Production data, for short-term trading opportunities during the early North American session.
Additionally, speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will play a crucial role in influencing USD demand, which, along with broader risk sentiment, should impact Gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,312.25, with bearish momentum observed on the 2-hour chart. The symmetrical triangle pattern forming suggests potential breakout volatility. The pivot point at $2,319.43 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance levels are seen at $2,325.03, $2,332.00, and $2,339.37. To confirm a bullish reversal, these resistance levels need to be breached. On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,309.55, with further support levels at $2,300.00 and $2,297.24. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.71, indicating bearish sentiment but not yet in oversold territory.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,319.43 is currently acting as a resistance level. The price needs to break above this EMA to signal a potential shift to bullish momentum. The 200-day EMA at $2,331.28 also serves as a significant resistance point that the price needs to surpass to confirm a stronger bullish trend. The current price action suggests that a break above the immediate resistance could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $2,319.43 may lead to further downside pressure. Monitoring these key levels and EMA crossovers will be essential for short-term trading strategies.
The Fibonacci retracement levels further highlight key areas of interest. A break above the pivot point of $2,319.43 could indicate a bullish move, while a drop below $2,309.55 may suggest further downside pressure. Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $2,320 is advisable with a take profit target at $2,300 and a stop loss at $2,332.
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- GBP/USD Price Analysis – June 17, 2024
GBP/USD Price Analysis – June 18, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at $1.26825, exhibiting bearish momentum as observed on the 4-hour chart. Despite the broader market sentiment showing some recovery at the beginning of the week, investors remain cautiously optimistic, eyeing a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September as U.S. economic indicators begin to show signs of softening.
Anticipation for U.S. Economic Indicators
This week's focal point will be the release of U.S. Retail Sales data on Tuesday. Analysts expect a modest uptick in May's figures, with Retail Sales projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month, recovering from a previous flat growth rate.
Similarly, Core Retail Sales are anticipated to remain steady at 0.2%. Additionally, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, due for release on Friday, are predicted to show a slight decrease, reflecting a potential slowdown in manufacturing sector expansion.
Federal Reserve's Prudent Approach
Federal Reserve officials have been cautiously articulating their views throughout the week, underscoring that despite the faster cooling of recent inflation figures, the decision to cut rates prematurely remains unwarranted.
They stress the importance of additional economic data to support any rate adjustments, suggesting a very measured approach to future monetary policy.
UK Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
On the UK front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is expected on Wednesday, with predictions pointing to a slight increase to 0.4% month-over-month for May, up from April's 0.3%. Concurrently, the Bank of England (BoE) is poised to decide on interest rates, with the consensus leaning towards maintaining the current rate of 5.25%.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is projected to maintain a seven-to-two vote favoring unchanged rates, mirroring their previous stance.
GBP/USD - Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.26825, showing bearish momentum on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $1.27100 is a crucial level for determining the next move. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.27457, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.27645 and $1.28075. To confirm a bullish reversal, these resistance levels need to be breached. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.26572, with further support levels at $1.26445 and $1.26132. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.68, indicating bearish sentiment but not yet in oversold territory.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.27412 is currently acting as a resistance level. The price needs to break above this EMA to signal a potential shift to bullish momentum. The current price action suggests that a break above the immediate resistance could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.27100 may lead to further downside pressure. Monitoring these key levels and EMA crossovers will be essential for short-term trading strategies.
The 200-day EMA at $1.27412 also serves as a significant resistance point that the price needs to surpass to confirm a stronger bullish trend. Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $1.27100 is advisable with a take profit target at $1.26445 and a stop loss at $1.27457.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 17, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – June 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices surged on Friday, reaching $2,333 per ounce, as easing US inflation fueled hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. This positive sentiment, coupled with risk aversion stemming from European political uncertainty, boosted the appeal of the safe-haven asset.
US Economic Data and Fed Outlook:
US consumer sentiment declined in June, but inflation expectations remain above the Fed's 2% target. Despite this, markets are pricing in 39 basis points of easing by December, suggesting that the Fed may cut rates more than once.
Dollar Index and Geopolitical Factors:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 105.53, capping gold's gains. However, geopolitical factors, such as China's pause on its bullion buying spree, could impact gold's future trajectory.
Upcoming Events:
Investors will closely watch upcoming G7 meetings and the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday for further clues on the economic outlook and potential impact on gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis
Gold prices have rebounded from recent lows, surging above the $2,330 mark on Monday. The 4-hour chart reveals a bullish momentum, with the precious metal trading above its pivot point at $2,342.00.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 56 indicates a strengthening positive sentiment in the market. Moreover, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) provides near-term support at $2,326.93, further bolstering the bullish outlook.
Traders should watch key resistance levels at $2,342.55, $2,357.84, and $2,370.11. A decisive break above these levels could trigger further buying interest and propel gold towards higher targets.
However, should the upward momentum wane, immediate support lies at $2,308.16, followed by $2,295.93 and $2,287.04. A break below these levels might signal a temporary setback for the bullish trend.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair slipped to 1.0670 on Friday before recovering to 1.0700, as political tensions in Europe and disappointing US economic data fueled uncertainty. The recent shift towards right-wing parties in European elections, coupled with a snap election in France, has raised concerns about the region's stability and weighed on the euro.
US Economic Data Disappoints:
In the US, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low of 65.6 in June, missing expectations of 72.0. Additionally, 5-year inflation expectations rose to 3.1%, indicating persistent price pressures and raising doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to tame inflation.
Diverging Fed and Market Expectations:
The Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more hawkish stance than the market anticipated, with only one rate cut projected for 2024. However, rate markets continue to price in a September rate cut, highlighting a disconnect between the Fed's outlook and market sentiment.
Upcoming Events:
Investors will closely monitor the upcoming G7 meetings and the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday for further insights into the global economic landscape and its potential impact on the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is struggling to maintain upward momentum, trading slightly below the 1.07 mark. The 4-hour chart reveals the pair is hovering just beneath its pivot point at $1.0726, signaling potential bearish pressure.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0802 further reinforces this bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34 indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce in the near term.
However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish. Key resistance levels to watch include $1.0771, $1.0808, and $1.0847. A break above these levels could negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential reversal.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0674, followed by $1.0650 and $1.0613.
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