Daily Price Outlook

During early European trading on Thursday, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum, remaining strongly above the 0.6400 level. However, this upward trend was fueled by the US Federal Reserve's (FOMC) decision to maintain a stable course, combined with a mix of reports concerning the US economy. This exerted downward pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the losses in the AUD/USD pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY) faced some selling pressure around 106.67, following a retreat from its weekly high of 107.11. Moreover, yields on US Treasury bonds experienced a minor decrease, with the 10-year yield hovering at 4.73%. This decline in yields may have played a role in the weakening of the US dollar.

U.S. Economic Update: FOMC Holds Rates, Mixed Data on Job Market and Manufacturing Sector

It is important to mention that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose to maintain unchanged interest rates and uphold a cautious stance on the economy. The FOMC believes that tighter financial conditions could have an impact on the labor market and overall economic activity.

They also noted that recent increases in long-term bond rates have lessened the need for further monetary policy tightening. Currently, the market is only assigning a 22% probability of a rate hike in December, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.

In terms of economic data, the ADP Private Sector Payrolls report for October revealed an increase of 113,000 jobs, which fell short of the anticipated 150,000. On a positive note, the JOLTS job openings data unexpectedly rose to 9.553 million, indicating an increase in job opportunities. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October dipped to 46.7, missing the expected value of 49, and marking the lowest reading since July.

Australian Economic Outlook: RBA Rate Hike Expected with IMF Support

Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its decision at the upcoming November meeting. There is an anticipation in the market that the central bank may raise the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) due to the increasing inflation.

Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently assessed the Australian economy and found it to be robust. They noted that inflation is staying relatively high and suggested that the RBA needs to implement more policy measures to control it. In simpler terms, they believe the RBA should continue tightening policies to keep the economy on track.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar, colloquially known as the "Aussie," has displayed intriguing movements against its American counterpart in recent days. As of the last measurement, the AUD/USD pair stands at 0.64251. A scrutiny of its 24-hour movement paints a picture of mild volatility, with the currency pair navigating the intricate labyrinth of global macroeconomic forces and central bank decisions.

Analyzing the 4-hour chart lends a deeper insight into the currency's short-term price trajectory. The pivot point for the currency pair is currently situated at 0.63824. On the bullish front, traders should keep an eye on the immediate resistance level of 0.64411, followed by the subsequent resistances at 0.64729 and the more ambitious 0.65109. Conversely, on the bearish spectrum, the immediate support is discerned at 0.63400, with subsequent floors established at 0.62889.

The technical indicators weave an intricate tale. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum oscillator, stands at 54.65. Traditionally, an RSI reading above 70 is perceived as overbought territory, while anything below 30 suggests oversold conditions. Given that the current RSI value is just above the neutral 50 threshold, the sentiment leans slightly bullish for the AUD/USD pair. Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at 0.63547. With the price currently situated above this level, it suggests a short-term bullish trend.

The chart has manifested what seems to be an ascending channel pattern. This pattern typically points to a bullish sentiment, and in this context, indicates the AUD/USD pair's consistent higher lows and higher highs.

In summation, the short-term technical landscape for the AUD/USD is cautiously bullish. Given the present technical setup and the currency's positioning above the 50 EMA, there's a possibility for the AUD/USD to test the immediate resistance of 0.64411 soon. As always, forex traders are advised to stay vigilant and monitor global economic cues that could influence currency movements.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trajectory on Thursday, driven by the decrease in US bond yields and the weakening of the US dollar. However, these developments were fueled by the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve might pause its interest rate hikes, consequently bolstering the demand for gold. Furthermore, this positive movement was further bolstered by geopolitical tensions and apprehensions regarding China's economic situation.

Gold Market Trends in Light of Geopolitical Conflicts and Economic Challenges

Furthermore, the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and economic challenges in China are expected to further bolster the value of safe-haven gold. However, the generally positive sentiment in the risk markets is working against gold but it has managed to maintain its position above a one-week low, hovering around the $1,970-1,969 range that it reached the previous day.

The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Impact on Gold and Financial Markets

In addition to this, the Federal Reserve has chosen to maintain unchanged interest rates for the second consecutive time. They have indicated that current financial conditions may already be sufficiently tight to manage inflation. Consequently, the market is now expecting rate cuts to commence in June 2024, which has led to a further decline in US Treasury bond yields and a weakening of the US Dollar.

The yield on the two-year US government bonds has reached its lowest level since September 8, while the 10-year Treasury yield has stepped back from the 5% threshold. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has upgraded its outlook on economic activity, acknowledging the unexpected resilience of the US economy, all the while keeping the possibility of another rate hike on the table.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's choice to maintain unchanged interest rates and foresee rate cuts in 2024 has resulted in reduced US Treasury bond yields, a weakening of the US Dollar, and a boost in support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Developments in the Israel-Hamas Conflict and Market Focus on Upcoming US NFP Report

Furthermore, Gaza's largest refugee camp has experienced powerful explosions, which the Israeli military claims killed a Hamas commander connected to the October 7 attacks. In response, Bolivia has severed its diplomatic ties with Israel due to civilian casualties resulting from what it perceives as aggressive and disproportionate military actions in Gaza. Israel's Prime Minister has rejected calls for a ceasefire, stating that they would amount to surrendering to terrorism.

Moving on, the market's attention now turns to the upcoming US monthly employment report (NFP) scheduled for Friday, which is expected to provide significant guidance for the precious metal.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The fervor surrounding precious metals, especially gold, has been palpable in recent months. The Gold Spot's current price hovers at $1,986.14, a modest uptick observed over the past 24 hours. In the grand tableau of traded assets, Gold's market capitalization remains robust, ensuring its steadfast position among the elite. Delving deeper into its supply data provides an insight into the nuances of market dynamics that influence this asset.

Examining the 4-hour chart offers a granular view of Gold's recent price actions. Key price levels to monitor closely in the coming days include a pivot point at $1,975.85. The immediate resistance stands at $1,991.36, with subsequent resistances at $2,010.36 and $2,031.29, respectively. On the flip side, if bears take control, the immediate support is pinned at $1,963.17, followed by stronger supports at $1,947.14 and a tentative one around $1,930.00.

The narrative of technical indicators paints an intricate picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) clocks in at 49.13. Traditionally, an RSI above 70 signals overbought conditions, and anything below 30 is indicative of an oversold territory. Our current value, hovering just below the 50-mark, subtly hints at a bearish sentiment. However, the proximity to the midline warrants caution. Another pivotal indicator, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), stands at $1,978.343. The Gold price positioned above this mark signifies a short-term bullish inclination.

An eagle-eyed observation reveals an ascending channel pattern on the chart. This suggests that the Gold price has been primarily moving within this upward trajectory. The recent brush with the channel's lower boundary and the subsequent resilience hints at a potential bullish drive in the offing.

In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold, at least in the short term, leans bullish. Given the present momentum coupled with corroborative technical indicators, expectations are rife for Gold to challenge the resistance at $2,010.36 soon. Should it breach this, the $2,031.29 mark might be the next focal point. As always, traders should remain on their toes, keeping an ear to the ground for any macroeconomic or geopolitical developments that could jolt the gold markets.

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Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold (XAU/USD) persists in its decline, marking the third successive day of a downtrend on Wednesday. As the European trading session commences, the precious metal exhibits a bearish posture, hovering around the weekly low in the vicinity of the $1,978 mark. The de-escalation of tensions over the Israel-Hamas conflict, along with the market's anticipation of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), are key factors exerting downward pressure on gold, which does not yield any interest.

Despite the downward trend, the decline in gold prices is expected to have a floor. The market's attention is keenly set on the outcome of the much-awaited two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, which is due to be announced in the later part of the US session. Additionally, the concerns regarding China's fragile economic recovery as the fourth quarter commences might lend some support to the safe-haven metal, potentially curbing steeper drops.

Factors Propelling the US Dollar and Their Effect on Gold Prices

Currently, the US dollar is enjoying a positive sentiment, bolstered by the market's anticipation of a potentially hawkish outcome from the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates at a 22-year peak for the second consecutive period, later in the US session.

Given the robust performance of the US economy and ongoing inflation, the central bank is expected to continue its hawkish stance, leaving the door open for additional interest rate hikes. The yield on the crucial 10-year US government bond hovers near the 5% threshold, a high not witnessed in 16 years since October. This strength in bond yields is further fortifying the US dollar, which in turn, is applying downward pressure on gold prices.

Recent Developments and Their Impact on the Gold Market

Furthermore, a recent Caixin-sponsored survey revealed a contraction in China's manufacturing sector business activity in October, the first decline in three months. This suggests that China's stimulus measures have had limited impact on the economic recovery, which might provide some support to the XAU/USD.

Although gold recorded its most substantial monthly gain since November 2022, it commenced the new month on a softer note, influenced by a diminished demand for safe-haven assets. The market's concerns about the Israel-Hamas conflict have abated, as no other Arab nations have engaged in the conflict, and there is an indication from Hamas about the intention to release foreign hostages in the forthcoming days.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold has experienced a minor pullback in its recent rally, currently trading at $1,977.935, a slight decline of 0.31% within the last 24 hours. The asset's performance on the 4-hour chart reveals a critical juncture, with the price teetering near the pivot point of $1,990.

Key technical levels are in focus, with immediate resistance spotted at $2,026. A breach above this level could see gold target subsequent resistances at $2,046 and $2,082. Conversely, immediate support lies at $1,970, below which further supports are seen at $1,934 and $1,914.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a neutral stance with a reading of 57, indicative of neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but slightly leaning towards bullish sentiment. However, with the RSI drifting below the 60 mark, it warrants cautious optimism among bulls.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,977 offers a glimmer of bullishness, with the current price hovering just above this level, suggesting a short-term upward trend.

A notable development is the upward channel breakout observed in the chart patterns, hinting at potential bullish momentum. However, the recent price action below the pivot point and the RSI's tepid posture offer a mixed sentiment.

In conclusion, gold presents a nuanced technical outlook. While the asset shows bearishness below the $1,980 threshold, a decisive move above this level could alter the short-term trajectory. Investors should brace for a potential test of the immediate resistance at $2,026 in the coming days, with a close eye on the RSI and the 50 EMA for further trend confirmation.

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Daily Price Outlook

In the early hours of the European trading session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair sustained its decline, presently hovering around 1.2139, a slight drop of 0.11% for the day. Market participants are keeping a watchful eye on two pivotal events this week: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday. These gatherings are expected to inject volatility into the market.

It is anticipated that the FOMC will maintain interest rates while adopting a hawkish tone. Conversely, the BoE is likely to keep rates stable amidst looming recession fears in the UK. Both events are garnering attention in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data release.

The two-day FOMC policy meeting commences on Wednesday, with prevailing market sentiment predicting that interest rates will remain unchanged in November. The market will pay close attention to the press conference headed by FOMC Chair Powell for any fresh insights. A hawkish stance during the conference could bolster the US Dollar, potentially exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

In addition, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to hold interest rates at 5.25% during its Thursday meeting, primarily due to concerns about a potential economic slump in the UK. Post-meeting, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will provide updates on the UK's economic outlook and monetary policy direction.

At the same time, the GBP/USD pair faces headwinds from weaker UK economic data and persistent inflation. Moreover, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might drive investors towards safe-haven assets, favoring the US Dollar and impacting the GBP/USD pair.

In the coming week, investors will be vigilant about key economic indicators leading up to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, including the US ADP employment report, JOLTS Job Openings, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Attention will shift to the BoE's rate decision and Governor Bailey's address on Thursday. The week concludes with the release of vital US employment figures for October, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings, on Friday.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair, often viewed as a barometer of transatlantic economic health, has exhibited mild bearish behavior on November 1, trading at 1.2142, a slight decrease of 0.05%. This subtle dip might seem inconsequential at a glance, but in the highly leveraged world of forex trading, even minor shifts can portend significant market moves. Analyzing the four-hour chart provides a clearer picture of the pair's technical posture.

At the heart of this analysis is the pivot point, situated at 1.2173, serving as a fulcrum for potential price swings. Should the bulls gain the upper hand, immediate resistance looms at 1.2315, with further hurdles at 1.2471 and 1.2613. On the flip side, if bearish sentiment solidifies, the pair may seek refuge at immediate support levels of 1.2008, with additional fallback positions at 1.1875 and 1.1710.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, registers a value of 48, hovering just below the neutral midpoint of 50. This suggests a bearish tilt in market sentiment, albeit not strong enough to warrant immediate alarm for oversold conditions. Complementing the RSI, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.2149, a whisker above the current price, hinting at a nascent bearish trend.

Chart patterns have yet to articulate a clear narrative for the GBP/USD pair. However, the constellation of technical indicators and price levels paints a picture of cautious bearishness, contingent on the pair's behavior around the $1.2149 threshold. Should the pair maintain its stance below this critical level, the bearish outlook is expected to solidify.

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Daily Price Outlook

Despite the sluggish performance of the US dollar, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to halt its losing streak and remained under pressure, trading around the 1.0558 level, reflecting a 0.17% loss for the day. However, the ongoing decline in this currency pair can be attributed to recent official data published by Eurostat, indicating a sharp deceleration in the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) won't further increase interest rates have significantly influenced the downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Moreover, concerns about looming recession risks continue to weaken the shared currency.

Eurozone Consumer Price Growth Slows, ECB Rate Hike Expectations Diminish

According to the latest Eurostat data released on Tuesday, the Eurozone's consumer price growth, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), slowed significantly from 4.3% to 2.9% annually in October. This deceleration represents the lowest increase in prices since July 2021, further solidifying market beliefs that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to raise interest rates. Moreover, concerns about a potential recession may continue to exert pressure on the shared currency, potentially creating hurdles for the EUR/USD pair.

US Dollar Pauses as FOMC Meeting Looms

On the flip side, the US Dollar has paused its robust upward movement, as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach pending the outcome of the pivotal FOMC meeting before making new market moves. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to maintain current interest rates for the second time, potentially leaving open the possibility for a hike later this year.

Therefore, the expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Fed are bolstering higher US bond yields, consequently lending strength to the dollar contributes to the EUR/USD pair losses.

Key Events Ahead for Traders and the EUR/USD Pair

Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring key events such as the ADP private-sector employment report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and JOLTS Job Openings data in the US. These factors will influence the demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The pivot point, a critical juncture in technical analysis, is pegged at 1.0595. Should bullish sentiment prevail, immediate resistance lies at 1.0667, followed by subsequent barricades at 1.0768 and 1.0840. Conversely, if bearish undercurrents dominate, the currency pair might seek solace at immediate support levels of 1.0492, with further cushions at 1.0422 and 1.0321.

Delving deeper into technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46. This sub-50 reading indicates a bearish sentiment among traders, albeit not entrenched deeply into oversold territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) further corroborates this stance, with the pair trading slightly below the EMA value of 1.0582, suggesting a short-term bearish trend.

Chart patterns are yet to pronounce a definitive direction, with the currency pair's trajectory poised delicately at crucial junctures. However, the overall trend tilts towards the bearish side, contingent on the pair's movements relative to the 1.0582 mark. Short-term forecasts remain cautious, with a likelihood of the EUR/USD pair testing key resistance and support levels in the days ahead.

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Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) has experienced a second consecutive day of decline, staying below the $2,000 mark. This drop is primarily associated with speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) potential decision to raise interest rates later this year to manage inflation and bring it back to the targeted 2%. The Fed's hints at possible rate hikes have caused a rise in yields on US Treasury bonds. Typically, higher bond yields tend to attract more investors to the US Dollar (USD), leading to an increased demand for it. Consequently, this heightened demand for the dollar puts pressure on gold.

It's worth noting that investors are hesitant to make strong predictions and are waiting for cues from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decisions. The Fed is expected to maintain the current high interest rates during their two-day meeting from October 31 to November 1.

In the meantime, the US economy is strong, and inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, allowing them to stick with their current tough stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously cautioned that inflation is still too high, indicating that more rate hikes might happen if the economy continues to stay hotter than expected.

Factors Supporting Gold Price Amid Middle East and China Concerns

In addition to this, Israel's more cautious approach to its operations in Gaza has reduced concerns about a bigger crisis in the Middle East. This has made investors less eager to turn to the safe-haven of gold. However, it's important to note that there's still a risk of the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating further, and there's uncertainty about China's economic recovery. Hence, these factors are providing support to the XAU/USD.

Upcoming FOMC Meeting Adds Uncertainty for Traders

Looking ahead, traders might adopt a wait-and-see approach before making substantial decisions due to the scheduled two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starting this Tuesday. Nevertheless, the Fed is set to disclose its decision on Wednesday, and it is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. This would mark the highest level in 22 years.

Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's statements regarding its future interest rate policies, as this will significantly impact the value of the US dollar and potentially provide a new direction for gold. As a result, many investors are refraining from making significant moves until after this news is released.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold, trading at $1,992.705, saw a marginal decline of 0.18% in the last 24 hours. Despite fluctuations, its global demand and value in the precious metals realm remain steadfast.

Examining the technicals, the pivot point is at $1,990. Key resistance levels are set at $2,025, $2,045, and $2,082. Conversely, immediate support stands at $1,970, with further support at $1,934 and $1,914.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 54, hinting at a slightly bullish sentiment. It suggests a recent tilt towards buying. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) tells a cautionary tale. Its line, being below the signal line, implies potential bearish momentum ahead.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is noted at $1,974. Gold's price above this level denotes a short-term bullish trajectory, revealing active buyers in the market.

On the chart patterns front, a symmetrical triangle is observed. This indicates gold's ongoing consolidation. A breakout above this pattern signals bullish momentum, while a downward move could suggest a bearish shift.

To conclude, gold remains bullish above $2,040 but could swing bearish beneath. With current indicators and patterns, gold might challenge the $2,045 resistance soon. It's crucial for investors to monitor these key metrics closely.

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Daily Price Outlook

Despite the positive Australian Retail Sales data, the AUD/USD currency pair ended a three-day winning streak on Tuesday. However, this reversal can be attributed to the resurgence of the US Dollar, which is exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its policy decision on November 7. It is widely expected that Australia's central bank will increase interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting due to heightened inflation.

Australian Economic Indicators and Impact on AUD/USD Pair

It's worth noting that Australia's Retail Sales showed remarkable performance in September, with a notable increase of 0.9%. This figure surpassed market expectations of 0.3% and marked a substantial improvement compared to the previous month's 0.2% performance.

Looking at Australia's Producer Price Index (PPI), it showed a slight decrease, dropping to 3.8% yearly in the third quarter, compared to the previous quarter's 3.9%. However, on a quarterly basis, the PPI had a remarkable increase, reaching 1.8%, up from the earlier reading of 0.5%.

In the meantime, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter of 2023 reached 1.2%, surpassing both the 0.8% increase in the previous quarter and the market's expected 1.1% for the same period.

Thereby, the Reserve Bank of Australia expressed concerns about inflation due to supply disruptions. Governor Michele Bullock stated that if inflation remains higher than expected, the RBA will take suitable measures.

Hence, the positive retail sales and increased inflation in Australia might strengthen the Australian dollar (AUD), while concerns about inflation and reduced demand could potentially weaken the AUD/USD pair.

Global Economic Developments and Their Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly dropped to 49.5 from the previous expansion of 50.2 in July, missing the expected 50.2. The NBS Services PMI also fell to 50.6 in September, lower than the anticipated 51.8 and the earlier reading of 51.7.

There are reports indicating a possible meeting between US President Joe Biden and China's President Xi Jinping in November, following extensive diplomatic efforts aimed at repairing relations.

Meanwhile, US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (YoY) slightly decreased to 3.7% from 3.8%. However, the monthly index rose to 0.3%, meeting expectations and up from the previous 0.1%. The University of Michigan Consumer Index exceeded expectations in October, reaching 63.8 against an expected 63.0.

Hence, the negative economic data from China and the potential US-China meeting in November may put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD currency pair, as of October 31, is witnessing some turbulence, currently trading at 0.63438, a dip of 0.50% within the past 24 hours. In the intricate realm of forex, the asset's key price metrics provide a clearer understanding of its potential trajectory. Specifically, the pivot point for this pair stands firmly at $0.6334. Should the momentum lean bullish, the immediate resistance is seen at $0.6399, with further ceilings expected at $0.6465 and $0.6529. Conversely, if bears dominate, the immediate floor lies at $0.6270, with deeper supports at $0.6206 and $0.6140.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a popular momentum oscillator, rests at 49. This figure, just a notch below the neutral 50 threshold, hints at a mild bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), another revered momentum tracker, paints a somewhat concerning picture. The MACD line trails slightly below its signal line, signaling potential downward momentum on the horizon.

Not to be overlooked, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which smoothens price data to create a single flowing line, is currently valued at $0.6343. This is nearly identical to the asset's current price, suggesting a neutral stance in the short-term trend. As of now, no distinct chart pattern has emerged, leaving traders and analysts to rely primarily on the aforementioned indicators.

In wrapping up this technical analysis, the AUD/USD showcases a neutral to mildly bearish trend. However, optimism remains. If the currency pair can hold its ground above the crucial pivot of $0.63335, it might tilt the scales towards bullishness. In the days ahead, given the asset's current position amidst its resistance and support zones, it's plausible to anticipate the AUD/USD making a move to test the resistance level at $0.6399. As always, investors are advised to keep their eyes peeled on these instrumental levels and indicators to navigate

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Daily Price Outlook

The USD/CAD currency pair had difficulty sustaining its upward momentum, as it attracted new sellers following an intraday increase to the mid-1.3800s. Subsequently, it dipped to a fresh daily low in the first half of the European session. Nonetheless, the prices managed to remain above the psychological level of 1.3800 and seem poised to continue the three-week-long uptrend.

However, the bearish sentiment can be attributed to the slight uptick in Crude Oil prices, which is bolstering the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (Loonie). Additionally, the generally positive mood in the equity markets is driving the safe-haven US Dollar to a one-week low. Consequently, this is exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

Federal Reserve Expected to Maintain Interest Rates Amid Strong US Economy

It's important to note that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to announce its decision on Wednesday. They are likely to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, which is the highest it has reached in 22 years. This is due to the continued strength of the US economy and relatively persistent inflation. As a result, the Fed may keep the door open for one more rate increase in 2023. This more hawkish stance is anticipated to keep US Treasury bond yields elevated, consequently lending support to the US dollar and the USD/CAD currency pair.

Factors Influencing Crude Oil and USD/CAD Pair

Moreover, investors are worried about China's weakening economy, as it's the largest oil importer globally. This, coupled with concerns that the rising borrowing costs could reduce the demand for fuel, is preventing significant increases in Crude Oil prices. Additionally, last week, the Bank of Canada's Governor, Tiff Macklem, gave a signal that interest rates might not go up any further, which should help prevent significant drops in the USD/CAD pair.

As we look ahead, investors will be closely monitoring key US economic updates, specifically, the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index during the early North American session. Furthermore, the demand for the US dollar, which is influenced by bond yields and oil prices, is expected to exert an influence on the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD currency pair, as recorded on October 31, is exhibiting a hint of bullish sentiment. Currently trading at 1.38514, the pair has ascended by a modest 0.18% within the last 24 hours. On the technical front, the pivot point for this pair is delineated at $1.3805. Should the pair maintain its current bullish trajectory, traders should eye an immediate resistance at $1.3950, followed by subsequent resistances at $1.4024 and the more formidable $1.4168. However, if the pair retraces its steps, we might see it seek refuge at the immediate support of $1.3731, with additional cushions lying at $1.3583 and $1.3512.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key barometer of momentum, is positioned at 60, indicating a bullish sentiment. This is further underscored by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), wherein the MACD line marginally treads above its signal line, hinting at a potential upward momentum. Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.3776, which, being below the current trading price, advocates a short-term bullish outlook.

An upward channel has been identified on the chart, serving as a harbinger for potential bullish momentum. Such patterns generally indicate that buyers have more control and that the asset is likely to continue its upward trajectory, at least in the short term.

To sum up this technical dissection, the USD/CAD is demonstrating bullish tendencies, particularly when trading above the pivotal $1.3800 mark. Given its current stance amidst the intricate web of resistance and support points, as well as the prevailing upward channel, it would not be audacious to forecast that the USD/CAD might soon aim to challenge the immediate resistance set at $1.3950.

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Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair began the week with early losses in Asian trading on Monday. However, it managed to recover during the European session when an encouraging German GDP report was released, leading to a 0.2% increase, bringing it to 1.0565. In fact, the pair completely erased its losses following the release of this positive data.

This week is packed with economic data, and traders are closely monitoring the Eurozone GDP and inflation data. These reports are pivotal because they offer insights into what can be anticipated during the eagerly awaited Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

German Q3 2023 Economic Performance

According to the latest report from Destatis, the German economy experienced a minor setback in the third quarter of 2023. It contracted by 0.1% during this period, which was better than the anticipated 0.3% contraction. In the preceding quarter (Q2), there was no growth at all.

On an annual basis, the GDP rate declined by 0.3% in Q3, which was slightly worse than the previous reading of -0.2%, but it still outperformed the expectations of market experts who had predicted a 0.7% slowdown. Therefore, although there was a slowdown, it wasn't as severe as some had feared, offering a glimmer of optimism for the German economy.

Fed's Rate Decision and US Inflation Data

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain interest rates at their current levels at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently indicated that inflation remains relatively high, suggesting the possibility of further interest rate hikes before the year concludes. This potential scenario could lead to a stronger US Dollar, which might not bode well for the EUR/USD pair.

In recent data, the Core US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) indicated a 3.7% increase in September, a slight decrease from the 3.8% reported previously. On a monthly basis, it rose from 0.1% to 0.3%. Furthermore, the PCE Price Index for September stood at 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations. These figures offer valuable insights into the prevailing inflation situation in the United States, which the Fed is closely monitoring.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair, a cornerstone of the forex market, remains a major focus for global investors. As of October 30, the pair is priced at 1.05594, witnessing a marginal upward movement of 0.03% over the preceding 24 hours. While specific rankings shift, the sheer volume and liquidity of the EUR/USD position it as a frontrunner in the forex trading arena. The substantial market capitalization and vast supply, transacted in the millions and billions, further accentuate its significance in the global currency market landscape.

Digging into the technicals, the pivot point for the pair stands at 1.0578. On the resistance side, immediate levels are pegged at 1.0610, followed by 1.0645, and then 1.0682. Conversely, the support structures are found at 1.0524, 1.0491, and deeper at 1.0454. The RSI, a pivotal momentum oscillator, registers a value of 46. An RSI below 50 typically signals bearish sentiment among traders, and this current positioning hints at a cautious or bearish outlook. In the realm of MACD, the line, with a reading of 0.001, is in line with the signal, indicating a neutral stance, but any divergence here would be telling of momentum shifts. The 50 EMA for EUR/USD is currently at 1.0574. Given that the price is slightly below this level, this suggests a potential short-term bearish inclination.

While specific chart patterns are not detailed here, they play a pivotal role in shaping the narrative for the asset. Patterns like symmetrical triangles or channels can provide valuable insight into potential price breakouts or breakdowns.

In conclusion, the broader sentiment for EUR/USD appears to lean bearish, especially if it trades below the crucial 1.0578 mark. However, the currency pair's inherent volatility and susceptibility to macroeconomic events mean traders should exercise vigilance and continuously monitor geopolitical and economic developments that could influence its trajectory.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) price recently surpassed $2,000, marking its highest value since May 16, and it has achieved three consecutive weeks of gains. However, the US Dollar (USD) is gaining strength, primarily due to the increasing yields of US Treasury bonds, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening its policies. This dynamic is putting pressure on XAU/USD bulls (gold buyers), keeping them on the defensive side and preventing gold from breaching the $2,000 threshold.

On the positive side, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is offering some support to gold. This geopolitical tension is prompting people to seek safe-haven investments, such as gold, which could help prevent a significant price decline. So, while gold is facing challenges due to the strong US Dollar, it is also finding support from the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Moving on, traders may choose to be cautious and avoid making big bets on gold due to upcoming central bank events this week. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its policy decision on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) releasing its monetary policy update on Wednesday, and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday.

Investors will also be closely monitoring China's official PMIs to gain insights into the business climate in the world's second-largest economy. Furthermore, data such as the preliminary EuroZone GDP and CPI, along with the US monthly jobs report (NFP), are expected to exert a influence on the gold market.

Gold Price Drops Amidst Geopolitical Tensions and Strong US Economy

It's worth noting that the price of gold dipped below the $2,000 mark on Monday. Nonetheless, there is a mounting concern regarding the escalating tensions in the Middle East, which may prevent gold from undergoing a substantial decline. In northern Gaza, Palestinians have reported heavy air and artillery strikes as Israeli forces, supported by tanks, have initiated a ground assault in the besieged area.

On the economic front, the US Commerce Department has reported that consumer spending in September exceeded expectations, with inflation for the month also on the rise. Furthermore, a positive US GDP report revealed that the country's economy experienced its most robust growth in nearly two years during the third quarter. This strong showing by the US economy reinforces the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, maintaining the possibility of another interest rate hike before year-end. This stance keeps US Treasury bond yields elevated and continues to bolster the US Dollar, which poses a challenge for gold.

Traders are awaiting the outcome of a pivotal two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting to gather insights into potential future rate hikes before making any significant market moves.

Key Global Events Impacting Financial Markets This Week

Moreover, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are set to make significant policy announcements this week, potentially bringing about notable developments in the global financial markets. Investors will be closely monitoring the official Chinese PMIs, preliminary EuroZone inflation and economic growth figures, and the much-anticipated US jobs report (NFP) for guidance.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On October 30, the financial spotlight remains firmly on GOLD as its technical posture continues to be a focal point for traders globally. Currently, GOLD is priced at $2002.315, marking a modest decline of 0.23% over the last 24 hours.

Although its exact rank can vary among different financial metrics, there's no disputing GOLD's stature as a premier trading asset. Its market capitalization, reflecting its significance, extends into the billions, underscoring its weight in global financial markets. The supply data, too, paints a picture of abundance, with millions of ounces in active circulation.

Delving into key price levels, the asset finds its pivot point at $1994, with immediate resistance at $2012, followed by further resistances at $2032 and $2050. On the flip side, support levels are noted at $1980, $1964, and then $1947. The technical indicators are also telling. The RSI stands at 64, hovering above the 50 mark, signaling bullish sentiment.

The MACD, with its line at 1.064, has surpassed the signal line at 8.31, hinting at a potential upward push. Furthermore, the 50 EMA for GOLD sits at $1969, and with the current price above this mark, a short-term bullish trend is suggested. The charts reveal an upward channel pattern for GOLD, emphasizing its bullish momentum.

In conclusion, the overarching sentiment for GOLD leans bullish, particularly when it remains above the $1994 pivot point. If this momentum holds, the asset might soon be testing the $2012 resistance. However, it's always prudent for investors to stay attuned to global economic shifts that could sway GOLD's trajectory.

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