Daily Price Outlook

Despite concerns about China's economy and global tensions, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) continued its decline on Monday, reaching around $1,910. This marks its lowest point since July 7. However, the reason for this downward trend can be attributed to the bullish US dollar. The broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might soon tighten its rules. Thus, this shift is making the US dollar more appealing to investors. Hence, the appeal of gold diminishes as the dollar performs well. As a result, the price of Gold is currently experiencing a decline.

Geopolitical Factors Impacting XAU/USD Price

Apart from this, turning our attention to the global situation, worries are increasing due to recent circumstances in China and Russia. It is worth noting that the company called Country Garden has stopped trading bonds, while a part of the Zhongzhi Enterprise Group is facing difficulties in making payments. These issues are making China's debt problems even more serious.

Moreover, Russia's plan to fit new nuclear submarines with super-fast missiles, known as hypersonic missiles, and the ongoing tensions between the United States and China in terms of trade are adding to the anxious environment. All of this uncertainty is making people more careful about taking risks.

Therefore, the troubling reports coming in from China have left investors feeling uncertain. This uncertainty has led more people to seek shelter in the US dollar, considered a safer investment choice. Moreover, worries about geopolitical tensions involving Russia are causing a decrease in interest toward riskier investments. This combination of factors has caused the US Dollar steadily climb for four consecutive weeks.

Fed Policy Expectations and US Dollar's Impact on Gold

The broad-based US Dollar has reached its highest point in six weeks, driven by expectations of stricter policies from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The most recent figures for the US Producer Price Index (PPI) have further supported these expectations, showing a slightly larger increase in July than what was anticipated.

Despite a modest uptick in consumer prices, the challenge of reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target is still evident. This situation leaves room for the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates by another 0.25% later this year, which in turn pushes up yields on US Treasury bonds. As a result, the US Dollar has become stronger, leading to a decrease in the price of Gold when measured in US Dollars.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

Gold opened with a bearish trend today, falling below the $1,913.15 mark, which was further emphasized by the candlestick's closure over the last four hours beneath this threshold. This confirms the anticipated bearish momentum in both short-term and intraday contexts, setting sights on further declines potentially reaching $1,892.00 and further down to $1,873.50.

This downward trajectory remains robust, underscored by the negative influence of the EMA50. However, it's essential to note that if the gold price doesn't maintain its position below $1,913.15, we might witness recovery efforts targeting the $1,929.00 level before any renewed downturn. Today's projected trading spectrum ranges from a support level of $1,890.00 to a resistance at $1,925.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the recent positive news from Italy, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its bearish momentum and has dropped to 1.0925 level, the lowest level in a week. However, the reason for the its decline could be linked to the stronger US dollar, which gained strength due to risk-off market sentiment. The broad-based US dollar climbed to a five-week high as a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading stoking concerns that the Federal Reserve might persist in its series of interest rate hikes.

Factors Affecting EUR/USD: Italian Tax Announcement, Debt Concerns, and Global Tensions

It is worth noting that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's announcement of a one-time 40% tax on banks has reassured that there will not be further financial difficulties for the banking sector. This strategic move has been widely regarded as one of the key factors that helps the EUR/USD pair to limit its deeper losses. On the other side, worries about debt issues in China's market and potential recession struggles in the Eurozone are putting pressure on the EUR/USD value.

Furthermore, the mixed readings from Germany's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for July have played a major role in undermining the EUR/USD pair. Besides this, issues like China's Country Garden suspending bond trading and delayed payments from a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group are deepening China's debt problems. Meanwhile, the global context of Russia's missile-equipped submarines and the ongoing US-China trade tensions is promoting a risk-averse sentiment, further dampening the EUR/USD currency pair price.

EUR/USD Outlook Amid ECB Hints and Risk-Off Sentiment

Moreover, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have hinted at potential changes in their policies during recent public appearances. The ECB's monthly economic outlook underlines macro uncertainties, giving Euro bears some optimism. As a result, S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx Futures show slight declines, while US 10-year Treasury bond yields hover around 4.17%.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has successfully breached the 1.0955 mark, sealing the daily candlestick beneath it, thus strengthening the anticipation of an extended bearish trajectory in the intraday context, with a subsequent objective set at 1.0880.

The persistent influence of the double top formation is anticipated to exert additional downward pressure, potentially leading the pair to exceed the previously mentioned target, setting its sights on 1.0785 as the subsequent bearish milestone.

Given the adverse momentum steered by the EMA50, a continued bearish sentiment is forecasted in ensuing sessions. It's pivotal to note that for this bearish momentum to persist, the pair should remain below 1.1030.

Today's trading spectrum is delineated with a support at 1.0840 and resistance positioned at 1.1000.

A bullish sentiment will prevail above 1.09249, whereas a stance below this figure leans towards bearishness.

Daily Price Outlook

The global markets sentiment prologned its upward trend and remained well positive on Friday as traders are confident that interest rates won't go up due to lower inflation signs. Thereby, the S&P500 Futures, which predict how well the US stock market will do, have gone up by about 0.20% to around 4,490.

This situation arises from the relatively underwhelming recent inflation data in the United States. As a result, the Federal Reserve, responsible for decisions regarding the country's monetary policy, appears to be adopting a more relaxed stance concerning price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Philip Lowe, who leads Australia's central bank, supports thier choice to maintain a stable monetary policy stance to avoid job losses. Thus, the markets are positive as traders feel better about rates and prices.

In addition, recent polls by Reuters show that both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to keep interest rates unchanged in their upcoming meetings. This decision fosters optimism among traders and plays a role in bolstering the positive momentum in market sentiment.

Global Concerns Impacting Market Sentiment

On the flip side, there is growing concern regarding escalating tensions between Western nations and China. The United States initiated this by implementing regulations pertaining to investments in Chinese technology companies, a move that appears to be influencing the contemplation of similar actions by the United Kingdom and Europe. These developments are inducing a sense of unease among the populace.

Moreover, there's news about a major Chinese real estate company called Country Garden facing financial troubles and needing to reorganize its debt. This, along with worries about upcoming data from the US, is adding to the concerns. Chinese leaders are working hard to protect the value of their currency, the Yuan. This effort is making people more confident that China can manage its economic challenges. As a result, this positive feeling is supporting the recent cautious optimism in the region.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

The primary stock market index is the S&P 500, currently positioned at 4,671.1 points. A thorough analysis of the four-hour timeframe reveals a noteworthy technical perspective for the SPX. This perspective gains significance following its successful breach of the crucial 4,500 level.

In terms of downside potential, should the S&P 500 maintain its position below 4,757.94, there is the possibility of a decline towards the 4,437 level. Examining the longer timeframe, the S&P 500 has already achieved approximately 58.7% of its retracement from the 4,474 level. The presence of the 50-day exponential moving average provides a suggestive context for the continuation of the ongoing downtrend.

Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators offer supportive readings, enhancing the probability of sustained downward momentum. Presently, breaking below 4,450 could potentially provide an opportunity to initiate a short position on the S&P 500, with a target set at 4,437 or even lower to the 4,400 level.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) succeeded to stop its previous losing streak and gained some traction around $1,940 level. This happened mainly because of concerns about higher interest rates and geopolitical issues related to China.

Moreover, the weaker US dollar played a major role in boosting the price of gold. The broad-based US dollar has been struggling to strengthen due to lower consumer inflation in the US, which caused a slight decrease from its recent peak.

Thus, the declines in the US dollar have actually given a boost to the value of gold. It is like when the dollar takes a bit of a breather, gold gets a chance to shine more. Although, the reason for the US dollar's weakness is not clear, but experts expect this decline to be limited or short-lived because many believe that the Federal Reserve will stick to its plan of raising interest rates.

US Consumer Prices Inch Up, Core Inflation Eases

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the cost of living in the US, called the Consumer Price Index (CPI), went up less than expected, from 3% to 3.2% in July compared to a year ago.

Meanwhile, the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, experienced a modest decrease from 4.8% to 4.7%. This suggests that the pace of price hikes for most goods and services has eased somewhat.

Although the pace of price increases has slowed down somewhat, prices still remain higher than the Federal Reserve's target of around 2%. To help with this, they might decide to change how much it costs to borrow money. They can do this by adjusting interest rates. Since prices are still higher than they want, they might decide to make some money changes later this year.

Thereby, the inreasing chances of the Fed making rules stricter are making US Treasury bond profits go up. This can help prevent the US Dollar from declining excessively and keep Gold from surging too rapidly in value. Moreover, if the outlook for US stocks remains positive, it can stop people from turning to Gold as a safe investment option.

Upcoming US Data Impact on Dollar and Gold

Looking forward, market observers are focusing on upcoming US data, including figures on producer prices, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations. These data have the potential to influence the trajectory of both the US Dollar and Gold. Besides, developments in bond yields and the overall market sentiment will contribute to shaping the landscape.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The precious metal gold is currently trading with a bearish stance after breaching the critical support level at $1920. The formation of a potential double bottom pattern on the hourly timeframe suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend.

Presently, a temporary support seems to be forming around the $1915 level, which holds the potential to further drive selling pressure toward the $1900 level.

Additionally, observing the four-hour timeframe, the 50-day moving average indicates a probable resistance forming around the $1920 level. If gold manages to surpass this level, it may expose the price to the range of $1930 to $1940, where $1930 currently serves as resistance.

It's worth noting that this level previously acted as support on August 3 and August 4. In the event of increased demand for gold, a breakout above $1930 could propel the price toward $1940 to $1947.

Conversely, a breach below the recent support level of $1914 might drive the gold price down to the $1900 to $1892 range. Therefore, today's focus lies on the pivotal level of $1912, as a breakout below this point could potentially signal further selling trades.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to extend its upward rally, maintaining its position above the 1.1000 mark as we head into Friday. This pair has now exhibited positive trading performance for a consecutive three-day period. However, the reason behind this upward momentum can be attributed to a variety of factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and significant data releases from Europe.

Looking ahead, a number of traders are adopting a cautious approach, opting to observe market developments rather than actively engage. This catious feeling is strong because the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) report is expected to be released later in the American trading session. However, the outcome of this report is anticipated and is anticipated to have a meaningful impact on market dynamics, thereby influencing the trading strategies of many market participants.

ECB Report and Inflation Uncertainty: Potential Impact on EUR/USD Pair

The European Central Bank's (ECB) recent report highlighted that inflation in the Eurozone is expected to remain high for an extended period, and the outlook for economic growth and inflation is uncertain. A Reuters poll suggests that the 2.0% inflation target might not be achieved until 2025, with over 90% of surveyed economists not expecting any interest rate cuts before the second quarter of 2024.

This news could weigh on the EUR/USD pair, as high inflation and economic uncertainty might impact the euro's strength.

US Economic Data's Dual Impact on EUR/USD Pair

According to the latest data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US experienced a year-on-year increase of 3.2% in comparison to June's 3%, which was just slightly below the anticipated 3.3%. In the meantime, the Core CPI showed a slight decrease, moving from 4.8% to 4.7%. Furthermore, there was an unexpected rise in Initial Jobless Claims, reaching 248,000, surpassing the earlier forecast of 230,000.

Therefore, the impact of this news on the EUR/USD pair could be two sided. The stronger-than-expected CPI and Core CPI figures may bolster the US Dollar, driven by possible expectations of stricter monetary policy and increased investor attraction. On the other side, the surge in Initial Jobless Claims could indicate economic difficulties, potentially offsetting the Dollar's strength. As a result, the EUR/USD pair could experience a mix of influences, potentially leading to increased volatility or a complex trading pattern.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is exhibiting notable upward momentum as it tests the pivotal resistance level at 1.1030. This prompts a cautious approach in the upcoming trading sessions, emphasizing the importance of the price remaining below this level to sustain the current bearish trend. The associated targets within this bearish trajectory lie at 1.0955 and extend further to 1.0880, contingent on the successful breach of the aforementioned resistance level.

Conversely, it's crucial to acknowledge that a breach of 1.1030, followed by a sustained position above it, would halt the negative scenario and potentially reignite an attempt to reestablish the primary bullish trend. In terms of today's expected market dynamics, the projected trading range spans from the support level of 1.0900 to the resistance level of 1.1030.

Overall, the prevailing trend for today is anticipated to be bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is showing strong optimism as the Euro (EUR) continues its upward journey against the US Dollar. Thanks to encouraging US inflation numbers, the pair reached exciting new heights around 1.1065. This persistent positive sentiment, coupled with a growing appetite for risk, is playing a role in the Greenback's decline, which was seen as a key factor that kept the EUR/USD currency pair higher.

Driving Factors Behind EUR/USD Upward Momentum

However, the reason for its upward surge can be linked to recent progress in key economic indicators. The German Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) stood at 6.5%, in line with market expectations. Similarly, Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improved, rising from -22.5 in July to -18.9 in August, surpassing the expected -23.4.

It is worth noting, the European Central Bank is set to release the Economic Bulletin, a report that might offer insights into their monetary outlook for the year. These elements together shape the direction of the EUR/USD currency pair.

US Dollar's Trajectory and Inflation Influence on EUR/USD

Looking at the other side of things, the movements of the US dollar lately are influenced by what officials from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are talking about. It looks like they're moving away from raising interest rates and leaning more towards keeping them steady. For example, Philly Fed's Patrick Harker mentioned not changing rates, and Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic believes there's no need for more rate hikes.

But what really matters for people who invest is the US inflation numbers. If inflation stays low, the US dollar might become weaker, which could give a slight boost to the EUR/USD pair. In general, most investors think the Fed will keep the rates where they are now, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is working out how to tighten things up after the summer.

Influential US CPI and PPI Data Impact on EUR/USD

Looking ahead, our attention shifts to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Thursday. This data is really important because it helps the Federal Reserve (Fed) decide what to do with interest rates, which also affects the direction of EUR/USD. Predictions say that US inflation might go up a bit from 3% to 3.3%, and the core rate is expected to stay around 4.8%. These numbers are super important for investors, and they could guide how the EUR/USD currency pair moves based on what the Fed does and how people feel in the market.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has maintained a sideways and narrow trajectory since yesterday. It's worth noting that the EMA50 indicator continues to exert downward pressure on the price, thus sustaining the bearish trend scenario. The confirmation of this scenario hinges on the breach of the 1.0955 level, which would validate the extension of the bearish movement toward the 1.0880 level.

The presence of a double top pattern's negative influence enhances the likelihood of further anticipated declines in the forthcoming sessions. It's crucial to emphasize that the continuity of the bearish trend necessitates staying below the 1.1030 level.

For today, the projected trading range spans from the support level of 1.0900 to the resistance level of 1.1030.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to show sluggish trading, maintaining its consolidation around the 1.2715-20 range. Traders are exercising caution in light of the imminent US July inflation data Furthermore, news of the UK's move to limit investments in Chinese tech companies weighs on the Pound Sterling. In the meantime, the concerns about a possible British recession and the potential for increased rates in London are further dampening the performance of the Cable pair. These combined factors are fostering a cautious approach among GBP/USD traders

UK Political Moves, Economic Forecasts, and Their Impact on GBP/USD

According to the Financial Times (FT), UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is considering limiting investments in China's tech sector, aligning with US President Joe Biden's approach. This move comes as Sunak aims to regain political support following recent by-election setbacks.

Meanwhile, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicts British output to recover to pre-pandemic levels by Q3 2024, with a 60% chance of an election during a recession. On a positive note, NIESR expects UK inflation to exceed the Bank of England's 2.0% target for four years, potentially prompting actions to support the British Pound (GBP) by the central bank.

Therefore, this news of UK PM Sunak considering limits on Chinese tech investment, along with NIESR's prediction of British output recovery by Q3 2024 and potential election risks, could create uncertainty for GBP/USD.

Market Uncertainty Amid CPI and GDP Anticipation, US-China Tensions, and Central Bank Doubts

Market sentiment remains uncertain as traders anticipate the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and UK's Q2 GDP results, while tensions between the US and China persist. US President Biden signed a bill limiting investments in Chinese entities, prompting concerns from China.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair successfully breached the 1.2725 level and concluded the daily candlestick below it. This development reinforces the anticipation of a sustained bearish trend in the forthcoming trading sessions, thereby paving the way for a potential move towards 1.2825 as the next downside target.

The influence of the EMA50 indicator continues to align with the projected bearish wave. It's noteworthy that surpassing the 1.2725 level would alleviate the present downward pressure, initiating potential recovery attempts aimed at reaching the 1.2825 regions initially.

For today's trading outlook, the projected range is set between the support level of 1.2625 and the resistance level of 1.2790.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is maintaining its upward trajectory above the 1.0942 level, with a neutral intraday bias at present. The persistence of resistance at 1.1148 suggests the potential for further decline. A support level is found at 1.0832 in case the pair drops below 1.0942.

EUR/USD Market Analysis: The Euro displays a recovery pattern within an adjacent triangle below 1.1000 amid concerns over Italy's tax policy.

During the early hours of Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD has managed to recover some of its weekly losses. Consequently, the currency pair finds itself within a symmetrical triangle formation that has persisted for two months. This uptick in sentiment can be attributed to positive news and data releases from China, contributing to a slight improvement in overall market sentiment.

The recent surge in market performance is bolstered by an increase in factory-gate inflation figures from China, offsetting concerns arising from a rise in consumer prices. Furthermore, Bloomberg's reference to the Biden Administration's optimistic news has provided a source of comfort for EUR/USD traders. According to the report, the US plans to specifically target Chinese companies that derive more than 50% of their revenue from industries like quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI).

It's worth noting that unexpected tax implications for banks' windfall profits in Italy, coupled with global credit rating agencies downgrading US financial institutions, are influencing risk perception and consequently affecting the EUR/USD price. Apprehensions related to potential economic downturns in the UK and China's decelerating economic growth seem to resonate on a similar wavelength, adding complexity to the market outlook.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair made an effort to surpass the 1.0955 threshold but has commenced the day on a bullish note, influenced by the Stochastic indicator's positive outlook. Some interim gains are anticipated before the pair potentially resumes its downtrend.

The persistent downward pressure exerted by the EMA50 underscores the prevailing bearish correction trend, a sentiment further reinforced by the recently observed double top pattern on the chart.

In light of the current analysis, the bearish trajectory is projected to continue in the near term, with a key target pinpointed at 1.0880. It's imperative to note, however, that any breach above the 1.1030 level could negate this bearish forecast, redirecting the pair towards its primary bullish trajectory.

Daily Price Outlook

Regarding 0.6457, the intraday sentiment is again skewed downwards. Following the breach, the descent from 0.7156 to the 100% projection level of 0.6457 from 0.6894 to 0.6195 will persist. As long as resistance remains at 0.6738, any potential recovery will maintain a slight downward risk for the immediate future.

During the Asian trading session on Wednesday morning, the AUD/USD pair remains subdued at 0.6555. Reports concerning the US-China relationship continue to strengthen the prevailing inclination towards purchasing US Dollars.

However, it's worth noting that the US government intends to focus solely on Chinese businesses generating over 50% of their revenue from quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI). According to Bloomberg, an executive order by US President Joe Biden regarding this ban is expected this week.

Recent developments between the world's two largest economies might benefit the Australian Dollar (AUD) acting as a liaison for China while adversely affecting the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair closed beneath the 0.6550 benchmark yesterday, further solidifying the forecasted bearish trajectory for the imminent timeframe, with an eye on the 0.6400 mark as the subsequent pivotal target.

The prevailing bullish undertone, as indicated by the Stochastic's upbeat momentum, necessitates the pair to remain under the 0.6550 and 0.6600 thresholds to ensure the continuation of the anticipated bearish momentum. Surpassing these benchmarks could act as a catalyst for the pair's resurgence, initiating a potential rally towards the significant resistance set at 0.6665.

For today, the anticipated trading spectrum is projected to span from a support level of 0.6490 to a resistance of 0.6590. The day's overarching trend is expected to be bullish.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold Price (XAU/USD) succeeded in regaining some strength during the Asian session on Wednesday. It managed to recover from a four-week low in the range of $1,922-$1,923, currently trading just below $1,930.

However, the uptick in gold's price can be attributed to a few factors. The equity markets are relatively weak, and the US Dollar has slightly decreased. These combined factors have provided some support to the value of gold. Moreover, concerns have arisen due to weaker trade data from China, the world's second-largest economy, which has raised worries about its economic outlook.

Adding to this, the recent downgrade of debt ratings for several US banks by Moody’s has prompted investors to seek safer options, benefiting the appeal of the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.

Furthermore, the Gold price was being backed by the weaker US Dollar. The USD Index, which measures the Dollar against other currencies, is currently not very strong, staying below a recent high. This is benefiting Gold because it's priced in dollars. It should be noted that the top official from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank mentioned that they might lower interest rates next year. This has stopped the US Dollar from getting stronger, although the decrease might not be very big. This situation is supporting the Gold price and makes it more appealing to investors.

Market Outlook and Considerations

Looking forward, traders believe the Federal Reserve will keep its tough stance due to the strong US economy. A jobs report showed the job market is good, increasing the chances of a smooth economic slowdown. Fed Governor Michele Bowman also suggested a possible interest rate increase in September or November, boosting the US Dollar.

Traders might wait before acting because of the upcoming US consumer inflation report. This report will influence how the market thinks about future Fed decisions. This affects the US Dollar and decides the next move for Gold's price. So, waiting for clear signs of buying might be smart to confirm if Gold's price has hit a short-term low.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The closing of the gold price yesterday displayed a marked downtrend, decisively falling past the $1,929.00 threshold and underscoring the daily candlestick's settlement below it. This bolsters the anticipation of an enduring bearish trajectory, targeting a prominent level at $1,913.15.

The present optimistic inclination of the Stochastic indicator alludes to prospective affirmative trades at today's market commencement. On the flip side, the enduring bearish thrust imposed by the EMA50 emphasizes the probability of sustained bearish trends in the near future.

In summary, our evaluation tilts towards a dominant bearish outlook, driven by the conspicuous double top pattern depicted on the chart. This perspective will undergo reevaluation if the price successfully eclipses the $1,945.20 mark and retains its stature above that benchmark. The forecasted trading range for today is anticipated to hover between a floor of $1,915.00 and a ceiling of $1,945.00.