Daily Price Outlook

On Monday, the price of gold finds it difficult to acquire momentum. The yellow metal is currently trading 0.24% lower than $1,961 for the day. Market participants are anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as stated by Goldman Sachs. The price of gold in US dollars could be considerably impacted by these occurrences.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will disclose the results of its monetary policy meeting, and market participants anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) increase in interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of another Fed rate hike following the July meeting jumped to 28% from 15.9% last month.

This signals the potential end of the current rate-hiking cycle. This has contributed to the US Dollar's recovery and acted as a headwind for the Gold price. The focus will be on the monetary policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting.

Following this, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also anticipated to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points in their meeting to control high inflation. The prospects of further tightening from both central banks are limiting the rise of Gold prices.

However, concerns over China's economic growth, US-China trade relations, and geopolitical risks are preventing a significant decline in the Gold price.

 Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices have confirmed a break below the support line of the intraday bullish channel, indicating an upcoming decline towards the $1945.20 level. This suggests a bearish bias for today, and further confirmation of the bearish trend will occur if the price breaks below $1960.00.

However, it's important to note that this expected decline is temporary, and the bullish track is expected to resume later on. If the price breaks below the targeted level, it may face additional negative pressure, with the next target at $1913.15.

On the other hand, breaching the $1977.25 level will be a positive factor that could halt the current negative pressure and lead to a rise in the price.

Expected trading range for today: $1945.00 (support) to $1977.00 (resistance).

Daily Price Outlook

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair demonstrated a positive performance, rising by +0.19% within a 24-hour period and stabilizing at $1.1141. This marked the end of a 7-day losing streak, as the pair rebounded from losses incurred during the previous two sessions.

US Dollar Under lost its 5-Day winning Streak

During the early hours of Monday's trading session, signs of further recovery were evident, largely attributed to the declining prices of the US Dollar Index, which saw a decrease of -0.17% on a daily basis, settling at 100.90.

Additionally, the 10-year treasury yield declined by -0.31% to 3.82, further exerting pressure on the greenback throughout the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a drop after a 5-day consecutive rise, having reached its highest levels since April 2022 during the previous week. The decline in the greenback's value on Monday can be partially attributed to anticipation ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's scheduled speech on Wednesday.

Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, putting an end to rate cuts. This development has already been factored into the market, resulting in a correction in the price of the greenback.

ECB's Anticipated Cautious Rate Increase

Meanwhile, in the European context, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to enact a 25 basis-points rate increase, adopting a cautious approach in light of concerns raised by certain European policymakers about the potential risks associated with aggressive tightening. The German economy's severe slump has added to these considerations. President Lagarde is likely to adopt a "data-dependent approach," refraining from committing to another hike during the September meeting.

The possibility of a "dovish hike" could have a negative impact on the euro, leading traders to adjust their expectations for further monetary tightening. Moreover, the release of PMI data from both the USA and European nations today will play a significant role in influencing the prices of EUR/USD in the upcoming hours. Market participants will closely monitor this data for insights into the economic health of the regions and its potential impact on the currency pair's movement.

 EUR/USD - Technical analysis

EUR/USD remained stagnant in recent sessions, trading within the 1.1105 support and 1.1170 resistance levels. The price must surpass either of these levels for clearer direction in its next targets.

As the price remains indecisive, a break below the support could lead to further declines targeting 1.1055 and 1.1000 levels. Conversely, breaching the resistance is crucial to resume the main bullish trend, aiming for 1.1275 and 1.1418 levels.

Expected trading range for today: 1.1050 (support) to 1.1210 (resistance).

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 index experienced a slow movement as investors eagerly awaited crucial events that could shape market sentiment and direction. On Monday, SPX is rising by +0.03% gains at 4536.34, this little change reflects the cautious stance of traders.

The previous week saw a mixed performance among the major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to extend its winning streak for ten consecutive days, the longest since 2017, albeit with a mere 2.51-point gain. On the other hand, the S&P 500 closed the week with a modest 0.7% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded a 0.6% decline. These fluctuations indicate a hesitant market sentiment, with investors treading cautiously.

Market experts have been noting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards a more bearish outlook. The profit-taking attitude has been particularly evident among investors who have enjoyed impressive returns from tech and FAANG stocks.

The slow movement in the S&P 500 index can also be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The slight improvement in price of index might be due to the ongoing expectations of potential rate hike in the upcoming Fed meeting.

Additionally, the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, further contributed to the cautious atmosphere.

Moreover, the ongoing earnings season played a significant role in the index's sluggishness. With a busy week ahead, including financial updates from major companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, as well as significant pharmaceutical, industrial, and big oil firms, investors remained on the sidelines, awaiting corporate performance indicators that could influence market trends.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

Taking a look at the technical side of the S&P 500, it is currently trading around the 4535 support level. This particular support divergence is being extended by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, upon examining the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator, both of them are showing overbought conditions, suggesting that the chances of a bearish correction remain strong.

At the moment, the 23.6% retracement level, as well as the 50-day exponential moving average, are providing immediate support around 4535. In the event of a bearish break below this level, the SPX price is likely to be exposed to the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels, which are at 4506 and 4484 respectively.

An alternative scenario is a bullish break above the 4580 resistance level, which would likely expose the S&P 500 index towards the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

Therefore, we should monitor the 4535 level closely, as a bearish break below this support could present a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the support holds, we can also consider a buying opportunity.

Daily Price Outlook

Currently, the intraday bias for EUR/USD remains neutral, but there is an expectation of a further rally. If the price breaks above 1.1011, it will resume the upward movement that started from 1.0634, with 1.1094 as the target resistance level.

EUR/USD Forecast: Corrective Decline in Progress

At the beginning of the day, the EUR/USD pair once again surpassed the 1.1200 level, but the increase was limited due to a deteriorating market sentiment. The pair reached a peak of 1.1228 before retracing to its current level around 1.1180.

The Asian trading session was marked by a bearish tone, driven by tensions between China and the US over the major Asian semiconductor sector and disappointing earnings announcements from companies like Tesla and Netflix.

US indexes lost momentum after a positive close, and Wall Street futures were trading negatively before the opening.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro Approaches Support-Turned-Resistance at 1.1150 Ahead of ECB and Fed Verdicts

As market participants seek clear directions ahead of next week's monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve (Fed), the EUR/USD pair reflects the impact of the first negative week in four and is currently holding modest gains between 1.1130 and 1.1140 in early Friday morning trading in Europe.

The Euro pair's performance is influenced by the need for significant data or events and conflicting concerns about the different central banks, which is creating uncertainty among traders.

In economic data, the US weekly jobless claims report showed a decrease to 228K, the lowest level since mid-May, surpassing market expectations of 242K. However, Existing Home Sales fell short of expectations, declining from 4.3 million to 4.16 million (annual rate) in a separate report.

On the other hand, Eurozone Consumer Confidence improved more than anticipated, rising from -16.0 to -15.1, according to the flash calculation for July.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

EUR/USD experienced a bearish sentiment in yesterday's session, leading it to settle near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the last bullish wave.

The pair also moved below the EMA50, creating negative pressure that could result in further bearish correction.

However, there are positive signals from the stochastic indicator that may support a return to the main bullish trend.

The conflicting signals from the technical indicators prompt us to adopt a cautious stance and wait for clearer signals to determine the next trend.

It's important to note that breaching the support level at 1.1105 could lead to additional downside targets at 1.1055 and 1.1000.

Conversely, breaking the resistance at 1.1170 would signal a potential continuation of the main bullish trend, targeting 1.1275 and 1.1418 as the next main objectives.

Expected trading range for today: 1.1050 (support) to 1.1230 (resistance).

Daily Price Outlook

Gold's price (XAU/USD) is holding firm around $1,970, continuing its upward trend for the third consecutive week.

As investors await key central bank statements from the US, Europe, and Japan, the precious metal maintains its recent highs, fueled by market consolidation, a light economic calendar, mixed catalysts, and pre-announcement uncertainty.

On the previous day, positive US job indicators and disappointing performances in the US oil and technology stocks led to an increase in US Treasury bond rates and the US Dollar. Additionally, doubts surrounding China's economic growth posed challenges for gold buyers.

However, the US Dollar's strength in preparation for the upcoming Fed meeting and the actions taken by officials to safeguard the Chinese economy triggered a corrective bounce in the XAU/USD price, halting a two-day losing streak.

Notably, apart from the positive employment data, most US figures have not been strong enough to support the Fed's announcement of further rate hikes beyond July in the upcoming week. This has deterred market bears and instilled optimism among gold investors.

Nevertheless, much depends on the US central bank's ability to defend the US Dollar and maintain its hawkish stance.

 Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices closed below the level of $1977.25 yesterday, but they are currently consolidating above the intraday bullish channel. The presence of the EMA50 at this support level adds further strength to the consolidation.

Additionally, the stochastic indicator has reached the oversold areas and is showing positive overlapping signals.

Given these factors, we are inclined to suggest a bullish bias for the upcoming period. The initial targets are set at breaching $1977.25, which would reinforce the likelihood of the price heading towards $2000.00, followed by $2016.90 as the next positive milestones.

It's important to note that a break below $1967.40 would halt the expected rise and potentially lead to a decline in price.

The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $1960.00 and the resistance level of $1990.00.

Daily Price Outlook

During Friday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight increase, rebounding from a one-and-a-half-week low observed in the range of 1.2840 to 1.2835 the previous day.

However, spot prices are currently hovering near 1.2880, showing a minor gain of just over 0.10% for the day, without any significant follow-through buying or strong bullish sentiment.

The US Dollar (USD) is playing a significant role in supporting the GBP/USD pair, as it retraces the strong overnight advance that brought it close to a one-week high.

Positive US macroeconomic data released on Thursday, indicating continued strength in the US labor market and supporting expectations of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), is preventing significant downside for the USD.

However, investors remain uncertain whether the Fed will stick to its projection of a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the end of this year or adopt a more dovish policy stance.

GBP/USD: Cable Bears Await Confirmation from 1.2850 and UK Retail Sales

During the uneventful Asian session on Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair is stabilizing at around 1.2870 after five consecutive days of decline, which led to a two-week low. As the market anticipates the release of UK Retail Sales data for June, the Cable pair is exhibiting the usual pre-data consolidation.

 GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing downward pressure, trading below the 1.2935 level. This calls for cautious trading as a break below this level, followed by a breach of 1.2870, could signal further declines throughout the day, with a potential target of 1.2806.

However, the bullish trend scenario remains valid for today as long as the mentioned support levels hold. In this case, the price targets for GBP/USD start at 1.3010 and could extend to 1.3140 after surpassing the initial resistance.

The expected trading range for today is between the support level at 1.2870 and the resistance level at 1.3050.

The expected trend for today is bullish, provided that the support levels mentioned earlier remain intact.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite experiencing a recent decline from its daily peak, the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains at a two-month high, benefitting from a weakening US Dollar and sluggish market conditions.

The positive factors supporting the gold price include news from China that is supportive of prices, as well as low yields. Additionally, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is taking steps to ease rules on foreign investment and is willing to reduce geopolitical tensions with the US if certain conditions are met, which will likely contribute to the strength of the gold price.

Conversely, there are expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adjust its policy due to weak US housing and consumer expenditure data, leading to calls for a change in interest rates.

Discussions surrounding the positive outlook for US banks and the BRICS countries' interest in using gold-backed currency further bolster the bullish sentiment for XAU/USD. The BRICS countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Recent concerns from major central banks about the potential for higher interest rates, coupled with a lack of optimism in the Asia-Pacific market, have been driving demand for gold.

This trend is particularly noticeable ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is scheduled to take place the following week.

The gold price forecast for XAU/USD indicates a fresh two-month high and suggests the potential for further appreciation. After a brief pause, the price of gold has regained momentum and reached new highs during the Asian session, currently trading in the range of $1,984 to $1,985.

This upward trend is expected to continue based on the steady upward movement observed over the past three weeks or so.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

The price of gold has successfully surpassed the level of $1,977.25, closing the previous four-hour candlestick above it. This development indicates the potential for a continued bullish trend in the short-term and intraday scenarios. As a result, new target levels are now in focus, beginning at $2,000.00 and followed by $2,016.90.

The upward movement is supported by a bullish channel, which receives significant reinforcement from the EMA50 indicator. However, if the price breaks below the level of $1,977.25, the anticipated rise may be halted, leading to a potential reversal and a shift towards a decline.

For today's trading, it is expected that the support level will be around $1,970.00, while resistance is likely to be encountered at $2,005.00.

Overall, the outlook for today suggests a bullish trend in the gold market, but it is important to monitor the price action closely for any potential reversals or shifts in the market sentiment.

Daily Price Outlook

As long as the AUD/USD exchange rate remains above 0.6594, the trading range is expected to remain neutral. The presence of the resistance level at 0.6710 suggests a potential further decline.

However, if the rate breaks below 0.6594, the downward movement from 0.6898 is likely to resume, with the next support level at 0.6457.

The AUD/USD price analysis highlights Australia's employment-driven rebound from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) towards 0.6850.

This rebound marks the largest daily gains in a week and ends a four-day losing streak for the currency pair.

The positive surprise from the June Australian jobs report contributes to the positive sentiment. As of the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading near the intraday high of 0.6840, reflecting a 0.90% increase.

It's worth noting that the employment change and unemployment rate in Australia showed positive trends in June, while the participation rate slowed and part-time employment statistics declined.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair starts the day with an upward rally, breaking above the 0.6780 level and indicating a potential return to the bullish trend. This movement is influenced by positive Australian economic data and supported by the stochastic indicator, suggesting a continuation of the bullish bias and aiming to achieve positive targets around 0.6924.

Therefore, further upward movement is anticipated in the upcoming sessions, unless there is a break below the 0.6780 level and a sustained hold below it.

For today's trading, the expected range is between the support level at 0.6780 and the resistance level at 0.6890.

Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bullish, but it is important to monitor the price action for any potential reversals or shifts in market sentiment.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair experienced a slight decline, reaching a low of 1.1173, but ultimately finished the day just below the 1.1200 level. The Euro managed to hold above 1.1200 for most of the morning, partly supported by European statistics.

The Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for June showed a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, in line with expectations. However, annual inflation in the European Union decreased from 7.1% in May to 6.4% in June.

Despite less-than-promising macroeconomic data from the US, financial markets maintained a sense of optimism during the American session. Building permits in June declined by 3.7%, while housing starts dropped by 8%.

The EUR/USD pair continued its pullback from the 1.1280 resistance level, reflecting the uncertain divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Prior to Wednesday's European trading session, the pair traded around 1.1220, retracing from its highest level since February 2022. This movement in the Euro-dollar pair provides insights into the US Dollar's corrective bounce and the ECB's concerns amid volatile trading conditions.

According to Bloomberg, ECB officials are facing challenges in predicting the central bank's future actions. The report emphasizes the difficulty of explaining the July rate hike, with policymakers expressing different perspectives.

Unnamed officials cited by Bloomberg News state that the task is to avoid signaling either another rate hike or a pause.

The final readings of June's Eurozone inflation statistics and US housing market indicators, along with other risk factors, are likely to capture the attention of Euro traders.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair experienced negative trading yesterday and made an attempt to break the 1.1200 level. However, it later rebounded and remained above this level after finding support near 1.1170.

This keeps our bullish view intact, with further upward movement expected towards our next target at 1.1418.

The EMA50 indicator continues to provide support for the suggested bullish trend. To strengthen the positive outlook, a breakout above 1.1245 is necessary.

It is important to note that a break below 1.1200, followed by 1.1170, could exert corrective bearish pressure on the price, with initial targets around the 1.1105 area.

For today's trading, the expected range is between the support level at 1.1170 and the resistance level at 1.1310.

Daily Price Outlook

The US Dollar has been steadily rebounding from a 15-month low, while the price of gold (XAU/USD) has retreated from its recent eight-week high and is now trading near its intraday low. Risk factors stemming from China may also exert downward pressure on the XAU/USD market.

It is worth noting that despite negative US Treasury bond yields, gold prices have not seen a significant boost as market participants await new information to support the risk-on sentiment observed in the previous day.

However, the stand taken the day before was supported by expectations of increased profits for US banks due to higher interest rates. Moreover, concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy shift following the 0.25% rate hike in July contributed to the rise in the XAU/USD price.

The recent decline in gold prices can be attributed to positive US Retail Sales data and anticipation that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for a longer duration or announce multiple rate hikes.

Considering the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting and a light economic calendar, risk factors can provide some excitement for XAU/USD traders.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates near a multi-week high, just below the $1,980 level.

During the Asian session on Wednesday, the price of gold remained within a narrow trading range, consolidating its significant gains from the previous day and hovering around the $1,984 level, which represents an approximately eight-week high. Currently, XAU/USD is trading slightly below the $1,980 level and appears poised to continue its recent stable ascent observed over the past three weeks.

A weakening US Dollar is expected to provide support to the price of gold.

Despite growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a more dovish stance, the US Dollar (USD) has failed to stage a meaningful recovery from its lowest level since April 2022, reached on Tuesday. This suggests that the price of gold should continue to benefit.

The widely anticipated 25 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Fed at its upcoming policy meeting on July 25-26 did not have as pronounced of an impact as previously anticipated, strengthening expectations of a more cautious approach by the central bank.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices settle around the $1,977.25 level, encountering strong resistance at this point. We await positive momentum to drive the price above this level and toward our next targets, starting at $2,000.00 and extending to $2,016.90.

The EMA50 continues to support the anticipated bullish trend, influenced by the previously completed double bottom pattern.

It is important to note that if the price consolidates around the $1,977.25 level despite bullish attempts, it may face intraday downward pressure, targeting the $1,945.20 level before any new upward movement.

The projected trading range for today is between support at $1,960.00 and resistance at $1,995.00.