Daily Price Outlook

Despite the renewed strength of the US dollar, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to regain strength and turned bullish around the 1.0948 level. However, the upticks in the pair can be attributed to the Eurozone's steady GDP growth in Q4 2023, which is generally positive for the EUR currency. Furthermore, the ECB's decision to maintain high borrowing costs and Lagarde's cautious tone can also be viewed as positive for the EUR currency.

In contrast to this, the US dollar regained its strength and flashed green at the start of the new week, possibly due to the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls data. This was seen as one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Looking forward, traders are cautious, awaiting cues from upcoming US and German February CPI inflation data, due on Tuesday. US Retail Sales will be in focus on Thursday. These events could influence Fed officials' decisions on the timing of potential interest rate cuts.

Eurozone Economic Outlook and ECB Policy's Impact on EUR/USD Pair

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep borrowing costs at their highest levels, which was largely anticipated. The ECB's President, Lagarde, was careful in her statements, highlighting the need for more evidence before considering rate cuts.

Furthermore, Eurostat's data for the fourth quarter of 2023 showed that the Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged month-on-month and grew by 0.1% year-on-year. This means that the Eurozone's economy didn't decline further but also didn't show strong growth, indicating a period of stability but with cautious optimism for future improvements.

Therefore, the ECB's cautious stance and stable GDP growth in the Eurozone could strengthen the EUR against the USD, reflecting confidence in the Eurozone economy compared to the US.

US Labor Market Strength and Rate Cut Expectations Impact on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the February Nonfarm Payrolls data showed a robust labor market with 275K jobs added, surpassing expectations. However, the Unemployment Rate increased to 3.9%, and wage growth slightly dipped to 4.3%. Despite this, Fed Chair Powell indicated that the central bank is cautious about cutting rates, but the prospect of a rate cut in June weakened the dollar against the Euro.

Therefore, the strong US jobs report and potential rate cut expectations weakened the Greenback against the Euro, reflecting market sentiment favoring the Euro over the US Dollar.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair experienced a slight decline of 0.04%, positioning the price at 1.09358 on March 11. This subtle movement reflects the currency pair's current stability within a narrowly defined trading range. On the 4-hour chart, the technical landscape highlights a pivot point at 1.09812, indicating the critical level for short-term price direction. Resistance is mapped out at successive levels of 1.10323, 1.10802, and 1.11369, outlining potential hurdles for upward price movements.

Conversely, support levels are placed at 1.09149, 1.08431, and 1.07940, suggesting zones where the market may find a floor to rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 nudges towards the upper end of the neutral range, hinting at a slightly bullish momentum, but without veering into overbought territory. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.08825 further reinforces the bullish sentiment, as the current price remains above this indicator, suggesting underlying strength in the upward trend.

Considering these factors, a strategic entry for a long position is recommended above 1.09253, with an aim for a take-profit at 1.09852, and setting a stop-loss at 1.08885 to protect against potential downturns.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair failed to halt its downward rally and still showed a bearish bias around the 1.2847 level. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to the renewed strength of the US dollar, which recently dropped on the back of downbeat US unemployment data. Although it gained traction in the wake of upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Apart from this, the losses in the GBP/USD pair were further bolstered by the narrowing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, exerting downward pressure on the pound.

Investors are also awaiting employment data from the United Kingdom (UK), including the ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) and Employment Change figures, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index data for February will also be in the spotlight.

Interest Rate Cut Speculation Pressures GBP/USD Amid Positive UK Economic Sentiment

On the UK front, investors are predicting that the Bank of England (BoE) might start cutting interest rates as early as May, with expectations of three more cuts throughout 2024. This news is driving a bearish tone for the GBP/USD pair as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates before the BoE, potentially narrowing the policy gap between the two central banks.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at potential rate cuts this year, dependent on inflation aligning with the Fed's 2% target. Therefore, the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, coupled with the possibility of earlier cuts by the Federal Reserve, is creating a bearish outlook for the GBP/USD pair, narrowing the policy gap between the two central banks.

In contrast to this, the positive sentiment from the UK's Spring Budget announcement, coupled with forecasted stronger economic growth, is generally positive for the GBP.

US Dollar Rebounds on Upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls Data

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar managed to stop its losing streak and regained its strength at the start of the week. The previous losses in the dollar were mainly driven by the rise in the US unemployment rate, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in June. However, the release of upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls data helped the US dollar to gain traction.

On the data front, the US economy added 275,000 new jobs in February, beating expectations, but January's figures were revised down. Wage growth was slightly lower than expected. The chance of a Fed rate cut in May increased to 30% after the report, but June is still expected to be the most likely time for any such action.

On the positive side, the US Nonfarm Payrolls in February rose by 275,000, surpassing January's 229,000 and beating the expected 200,000. However, US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) grew by 4.3%, slightly below both the estimated and previous reading of 4.4%. Monthly, there was a 0.1% increase, lower than the anticipated 0.3% and the previous month's 0.5%.

Therefore, the US dollar rebounded after a losing streak, buoyed by better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls. However, concerns about a Fed rate cut persist, impacting GBP/USD with uncertainty and potential volatility.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair's subtle decline to 1.28512, marking a 0.03% decrease on March 11, reveals a cautious market sentiment. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the currency pair's technical structure showcases a pivot point at 1.28308, which serves as a baseline for short-term directional biases. Resistance levels identified at 1.28950, 1.29903, and 1.30912 delineate potential ceilings that could cap upward movements, whereas support levels at 1.27654, 1.26955, and 1.25977 suggest areas where buying interest might re-emerge.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 70 signals that GBP/USD is approaching overbought territory, suggesting that a corrective pullback might be on the horizon. Meanwhile, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.26657 underscores a bullish undertone, having maintained a trajectory above this moving average.

Given these observations, the trading strategy recommends initiating a sell position below 1.28939, targeting a take-profit level at 1.27836, while employing a stop loss at 1.29503 to mitigate potential losses.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidating within its bullish range and remained well bid around $2,190 marks. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors, including risk-off market sentiment, which was being pressured by geopolitical tensions, along with expectations that the global economy could weaken in 2024. The risk-off market sentiment underpinned the gold price as it recently hit the fresh record high touched on Friday. Furthermore, the upticks in the gold price were bolstered by increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in June amid downbeat US unemployment data.

Impact of US Economic Indicators on Gold Prices

It's worth noting that the recent rise in the US unemployment rate has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in June. This has kept US dollar low and contributed to the gold gains. This data was released on Friday showed the US unemployment rate reaching its highest level in two years, further increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This uncertainty and risk aversion are likely to continue supporting gold prices in the near term.

On the data front, the US economy added 275,000 new jobs in February, surpassing the estimated 200,000, although January's numbers were revised down to 229,000 from 353,000. Meanwhile, the wage growth, measured by Average Hourly Earnings, increased by 4.3% annually, slightly lower than January's 4.4%, missing market expectations. However, the possibility of a Fed interest rate cut in May rose to 30% after the report, but June remains the most anticipated timing for any such action. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year US government bond fell to a one-month low, dragging the US Dollar down and boosting gold prices.

Therefore, the increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut due to higher unemployment, are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the near term amid uncertainty and risk aversion.

Impact of Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Concerns on Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, the ongoing tensions in the middle east and concerns about a global economic slowdown in 2024 are driving investors towards the safe-haven XAU/USD, supporting gold prices. It should be noted that the reports from UNRWA highlight widespread hunger in Gaza as Ramadan begins, emphasizing the need for an immediate ceasefire. Israeli forces reportedly barred Palestinians from entering al-Aqsa Mosque in East Jerusalem, sparking tensions. Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas blames Israel for the failure to secure a ceasefire before Ramadan, emphasizing the desire for peace.

Therefore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic concerns may continue to drive investors towards the safe-haven XAU/USD, supporting gold prices amid uncertainty and the need for stability.

Looking forward, traders are awaiting the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday as it will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's market stance on March 11, with a price holding steady at $2,179.18, reflects a moment of equilibrium amidst fluctuating market sentiments. The technical landscape, as delineated by a 4-hour chart perspective, places the pivot point at $2,196.42, indicating a critical juncture for future price movements. Resistance levels are charted progressively higher at $2,227.22, $2,251.98, and $2,277.02, suggesting potential barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, support is firmly established at $2,156.18, with additional safety nets at $2,130.57 and $2,111.27, delineating zones where buying interest may resurge.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74 veers into the overbought territory, hinting at potential for a price pullback, while the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,120.30 provides a bullish backdrop, underscoring a prevailing uptrend that has buoyed gold prices above recent averages.

Given these dynamics, the current technical outlook suggests a cautious approach to gold trading. Entry for a sell position is advised below $2,179.18, with a take-profit target set at approximately $2,130.57, and a stop-loss order should be placed to limit potential losses at around $2,196.42. 

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well-offered around the 147.81 level. However, the reason for its downward rally can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost its momentum in the wake of increasing expectations for an interest rate cut this year. This, along with lower US Treasury yields, put pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Furthermore, renewed BoJ rate hike bets underpinned the Japanese yen, which was seen as another key factor that kept the USD/JPY pair under pressure. Moreover, the generally weaker tone around the equity markets provided a goodish lift to the safe-haven JPY and kept the currency pair lower for the third successive day.

US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate-Cut Uncertainty Weigh on USD/JPY Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is still flashing red and showing bearish momentum near its lowest level since February, as uncertainty looms over the Federal Reserve's rate-cut strategy. This lack of clarity is weighing on the USD/JPY pair, indicating a likely downward trend in the near term. Investors are eyeing Fed Chair Powell's testimony, as well as key economic data like the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance figures, ahead of the NFP report on Friday. Powell hinted at rate cuts this year but wants more evidence of inflation easing. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggests potential rate cuts in 2024, with softer job market data supporting this outlook and keeping pressure on the dollar.

Therefore, the USD/JPY pair is likely to see a downward trend due to the weak US dollar and uncertainty about the Fed's rate-cut strategy, influenced by Powell's testimony and key economic data.

Renewed Expectations of BoJ Policy Shift Bolster Japanese Yen

On the Japan front, the rise in inflation in Tokyo has sparked expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will soon shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, potentially boosting the Japanese Yen. Reports suggest the BoJ may consider ending negative interest rates amid optimistic pay negotiation outcomes expected to fuel spending. BoJ officials, including policymaker Junko Nakagawa and Governor Kazuo Ueda, hint at policy adjustments as Japan's economy progresses towards its inflation target.

Therefore, the renewed expectations of a potential shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy have bolstered the Japanese Yen, likely exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair amid uncertainty about the future direction of interest rates.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

In today's financial landscape, the USD/JPY pair has observed a notable depreciation, sliding down by 0.85% to 148.174, reflecting a bearish sentiment among traders. This movement situates the currency below its pivot point of 147.48, a critical level that could have served as a springboard for potential upward movements. However, resistance levels at 149.34, 149.82, and notably at 150.83, now seem like distant targets for bulls aiming for a rebound.

Conversely, the support framework beginning at 147.70 and extending down to 147.05 and further to 146.23, outlines key zones where buying interest may potentially cushion further declines. This delineation of support and resistance levels underscores the market's current volatility and the heightened sensitivity to underlying economic indicators and policy announcements.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced view of this pair's trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) plunges to 15, signaling an oversold condition that might suggest a forthcoming reversal or relief bounce, yet caution is warranted given the overall bearish context. The MACD's current value at -0.19, below its signal line at -0.44, further confirms the bearish momentum but hints at a potential slowing down of selling pressure. The 50-Day EMA at 149.95, standing above the current price, reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance is downwards.

Given these observations, the technical outlook for USD/JPY is predominantly bearish in the short term. Traders might consider entering sell positions below 148.571, with a take-profit objective at 147.479 and a stop loss at 149.202 to manage risks effectively. This strategy aligns with the current market sentiment and technical indicators, offering a pragmatic approach to navigating the ongoing volatility.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite geopolitical tensions and concerns about a slowdown in China, the AUDUSD currency pair has maintained an upward trend and remained well bid around the 0.6589 level. The bullish bias can be attributed to the upbeat Australian Trade Balance, which shows an increase slightly below expectations but still having a positive impact on the AUD currency, indicating strong trade performance. Moreover, the strong Chinese trade balance could further support the AUD due to Australia's close economic ties with China.

Furthermore, the upticks in the AUD/USD pair were bolstered by the weakening US dollar, which lost traction due to increasing expectations for an interest rate cut later this year. During a congressional testimony, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is likely to lower interest rates later in the year. This suggests that the Fed is concerned about economic conditions and is taking steps to stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper.

Australian and Chinese Economic Data Impact on AUDUSD Pair

On the data front, Australia's economy showed mixed results with fourth-quarter GDP growth at 0.2% QoQ, below the expected 0.3%, while YoY GDP expanded by 1.5%, slightly above expectations. Meanwhile, the Trade Balance surplus fell short, reaching 11,027M in February against the expected 11,500M, with imports rising by 1.3% and exports growing by 1.6%.

Moreover, the AiG Industry Index improved to -14.9, and the Judo Bank Services PMI surged to 53.1, indicating expansion. Despite lower GDP growth, economists from Commerzbank believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will delay rate cuts, supporting the Australian Dollar (AUD) for now.

Therefore, the mixed economic data from Australia, including lower-than-expected GDP growth and a trade surplus shortfall, could put some pressure on the AUDUSD pair, but the expectation of delayed rate cuts by the RBA may help support the Australian Dollar.

On the China front, the Trade Balance soared to $125.16B in February, surpassing expectations of $103.7B and the previous $75.34B. Imports and exports both saw year-on-year increases, with imports up by 3.5% and exports rising by 7.1%. This strong performance suggests robust activity in China's trade sector. The impressive trade balance figures from China, along with increased imports and exports, may strengthen the AUDUSD pair as it signals strong economic activity in China, a key trading partner of Australia.

US Dollar Decline and Interest Rate Cut Expectations Impact on AUDUSD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar continued its decline and remained well offered around 103.23, mainly due to lower US Treasury yields and increasing expectations for an imminent interest rate cut later this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed confidence in the US economy, expecting inflation to gradually reach the 2% target. Powell emphasized that the Fed's decisions on interest rates will depend on incoming data.

On a mixed note, Steven Friedman, a former NY Fed economist, warned against rushing to cut interest rates due to strong economic growth and unpredictable inflation. He believes there will be fewer rate cuts in 2024 than people think. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also expressed doubt about smoothly managing the economy's transition, suggesting two small rate cuts might happen but warned against celebrating victory over inflation too soon.

However, market indicators show a low chance of an interest rate cut in March but higher probabilities for cuts in May and June. Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will likely strengthen due to the US dollar's decline and the possibility of rate cuts, with market indicators suggesting higher probabilities for cuts in May and June.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair has exhibited a modest rise of 0.32% to trade at 0.65842, capturing the attention of traders and analysts alike. The pivot point, set at 0.6616, delineates a critical juncture for the currency pair, with immediate resistance levels at 0.6610, 0.6633, and a further resistance at 0.6650 suggesting potential areas of price contention. Conversely, support levels are positioned at 0.6562, 0.6536, and 0.6486, providing a safety net against downward pressures.

Technical indicators provide a clearer picture of the market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 70, edging into overbought territory, which might hint at a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) echoes this bullish sentiment, with a value of 0.0009 above the signal line of 0.0002, indicating a possible continuation of upward momentum. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6528 further supports this trend, offering a baseline of support.

Given these dynamics, the technical outlook for the AUD/USD remains bullish, suggesting an opportune moment for traders to consider a buy stop at 0.65890. Setting a take profit at 0.66158 and a stop loss at 0.65658 could optimize trade outcomes while managing risk. However, traders should remain vigilant, as the current overbought conditions may signal an impending trend reversal or consolidation phase.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward rally and hit the fresh all-time high of $2,160 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors, including increasing expectations for an imminent interest rate cut later this year, which undermined the US dollar and contributed to the gold price gains. During semi-annual congressional testimony on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell reinforced expectations for an imminent interest rate cut later this year. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment, pressured by geopolitical tensions and concerns about a slowdown in China, was seen as another key factor that kept the gold price high due to its safe-haven status.

Federal Reserve's Potential Interest Rate Cuts Propel Gold to Record Highs

On the US front, the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, is strongly considering lowering interest rates to boost the economy. This decision has weakened the US Dollar and made investors turn to Gold, driving its prices up to a fresh all-time high. However, the strong possibility, around 70%, of a rate cut occurring in June has caused the yields on US government bonds to drop to their lowest point in a month.

Meanwhile, Powell believes that if the economy continues on its current path, a rate cut later in the year is probable. Besides this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned the possibility of two rate cuts in 2024, although he might change his mind depending on how well the economy is doing.

Therefore, the likelihood of a rate cut in June, along with persistent economic worries, has driven gold prices to unprecedented levels. Investors are seeking refuge in gold due to uncertainties, considering it a safe-haven asset amidst turbulent market conditions.

Escalating Tensions and Humanitarian Crisis Drive Gold Prices Up

Furthermore, the long-lasting tensions in the Middle East and concerns about China's economic slowdown are driving up the price of safe-haven gold. It is worth noting that the recent Houthi missile attack killed three crew members on a cargo ship near Yemen, raising fears of more conflict in the area. This comes after an Israeli airstrike in Gaza killed five people and reports emerged of severe malnutrition and dehydration affecting thousands in northern Gaza.

This highlight the urgent need for aid in the region. Shockingly, the UN reveals that one out of every six children under two years old in northern Gaza is suffering from severe malnutrition. This alarming statistic highlights the urgent need for immediate aid and intervention to address the worsening situation and prevent further suffering among the region's vulnerable population.

Therefore, tensions in the Middle East and worries about China's economy are pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, causing its price to rise.

Looking forward, traders are keeping their eyes on the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's second day of testimony for guidance will also be in the spotlight. These events influence market direction and provide insight into the state of the US economy.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On March 7, Gold (XAU/USD) exhibited a commendable uptrend, marking a 0.47% increase to reach $2,158.25. This surge underscores a renewed investor interest in the precious metal as a hedge against potential market volatilities. The trading session highlighted significant movement beyond the pivot point of $2,146.02, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market.

Key resistance levels for Gold have been identified at $2,168.25, $2,182.32, and $2,196.38, which represent critical junctures that could either propel or limit further gains. Conversely, support levels established at $2,127.87, $2,114.71, and $2,098.83 offer a safety net against potential declines, underpinning the asset's resilience.

Technical indicators further bolster this optimistic outlook, with the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,042.37 and the 200-Day EMA at $1,982.27, both well below the current price, indicating sustained upward momentum.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) slowed its bullish rally but still remained well-bid above the $2,100 mark. However, the previously released weaker US economic data strengthened market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Hence, this dovish stance undermined the US dollar and pushed the gold price to the all-time high. Apart from this, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and China's economic woes dampen market sentiment, leading to increased flows towards safe-haven assets like gold.

Potential Rate Cuts and Market Concerns Lead to US Dollar Depreciation and Gold Surge

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar unable to stop its bearish trend and still flashing red in the wake of previously released downbeat data, which strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner. Hence, the weaker US dollar, driven by downbeat economic data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, has supported the gold price, as investors seek the safe-haven asset amid market uncertainties.

On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that economic activity in the services sector expanded for the 14th consecutive month in February, but at a slower pace due to a decline in employment. Additionally, data from the US Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed that total factory orders fell by 3.6% month-on-month (-2.0% year-on-year) in January, following a 0.3% decline in the previous month.

It should be noted that buyers are reducing their positions before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony, which will clarify the interest rate outlook and impact gold price. The CME Group's FedWatch tool suggests a 70% chance of rate cuts by June, keeping US dollar buyers cautious and supporting gold prices. Traders will also watch for the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data on Wednesday, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

On the geopolitical front, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and China's economic challenges also weighed on investor sentiment, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. According to the latest update, Israel blocked a food convoy to north Gaza, making it harder to prevent famine. In the meantime, the talks for a ceasefire continue, but the US believes hurdles can be overcome. In southern Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike killed a Hezbollah fighter, his wife, and his son. Since October 7, over 30,000 Palestinians have been killed and 72,000 wounded in Gaza, with 1,139 deaths in Israel from Hamas attacks.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the recent trading session on March 6, the price of Gold slightly dipped by 0.11%, settling at $2125.8. Despite the minor decrease, Gold's trading dynamics present a complex picture, with the precious metal hovering around significant technical levels that suggest a cautious yet potentially bullish outlook.

The pivot point stands at $2066, serving as a foundational benchmark for Gold's immediate trajectory. Resistance levels at $2106, $2129, and a more distant $2171 outline potential ceilings that Gold might encounter if it continues on an upward path. Conversely, support levels are established at $2042, $2002, and $1977, indicating critical junctures where buying interest might intensify, offering a safety net against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a high of 79, indicating that Gold might be entering overbought territory, which often precedes a pullback. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more nuanced view. With a MACD value of 1 and a signal line at 22.33600, the current positioning suggests that while there's potential upward momentum, caution is warranted due to the possibility of a trend reversal. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 2014 further underscores a bullish sentiment in the medium term, affirming Gold's resilience above this level.

Considering these factors, the technical outlook suggests a cautious but bullish bias for Gold. However, traders are advised to consider selling below $2030, with a take-profit target at $2116 and a stop-loss order at $2139, to manage risk effectively in light of potential volatility.

Gold's minor setback at $2125.8 hints at a cautiously bullish market posture.

Key technical indicators, including a high RSI and MACD analysis, suggest mixed signals, necessitating vigilance.

Advised trading strategy: Sell below $2030, targeting profits at $2116, safeguarded by a stop-loss at $2139.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to regain strength and turned bullish around the 1.0865 level. However, the upticks in the pair can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost momentum due to downbeat US data and a dovish stance by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the ECB might continue to underpin the shared currency and help limit any corrective decline for the EUR/USD pair. Moving on, traders seem hesitant to place strong positions as they will take cues from the US macro data – the ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data. The focus will then shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday and the key US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Euro Strengthens as Expectations for Aggressive ECB Stimulus Diminish

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank might not act aggressively to boost the economy, which could make the euro stronger. If they show caution about inflation and don't want to lower interest rates more, investors might see it as good for the euro. So, the EUR/USD pair could go up.

US Dollar Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Weak Economic Data and Dovish Fed Comments

On the US front, the US Dollar was under pressure due to weak economic data and cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve. However, the services sector grew slower in February, with fewer jobs. Factory orders fell by 3.6% in January, signaling lower demand for goods. The ISM Services PMI dropped below expectations to 52.6. This could lead to the EUR/USD pair going up as the Dollar weakens in response to poor data and Fed caution, potentially strengthening the British Pound against the US Dollar.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

On March 6, the EUR/USD pair slightly decreased by 0.05%, trading at 1.08514. This minor dip provides a critical opportunity to assess the currency pair's technical stance and potential future direction. Positioned near vital technical markers, the EUR/USD's movements suggest an environment ripe for strategic trading decisions.

The pivot point at 1.08347 acts as a foundational marker for the pair, with immediate resistance located at 1.08708. Further resistance levels are identified at 1.09054 and 1.09415, marking potential ceilings that the pair may encounter in an upward journey. On the flip side, support levels at 1.08031, 1.07625, and 1.07310 provide a safety net against downward movements, indicating areas where buying pressure could intensify.

Technical indicators shed light on the pair's current dynamics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 points towards a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment, hinting at some room for upside without straying into overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with a value of 0.000010 and a signal line at 0.000600 offers a cautious signal; the narrow gap suggests potential for upward momentum but warrants close observation for any shifts. Interestingly, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2693 seems misaligned with the current price, likely indicating a clerical error in the provided data.

Considering these factors, the EUR/USD presents a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the advised trading strategy being a buy stop at 1.08713. Setting a take profit at 1.0903 and a stop loss at 1.0841 allows traders to navigate the expected upward movement while managing risks effectively.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has maintained its previous day winning streak and hit the intra-day high of $1.2709. The upward movement was supported by expectations that UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would reduce national insurance contributions. This reduction will likely stimulate economic activity by increasing disposable income, potentially leading to higher consumer spending and business investment, which in turn could strengthen the GBP currency. Besides this, the upward momentum can also be attributed to the weakening US Dollar, which has been affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and recent negative US economic data.

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak's Potential Announcement on National Insurance Contributions

In the UK, Chancellor Rishi Sunak is scheduled to unveil the government's financial plan, known as the Budget Report, before the general election. This report outlines the UK's tax and spending strategies. However, the speculation suggests that Sunak might announce a reduction in national insurance contributions for employees. These contributions are similar to taxes in that they are mandatory payments made by both employees and employers to the government, specifically allocated to fund services such as healthcare, pensions, and other social security benefits.

However, the speculation revolves around a previous announcement indicating a potential reduction of 2 pence in national insurance contributions per pound. This reduction could affect the amount of money employees take home from their paychecks, possibly providing them with some financial relief. However, the exact details of the plan are still unclear, and any changes would require approval from Parliament.

Therefore, the reduction in national insurance contributions could be positive for the GBP currency, as it may boost consumer spending and economic growth, potentially strengthening the currency.

US Dollar Continues Bearish Trend Amid Disappointing Data and Dovish Fed Sentiment

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained bearish and continuously lost ground due to disappointing US macro data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that economic activity in the services sector continued to grow in February, marking the 14th consecutive month of expansion. However, this growth occurred at a slower pace compared to previous months, primarily due to a decrease in employment within the sector.

Meanwhile, the data from the US Commerce Department's Census Bureau revealed that total factory orders experienced a decline of 3.6% on a month-on-month basis in January. On a year-on-year basis, factory orders were down by 2.0%. This comes after a slight decline of 0.3% in the previous month. These figures suggest a weakening in demand for manufactured goods, which could have implications for overall economic growth and productivity.

On the other side, the ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.6 in February, lower than the expected 53.0, indicating slower growth. Factory Orders (MoM) also fell by 3.6% in January, surpassing the predicted 2.9% decline. Steven Friedman, a former New York Fed economist, suggested that the Federal Reserve might be cautious about cutting interest rates in 2024 due to economic growth and volatile inflation. He hinted that there might be fewer rate cuts than the three initially anticipated for the year.

Hence, the GBP/USD pair could see upward pressure as the bearish US Dollar reacts to disappointing economic data and cautious Fed sentiment, potentially boosting the British Pound against the US Dollar.

Moving ahead, traders are cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony. Investros will also keep thier eyes on the release of the US ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data on Wednesday, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

On March 6, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight decline, down by 0.04%, closing at 1.2700. This minor adjustment in price presents an opportunity to delve into the currency pair's technical landscape, offering insights into potential future movements. The pair's current position near key technical levels indicates a delicate balance between bullish and bearish sentiments.

The pivot point at 1.2652 serves as a critical juncture for GBP/USD, with immediate resistance observed at 1.2703. Further resistance levels at 1.2753 and 1.2804 delineate potential hurdles that the currency pair might face if it embarks on an upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels at 1.2602, 1.2551, and 1.2505 outline zones where the pair could find footing in case of a downturn, offering traders key levels to monitor.

Technical indicators reveal a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, suggesting a moderately bullish momentum without venturing into overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.0003 against a signal of 0.0012, indicating a potential for upward momentum as the MACD line hovers near the signal line. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2693 closely aligns with the current price, reinforcing the significance of this level as a pivotal point for the GBP/USD pair.

Given these observations, the technical outlook for GBP/USD leans slightly bullish, with a recommended trading strategy to buy above 1.26816. Setting a take profit at 1.27324 and a stop loss at 1.26613 can capitalize on the expected upward movement while managing risk effectively.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its four-day upward rally and surged to an all-time high, above the $2,100 mark. However, the surge in gold prices was mainly driven by bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in June, which undermined the US dollar and contributed to the gains in gold. Furthermore, previously released downbeat US economic data put further pressure on the US dollar, which is good for gold prices. In addition to this, the further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East was seen as another key factor that lent some support to safe-haven gold prices.

Potential Rate Cuts and Market Concerns Lead to US Dollar Depreciation and Gold Surge

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to halt its declining rally and remained bearish due to Friday's disappointing US macro data, along with less hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials. These factors bolstered bets for a June rate cut and pushed the gold price above the $2,110 mark. On the data front, recent data shows a faster-than-expected contraction in US manufacturing, with the ISM Manufacturing Index dropping to 47.8. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell short of expectations. These indicators suggest ongoing challenges for economic growth.

Although, the losses in the US dollar could fade shortly as the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could provide some support to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Moving on, traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the week's important US macro releases, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Moreover, investors are closely monitoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony for additional insights into the direction of interest rates, as well as key US macroeconomic data, to gauge the next potential move for XAU/USD.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

On the geopolitical front, escalating tensions in the Middle East are boosting demand for safe-haven precious metals. Israeli forces fired on Palestinians awaiting aid in Gaza City. The UN is warning that without more funding, things could get much worse. Poor nutrition and not enough medical care have led to the deaths of 16 children in Gaza. A UN team found signs of sexual violence during an attack on Israel but is calling for a ceasefire. Since October 7, Israeli attacks on Gaza have hurt over 30,000 Palestinians, while Hamas attacks in Israel have killed 1,139 people.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's modest uptick on March 5th, trading at $2114.875, shows a tightrope walk between gains and resistance. The precious metal's performance, marked by a mere 0.04% increase, positions it within a battleground of technical indicators and key price levels, as per the observed trading patterns.

The pivot point at $2066 serves as a crucial juncture, below which the immediate support levels at $2043, $2001, and $1977 outline potential fallbacks. Conversely, resistance levels await at $2108, $2128, and $2169, hinting at barriers gold must overcome to sustain upward momentum. Such dynamics underscore the metal's sensitivity to market fluctuations and investor sentiment, reflected in the technical outlook.

The RSI, peaking at 82, signals an overbought condition, suggesting cautious optimism among traders. Meanwhile, the MACD's value at 4.9 against a signal of 20.479 possibly indicates a disparity between immediate price actions and longer-term market trends. The 50-day EMA at 2098 reinforces a bullish undertone, yet the strategy to sell below $2120 with a take-profit at $2100 and a stop loss at $2129 acknowledges the immediate pressure points and potential pullback zones.

In essence, gold's current market positioning underscores a nuanced balance between bullish prospects and the need for strategic caution, given the looming resistances and overbought signals. As the market awaits further cues, the overarching narrative is one of vigilance and measured optimism.