Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish US dollar, the AUD/USD currency pair was unable to halt its previous session's losing streak and remained under pressure around 0.6490. However, the bearish bias could be attributed to the risk-off market sentiment, which tends to undermine riskier assets like the Australian Dollar (AUD) and contributed to the AUD/USD pair's losses. On the other side, the Chinese Services PMI contraction to 52.5 in February from 52.7 prior could potentially impact AUD/USD negatively. This is because Australia's economy is closely tied to China's, and weaker Chinese data may reduce demand for Australian exports, putting pressure on the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

In contrast to this, the positive performance of the Judo Bank Services PMI, reaching a ten-month high and indicating expansion, was seen as a key factor that could help the AUD/USD pair to limit its losses. On the data front, the Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) hit a ten-month high of 53.1 in February, signaling expansion. The Composite PMI also rose to 52.1, the highest in nine months. Traders are eagerly anticipating the release of fourth-quarter 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Wednesday.

Australian Economic Indicators and Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Despite the Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surging to a ten-month high of 53.1 in February, indicating expansion, the Australian Dollar remained under pressure. Besides this, the Composite PMI rose to 52.1, marking a nine-month high. However, the Australian Current Account Balance exceeded expectations at 11.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023.

According to the Australia Melbourne Institute, inflation slowed to a 4.0% year-over-year rise in February. Additionally, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index dropped to 81.0, the lowest in 2024. Building permits and inflation had mixed results, with monthly figures declining but yearly metrics improving.

Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI showed a slight uptick to 47.8, while Retail Sales and Private Capital Expenditure improved. Economist Matthew De Pasquale notes the Services PMI's implication of a soft landing in 2023, with a resurgence in early 2024, though inflation's return to target remains uncertain.

Therefore, the impact of the data on the AUD/USD pair could be mixed as positive indicators like the PMI surges and strong current account balance could support the Australian Dollar, potentially leading to an increase in the AUD/USD pair. However, the drop in consumer confidence and uncertainty around inflation could cap gains in the AUD/USD pair.

Impact of Bearish US Dollar and Geopolitical Tensions on AUD/USD Pair

On the other side, the bearish US dollar was another factor that could help the AUD/USD pair. On the US front, the broad-based US dollar continued its declining rally and remained bearish in the wake of disappointing US macro data on Friday, along with less hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials.

Apart from this, the risk-off market sentiment, pressured by geopolitical tensions, undermined riskier assets like the Australian Dollar (AUD), keeping the AUD/USD currency pair under pressure. The increasing tensions in the Middle East dampened risk sentiment, which affected the Australian Dollar. Since October 7, Israeli attacks on Gaza have injured over 30,000 Palestinians, while Hamas attacks in Israel have killed 1,139 people.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair experienced a slight decline on March 5th, settling at 0.65016, marking a 0.11% decrease. This subtle movement reflects the pair's current volatility and the ongoing assessment of its position relative to its pivot point and key technical indicators.

The pivot point, established at 0.6486, delineates the immediate battleground for AUD/USD, with resistance levels positioned at 0.6527, 0.6566, and 0.6608, suggesting areas where upward momentum might face challenges. Support levels at 0.6447, 0.6407, and 0.6365 indicate potential cushioning zones against further declines, outlining critical points for the currency pair's short-term trajectory.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced view of the market's direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 hints at neither overbought nor oversold conditions, suggesting a relatively balanced market sentiment. The MACD's slight crossover above the signal line (Value: -0.0004, Signal: -0.0005) intimates potential for upward momentum, albeit within a context of overall market caution.

The 50-day EMA, stationed at 0.6511, hovers just above the current price, reinforcing a close contest between buyers and sellers. The outlined trading strategy suggests a bearish inclination with an entry price for selling below 0.64939, a take-profit target at 0.64711, and a stop loss set at 0.65086. This setup underscores the anticipation of minor adjustments within a tightly held trading range, indicating a cautious approach amid the current market dynamics.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its four-day upward rally and surged to an all-time high, above the $2,100 mark. However, the surge in gold prices was mainly driven by bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in June, which undermined the US dollar and contributed to the gains in gold. Furthermore, previously released downbeat US economic data put further pressure on the US dollar, which is good for gold prices. In addition to this, the further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East was seen as another key factor that lent some support to safe-haven gold prices.

Potential Rate Cuts and Market Concerns Lead to US Dollar Depreciation and Gold Surge

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to halt its declining rally and remained bearish due to Friday's disappointing US macro data, along with less hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials. These factors bolstered bets for a June rate cut and pushed the gold price above the $2,110 mark. On the data front, recent data shows a faster-than-expected contraction in US manufacturing, with the ISM Manufacturing Index dropping to 47.8. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell short of expectations. These indicators suggest ongoing challenges for economic growth.

Although, the losses in the US dollar could fade shortly as the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could provide some support to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Moving on, traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the week's important US macro releases, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Moreover, investors are closely monitoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony for additional insights into the direction of interest rates, as well as key US macroeconomic data, to gauge the next potential move for XAU/USD.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

On the geopolitical front, escalating tensions in the Middle East are boosting demand for safe-haven precious metals. Israeli forces fired on Palestinians awaiting aid in Gaza City. The UN is warning that without more funding, things could get much worse. Poor nutrition and not enough medical care have led to the deaths of 16 children in Gaza. A UN team found signs of sexual violence during an attack on Israel but is calling for a ceasefire. Since October 7, Israeli attacks on Gaza have hurt over 30,000 Palestinians, while Hamas attacks in Israel have killed 1,139 people.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's modest uptick on March 5th, trading at $2114.875, shows a tightrope walk between gains and resistance. The precious metal's performance, marked by a mere 0.04% increase, positions it within a battleground of technical indicators and key price levels, as per the observed trading patterns.

The pivot point at $2066 serves as a crucial juncture, below which the immediate support levels at $2043, $2001, and $1977 outline potential fallbacks. Conversely, resistance levels await at $2108, $2128, and $2169, hinting at barriers gold must overcome to sustain upward momentum. Such dynamics underscore the metal's sensitivity to market fluctuations and investor sentiment, reflected in the technical outlook.

The RSI, peaking at 82, signals an overbought condition, suggesting cautious optimism among traders. Meanwhile, the MACD's value at 4.9 against a signal of 20.479 possibly indicates a disparity between immediate price actions and longer-term market trends. The 50-day EMA at 2098 reinforces a bullish undertone, yet the strategy to sell below $2120 with a take-profit at $2100 and a stop loss at $2129 acknowledges the immediate pressure points and potential pullback zones.

In essence, gold's current market positioning underscores a nuanced balance between bullish prospects and the need for strategic caution, given the looming resistances and overbought signals. As the market awaits further cues, the overarching narrative is one of vigilance and measured optimism.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to regain its strength, remaining well bid around the 1.0850 level. However, the upticks in the pair can be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which lost momentum due to downbeat US data and a less hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the ECB is waiting for more data on wage pressures before adjusting monetary policy and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. Therefore, the ECB's cautious stance and potential hawkish comments could be positive for the euro currency against the US dollar.

ECB's Potential Hawkish Stance in March Meeting Could Boost Euro Against Dollar

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is waiting for more data on wage pressures before deciding on its next move regarding monetary policy. It's expected that at the ECB's upcoming meeting in March, interest rates will remain unchanged. Investors are keenly interested in the post-meeting press conference, as it will provide some clues on the ECB's future policy plans. If the ECB adopts a hawkish tone, signaling concerns about inflation, it will lead to a stronger Euro.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair will likely face upward pressure if the European Central Bank (ECB) adopts a hawkish stance during its March meeting, indicating potential inflation concerns and strengthening the Euro against the US Dollar.

US Manufacturing Decline and Consumer Sentiment Weakness May Pressure US Dollar

On the US front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is considering cutting interest rates, but the timing depends on how the economy is doing. Some Fed policymakers, like Susan Collins and John Williams, think the first rate cut could happen later this year. Raphael Bostic from Atlanta believes that a rate cut might be needed as soon as this summer. This indicates a dovish stance from the Fed, suggesting interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. This weakens the US Dollar and contributes to the EUR/USD pair gains.

On the data front, the previously released data from the ISM survey indicates a sharper decline in US manufacturing activity for February than expected. This downturn is evident in the decrease of the ISM Manufacturing Index to 47.8 from January's 49.1, as well as a drop in the New Orders Index to 49.2. Additionally, employment in the sector hit a seven-month low, and the Prices Paid Index slightly declined to 52.5 from 52.9. Furthermore, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell short, registering at 76.9 in February. These collectively highlight challenges in manufacturing and subdued consumer sentiment, reflecting broader economic worries.

Therefore, the negative data from the ISM survey, indicating a sharper decline in US manufacturing activity and subdued consumer sentiment, could weaken the US Dollar as investors become more cautious about the economy.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair slightly increased by 0.06%, positioning itself at 1.08442, as it navigates through the complexities of current market sentiments and economic forecasts. This uptick is a testament to the currency pair's resilience amidst fluctuating market conditions, influenced by both domestic and international economic indicators.

The EUR/USD pair currently trades just above its pivot point of 1.0833, suggesting a potential for upward momentum if it maintains above this level.Immediate resistance levels are identified at 1.0866, 1.0895, and 1.0927. These levels represent critical junctures that could either cap gains or signal further bullish momentum upon a breakout.

Conversely, support levels at 1.0798, 1.0763, and 1.0731 provide a safety net against potential declines. These levels will be crucial for traders to monitor, as a breach could signify a shift towards a bearish market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but rather a neutral market momentum. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0822 slightly below the current price, further supports the notion of a potential bullish bias above the pivot point.

The EUR/USD pair shows signs of a cautiously optimistic trend, with a recommended entry price for buying set at just above the pivot point of 1.0833. A take-profit target is advised at 1.08672, with a stop-loss order at 1.08086 to mitigate risks. This trading strategy highlights a short-term opportunity for gains within a closely monitored risk management framework.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has maintained its bullish momentum and remained well bid around the 1.2665 level. However, the upward rally in the pair was bolstered by the BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill's hawkish remarks, which underpinned the GBP and contributed to the GBP/USD pair gains. Furthermore, the upward momentum can also be attributed to the subdued US Dollar, which lost traction due to the less hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and previously released downbeat US data.

Huw Pill's Hawkish Remarks Boost British Pound against US Dollar

On the UK front, Huw Pill's hawkish remarks suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to implement a rate cut in the near future, which bolsters the British Pound. This stance indicates confidence in the UK economy's resilience. However, the BoE is not currently considering implementing monetary easing measures, which could support the value of the Pound.

Investors interpret Pill's remarks as a signal of confidence in the UK economy's resilience or as a stance against potential inflationary pressures. Consequently, Huw Pill's hawkish remarks, indicating no imminent rate cut by the Bank of England, could strengthen the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) as market confidence in the UK economy increases, potentially leading to higher demand for the Pound.

Impact of Disappointing US Macroeconomic Data and Dovish Fed Comments on GBP/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is under pressure due to disappointing US macro data and less hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Furthermore, the risk-on sentiment in the market weakens the safe-haven appeal of the USD, providing some further support to the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the latest data from the ISM survey suggests a rapid decline in US manufacturing activity than anticipated for February. This contraction is highlighted by a decrease in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 47.8 from January's 49.1, along with a drop in the New Orders Index to 49.2. Furthermore, employment in the sector reached a seven-month low. The Prices Paid Index also declined slightly to 52.5 from 52.9. Moreover, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell short, registering at 76.9 in February. Collectively, these indicators point to challenges in the manufacturing sector and subdued consumer sentiment, reflecting broader economic concerns.

Furthermore, the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, expressing concerns about tight monetary policy and suggesting measures to support economic growth, indicate a dovish stance. Hence, the dovish stance from Federal Reserve officials typically leads to a weaker dollar due to expectations of lower interest rates.

Moving ahead, traders seems cautious to place any strong position ahead of key US economic releases, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair shows a modest uptick in today's trading session, with a 0.07% rise, positioning the currency pair at 1.26625. This minor gain reflects a tentative optimism in the market, as traders navigate through a complex landscape of economic indicators and geopolitical developments. The pair currently hovers around its pivot point of 1.2646, indicating a potential inflection point for future price movements.

Key resistance and support levels delineate the immediate trading boundaries for GBP/USD. Resistance is observed at 1.2697, followed by 1.2729 and 1.2772, which could cap upward movements in the short term. On the downside, support levels are established at 1.2605, 1.2567, and 1.2536, offering potential safety nets against price declines.

The technical indicators suggest a balanced market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 points to a neutral market momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2648 closely aligns with current price levels, suggesting a potential support that could fuel buying interest above the 1.2650 level. However, a descending triangle pattern hints at a potential limitation to upward movements, necessitating cautious optimism.

Considering these dynamics, the trading strategy for GBP/USD advocates for a cautious bullish stance. Recommended entry for buying is set slightly above the pivot point at 1.26493, with a take-profit target at 1.26964 and a stop loss at 1.26190 to mitigate risks. This strategy underscores a short-term opportunity for gains, albeit within a tightly monitored risk management framework.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the mixed performance of US dollar, the gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its subdued movement and remained well-offered around $2,080. However, the sluggish movement in the gold price is driven by the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven gold price. On the flip side, the US dollar is losing its traction following the release of Friday's disappointing US macro data and less hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials. This was seen as a key factor that could cap further losses in the gold price.

Impact of U.S. Macroeconomic Data and Federal Reserve Comments on Gold Price and U.S. Dollar

On the US front, the US Dollar is struggling due to disappointing macro data released on Friday. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials' less hawkish comments are also weighing on the currency, boosting the price of Gold. On the data front, the latest ISM survey indicates a faster contraction in US manufacturing activity in February than expected. In the meantime, the employment in the sector dropped to a seven-month low. Whereas, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 47.8 from January's 49.1, with the New Orders Index declining to 49.2. Moreover, the Prices Paid Index dipped to 52.5 from 52.9. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index also fell short, dropping to 76.9 in February.

Furthermore, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee indicate concerns about tight monetary policy, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested slowing down the shrinking of the balance sheet. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler expects progress in combating disinflation, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin anticipates a decrease in overall inflation in the coming months. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed interest in increasing the central bank's holdings of short-term Treasuries, which could push down US Treasury bond yields.

Therefore, the struggling US Dollar and less hawkish Fed remarks are lifting Gold prices. Meanwhile, the disappointing US macro data, particularly in manufacturing and sentiment, further boosts Gold's appeal amid economic uncertainty.

Impact of Risk-On Market Sentiment on Gold Price and U.S. Stock Index Futures

On the other hand, the risk-on market sentiment was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the gold price. U.S. stock index futures remained relatively unchanged on Monday, signaling a potential slowdown in the record-breaking rally as investors await updates on monetary policy and the Presidential Election. However, the S&P 500 Futures edged down 0.1% to 5,141.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures stabilized at 18,340.50 points, and Dow Jones Futures dipped 0.1% to 39,098.0 points but still flashing green, which indicate risk-on mood in the market possibly due to AI-led tech stock gains and expectations of early interest rate cuts.

Therefore, the risk-on market sentiment, coupled with expectations of early interest rate cuts and AI-led tech stock gains, limited additional gains in the gold price amidst relatively stable U.S. stock index futures.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The current technical outlook for gold (XAU/USD) on March 4th reveals a slight downtrend, with the price at $2081.125, marking a 0.10% decrease. The commodity is navigating a cautious path below its pivot point of $2086.70, indicating potential resistance ahead. The key resistance levels to watch are at $2098.43, $2108.83, and $2117.94, which if breached, could signal a bullish reversal. Conversely, immediate support is found at $2073.10, with further cushions at $2064.30 and $2050.70, suggesting areas where declines might find a floor.

Technical indicators provide a more nuanced view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 77, hinting at overbought conditions that could precipitate a pullback. The formation of an inverted hammer pattern on the 4-hour timeframe reinforces this bearish outlook, suggesting potential for a correction. Moreover, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2040.07 offers underlying support, highlighting a significant gap between current prices and the medium-term trend line.

Given these observations, the strategy leans towards a bearish bias with a recommended entry price for selling below $2085. Targets for taking profit and stopping losses are set at $2069 and $2098, respectively. This approach underscores a cautious stance in the short term, advising traders to watch for potential shifts around pivotal levels that could dictate the next phase in gold's price trajectory.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the ECB expected to cut its forecasts for inflation and growth at its March meeting next week, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward bias and gained positive traction above 1.0820, mainly due to the bearish US dollar. The US dollar has been losing its traction amid renewed expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year by the Federal Reserve. However, the release of PCE inflation data suggests potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which undermined the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair's gains.

In contrast to this, the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting forecasts for inflation and growth can weaken the euro because it signals potential economic weakness.

Fed's Hawkish Stance Fails to Bolster US Dollar Amid Rate Cut Speculation

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to revise down its projections for inflation and economic growth at its upcoming March meeting next week. Although the ECB is scheduled to decide on interest rates on March 7. However, there is an expectation that the ECB will say that both inflation and economic growth are falling short of initial expectations. In response to weaker economic conditions, the ECB may consider implementing monetary policy measures to stimulate economic activity.

One such measure could be a cut in interest rates. By lowering interest rates, the ECB aims to encourage borrowing and spending, which can stimulate economic growth and inflation. However, the prospect of interest rate cuts can also have a downward effect on the shared currency.

US January PCE Price Index Confirms Decelerating Inflation and Potential Interest Rate Cut

On the US front, the January Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index fell in line with market expectations. The headline PCE, which contains all items, showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, while the Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at a 2.8% YoY increase. These figures confirm the ongoing trend of decelerating inflation in the United States.

However, recent data indicates that January witnessed the lowest inflation rate in three years, suggesting a notable slowdown in the rate of price growth for goods and services. This raises the prospect of an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Hence, the lower inflation rates typically ease pressure on central banks to maintain higher interest rates to curb inflation. Consequently, a potential interest rate cut undermined the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair gains.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In today's EUR/USD technical outlook for March 1st, the currency pair shows a slight uptick, trading at $1.08140, indicating a modest gain of 0.08% over the past 24 hours. Analyzing the market through a 4-hour chart timeframe provides insights into short-term price movements, aiding traders in decision-making. Key price levels have been identified, with the pivotal point standing at $1.08228, delineating a crucial level for potential reversals or continuations. Notable resistance zones are observed at $1.08554, $1.08877, and $1.09265, while significant support levels are situated at $1.07904, $1.07379, and $1.06977, highlighting areas where price action may encounter barriers or support.

Technical indicators offer further insights into market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 46, indicating a balanced momentum in the market, neither overbought nor oversold. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08251 serves as a dynamic level of support or resistance, reinforcing the prevailing market trend.

Considering these factors collectively, the overall trend for EUR/USD leans towards bearish territory. Traders may find potential opportunities to initiate short positions below the pivot point of $1.08212, with a target take-profit level set at $1.07825. To manage risk effectively, a stop-loss order could be placed at $1.08399, allowing traders to limit potential losses in the event of adverse price movements..

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish US dollar, the gold price (XAU/USD) failed to gain much traction and consolidated below the one-month top of $2,040. The sluggish movement in the gold price was being driven by the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven gold price. In contrast to this, the US dollar is losing its traction following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which opens the door for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is negative for the dollar as it suggests potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and lends some support to the gold price.

Impact of Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Data on Gold Price

On the US front, recent data shows that inflation in January was the lowest in three years, possibly leading to an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, influential Fed members suggest they'll wait until June before cutting rates, which supports higher Treasury bond yields and limits the downside for the US dollar and gold prices. On the data front, the Core US PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose slightly in January, but the yearly rate eased to 2.4%. Market bets still indicate a chance of an interest rate cut in June, backed by comments from Fed officials like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams, though others emphasize the strength of the US economy and see no urgent need for rate cuts.

Therefore, the possibility of an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, along with lower inflation and supportive comments from some Fed officials, could be positive for the gold price.

Impact of Risk-On Market Sentiment on Gold Price amid Stock Market Surge

On the other hand, the risk-on market sentiment was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the gold price. It should be noted that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged to record highs in February as investors welcomed upbeat economic data and awaited further signs of easing inflation, bolstering confidence in the stock market. Therefore, the factors driving the S&P 500's surge, including upbeat economic data and easing inflation concerns, may reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In today's analysis of GOLD's daily technical outlook on March 1st, the market showcases a resilience, with GOLD trading at $2046.40, marking a modest uptick of 0.10% over the last 24 hours. This observation is based on a 4-hour chart timeframe, offering insights into short-term price movements. Critical price levels have been identified to guide traders: the pivotal point is positioned at $2043.00, acting as a focal point for market direction. Immediate resistance barriers are noted at $2050.64, $2057.94, and $2065.44, while crucial support thresholds stand at $2036.85, $2028.10, and $2016.76, delineating potential areas of price reversal or continuation.

Examining technical indicators provides further context. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests a balanced momentum in the market, not excessively overbought or oversold. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2031.05 serves as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the bullish sentiment prevalent in the market.

Considering these factors collectively, the overall trend for GOLD appears bullish. Traders may find opportunities to enter long positions above the pivot point of $2043.00, anticipating further price appreciation. A prudent approach would involve setting a take-profit target at $2056 to capture potential gains, while simultaneously implementing a stop-loss order at $2035 to mitigate downside risk.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite geopolitical tensions, the S&P 500 index maintained its upward rally and surged to a new record high above the 5,104 mark. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the optimism surrounding the US economy and upbeat inflation data. It should be noted that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, came in as expected, showing a modest increase of 0.4% in January. Meanwhile, the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, grew by 2.8% year-over-year, matching market expectations. Therefore, these figures showed that inflation was slowing down, which could lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the future to boost economic growth.

Moreover, the US economy remained strong, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 had their best two-month start since 2019. This, along with positive corporate earnings, boosted investor confidence and pushed the S&P 500 to reach new highs.

Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut Stance and US Economic Data

On the US front, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and US economic data played a major role in boosting the performance of the S&P 500. Notably, the release of the PCE inflation data had been anxiously anticipated by investors throughout the week. However, the released figures indicated that the Federal Reserve might consider rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth. This prospect boosted investor sentiment and contributed to the upward trend of the S&P 500.

On the flip side, Federal Reserve officials like Raphael Bostic and John Williams reiterated their readiness to cut interest rates if needed. This boosted market confidence in potential rate cuts, pushing the S&P 500 higher.

Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact on S&P 500

Despite geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Gaza, the S&P 500 maintained its upward momentum. However, geopolitical unrest, such as the Israel-Gaza conflict, typically introduces uncertainty into financial markets. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 remained strong as Investors focused primarily on domestic economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies, which overshadowed geopolitical concerns in the short term.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

In today's technical outlook for the S&P500 (SPX) on March 1st, the index demonstrates a notable upward movement, currently standing at $5096.28, marking an increase of 0.52% over the past 24 hours. Analyzing the market through a 4-hour chart timeframe provides traders with valuable insights into short-term price dynamics, aiding in strategic decision-making. 

Key price levels have been identified, with the pivotal point situated at $5081.06, serving as a critical level for potential reversals or continuations of the current trend. Notable resistance levels are observed at $5110.04, $5133.95, and $5154.05, indicating areas where price action may encounter obstacles. Conversely, significant support levels are identified at $5058.09, $5032.45, and $5004.14, signifying potential levels of market demand.

Technical indicators offer further guidance to traders, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently at 64, suggesting a bullish momentum in the market. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4987.05 acts as a dynamic level of support, reinforcing the prevailing uptrend.

Considering these factors holistically, the overall trend for the S&P500 leans towards bullish territory. Traders may find potential opportunities to initiate long positions above the entry price of $5070, with a target take-profit level set at $5130. To mitigate risk effectively, a stop-loss order could be placed at $5045, enabling traders to manage potential losses in the event of adverse price movements.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the recent strength of the US dollar and the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rates narrative, gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their upward trajectory and remained steady above the $2,035 level. This rise was attributed to prolonged tensions in the Middle East, which bolstered the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold. In the meantime, cautious sentiment prevails in the market ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could provide cues about the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. This keeps investors cautious, leading them to invest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

In contrast to this, the Fed's hawkish outlook on interest rates was seen as a key factor that capped further gains in the gold price. Furthermore, the second estimate of US GDP growth for Q4 showed a 3.2% rise, slightly lower than the original 3.3%, but still signals economic strength. Hence, the positive US GDP growth indicates a hawkish stance from the Fed regarding rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar gained momentum and remained steady.

Investors are awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Meanwhile, the release of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales, which, along with Fed speak, will also be in the spotlight.

US Federal Reserve Outlook and GDP Data Impact on Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics

On the US front, Federal Reserve officials stressed the need to tackle inflation further, signaling that interest rates may stay higher for longer. New York Fed President John Williams suggested rate cuts might start in 2024, likely in the second half, as inflation hits its 2% target unevenly. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed a preference for patience in policy adjustments, underscoring that the battle against inflation isn't won yet. Meanwhile, Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins indicated a likelihood of rate cuts this year but stressed the importance of data assessment before any policy changes are made.

On the data front, the second estimate of US GDP growth released on Wednesday showed that the economy grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter, just a bit lower than the initial report of 3.3%. This data suggests that the US economy is still doing well overall. However, it reinforced hawkish Fed expectations, which tend to strengthen the US dollar and lower gold prices.

Geopolitical Tensions in Gaza: Impact on Stock Market and Safe-Haven Assets

On the geopolitical front, Israeli airstrikes and shelling hit Nuseirat, Bureij, and Khan Younis camps in Gaza, resulting in at least 30 deaths. According to the Gaza Health Ministry and MSF, Save the Children, a charity organization for children, warns of a slow-motion mass killing of children in Gaza. Six children in north Gaza died from dehydration and malnutrition, with Gaza's healthcare system on the brink of collapse. Samantha Power of USAID stresses the urgent need for more aid to Gaza. Since October 7, Israeli attacks in Gaza have left nearly 30,000 people injured and over 70,000 displaced, while 1,139 have died in Israel.

Therefore, this news is likely to have a negative impact on risk sentiment in the stock market and may boost safe-haven assets like gold due to increased geopolitical tensions and uncertainty.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's price on February 29 edged higher by 0.07%, marking a subtle increase to $2035.805. This incremental rise reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment among investors, as gold continues to be a focal point in the financial markets amidst ongoing global economic uncertainties.

The pivot point for gold is established at $2025.07, providing a baseline for the day's trading dynamics. Resistance levels are identified at $2040.44, $2053.29, and $2065.71, outlining potential ceilings that gold prices might encounter should the upward momentum persist. Conversely, support levels are placed at $2016.41, $2001.46, and $1988.19, indicating key thresholds where buying interest could re-emerge, potentially stabilizing prices.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 suggests a balanced market condition, leaning slightly towards a bullish bias without entering overbought territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 2028.050 closely aligns with the current price, further reinforcing the gold market's current stability and slight bullish inclination.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish US dollar, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its downward performance and remained bearish around the 149.69 level. However, the declines in the pair were exacerbated by the hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata, which bolstered the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributed to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment provided additional support to the safe-haven JPY. On the contrary, the bullish US dollar, supported by upbeat economic data and a hawkish Fed outlook, was seen as a key factor that may help limit the losses of the USD/JPY pair.

Moving ahead, traders seem cautious to place any strong positions ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This US inflation data will influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions, which, in turn, will provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

BOJ Policy Outlook and Economic Indicators in Japan

On the BOJ front, a member named Hajime Takata suggested that Japan's central bank should think about gradually stepping away from its super loose monetary policy since they're close to reaching their inflation goal. This means they might start to adjust things as needed. This indicates a more aggressive stance toward potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions. Furthermore, Japan's finance minister, Masato Kanda, issued a warning about monitoring currency movements closely and being prepared to intervene if volatility escalates.

Therefore, these statements signal a readiness to tighten monetary policy if necessary, which is typically seen as hawkish. This underpinned the Japanese Yen (JPY) and pushed the USD/JPY pair lower.

On the data front, recent reports show that Japanese retail sales rose by 2.3% over the past year until January, which is better than expected. However, industrial production dropped by 7.5% in January alone. This means people are spending more at stores, but factories are making fewer goods, which could affect the economy. The rise in retail sales could strengthen the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the US Dollar (USD) as it suggests increased domestic spending. Conversely, the decline in industrial production may weaken the JPY, as it indicates a potential economic slowdown, impacting the USD/JPY pair.

US Economic Growth and Monetary Policy Developments

On the US front, recent data suggests the economy is performing well. This, coupled with positive comments from Federal Reserve officials, supports the US Dollar. New York Fed President John Williams hinted at potential interest rate hikes this year, depending on how things go, but reaching the 2% inflation goal might take a while. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized caution about inflation and advised patience with monetary policy changes. Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins also hinted at possible policy adjustments later in the year but acknowledged challenges in hitting the inflation target. This boosts the US Dollar and could help the USD/JPY pair ahead of important inflation data.

On the US data front, the latest update on the country's economic growth came out on Wednesday. It showed that the US economy grew by 3.2% in the last quarter of the year. This is slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 3.3% growth, but it still indicates a strong performance.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

On February 29, the USD/JPY experienced a notable decline, dropping by 0.65% to settle at 149.82. This movement underscores a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the pair, possibly influenced by broader market dynamics or shifts in monetary policy expectations.

The pivot point for the day is marked at 150.11, indicating the level from which the USD/JPY began its descent. Resistance levels are identified at 150.83, 151.22, and 151.62, which could potentially cap any upward correction attempts by the pair. On the downside, immediate support is found at 149.70, with further cushions at 149.27 and 148.95, serving as critical junctures that may arrest the pair's decline and offer opportunities for rebound.

Technical indicators reveal a deeper story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, venturing into the oversold territory, suggesting that the pair might be under significant selling pressure but also indicating a possible ground for reversal if market conditions permit. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.31, now above the current price, further highlights the bearish momentum but also marks a potential resistance level for any near-term recoveries.