Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) price managed to halt its downward trend and exhibited a slight recovery on Thursday. It bounced back from a three-week low around the $1,932 mark. The XAU/USD pair is currently trading in the range of $1,937-$1,938, reflecting a modest increase of about 0.20% for the day. Despite this, gold is still facing challenges in gaining strong traction, as various market dynamics continue to influence its performance.

USD Strength and Gold's Response

The broad-based US Dollar is currently showing strength, maintaining a tight range close to its peak since July 7. This has provided some mild support to the gold price, which is quoted in US Dollars. However, the complexity deepens due to the anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will uphold higher interest rates for an extended period. This cautious stance has led traders to avoid making significant bullish bets on gold, thus constraining the potential upward movement of the precious metal.

Meanwhile, the recent ADP National Employment report for Wednesday revealed a strong addition of 324,000 jobs to the US economy in July, surpassing the expected 189,000. This surprising job growth underscores the job market's strength and could protect the economy from the threat of a recession.

Consequently, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to maintain its cautious approach. These prospects have kept US Treasury bond yields higher, supporting the US Dollar and implying that gold is more likely to face downward pressure.

Global Factors and Future Outlook

Investors have seemingly absorbed the recent Fitch downgrade of the US government's credit rating, shifting it from AAA to AA+. In addition to this, China's Caixin Services PMI climbed to 54.1 in July from the previous month's 53.9. Thus, this unexpected positive development has helped improve the overall mood for taking risks globally, leading to a small improvement in the predicted future value of US stocks. Hence, this uptick may reduce the appeal of gold as a safe investment choice.

Focus on US Economic Docket and Beyond

Looking forward, market participants are now focusing on the upcoming US economic schedule, which includes key releases like the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the ISM Services PMI, and Factory Orders. These data points, coupled with changes in US bond yields, are likely to influence the movements of the USD and provide guidance for the direction of the gold price.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold prices made a significant move by breaking through the critical level at $1,945.20 during yesterday's trading session. This sharp reversal has set the stage for further correctional decline, and our analysis suggests that the price is likely to target $1,929.00 and then $1,913.15 as the next key levels.

In the short term, the downward trend appears to be dominant, with the price forming a Double Top pattern, adding more pressure on the downside and potentially pushing the price towards the $1,905.00 mark. However, it is essential to note that if the price manages to breach the resistance at $1,945.20, it could effectively thwart the negative pressure and pave the way for a potential recovery.

For today's trading, we anticipate the price to move within the range of support at $1,915.00 and resistance at $1,945.00. As per our analysis, the expected trend for today remains bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has eased its upward momentum and experienced a marginal loss of 0.03%. However, it has managed to recover some of these losses and has been influenced by notable developments shaping its recent movements. In the midst of these changes, the pair successfully regained the 143.30 level during the Asian session.

However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently surprised the market by deciding to keep its very low-interest rates. They also changed how they control the yield curve, allowing the 10-year yield to go higher, as long as it stays below 1.0% instead of the old limit of 0.5%. This shows that the BoJ is focused on keeping a policy that helps the economy. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also said that having an easy policy is really important to make sure Japan's economy stays stable.

Hence, the BoJ's unexpected decision to maintain low rates and adjust its yield curve strategy could influence the USD/JPY pair. It might impact the yen's strength and the pair's overall movement.

On the flip side, the US economy is sending mixed signals as July's ISM Manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 46.4, it didn't meet expectations, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, in June, the number of job openings (JOLTS) decreased to 9.58 million, raising concerns about the job market.

These economic indicators might affect the Federal Reserve's approach to policies, leading them to be cautious. Consequently, the US Dollar could strengthen, potentially causing the USD/JPY pair to rise.

Upcoming Focus and Future Outlook

Looking forward, traders are awaiting the US ADP Employment Change report, which will likely influence the overall risk sentiment for the USD/JPY pair. However, all eyes are on the US monthly employment report, known as the NFP report, which is sure to capture the market's attention.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has shown a sustained upward trend in early trading today, supported by the short-term upward correctional trend and the presence of a trend line. Additionally, trading above the 50-day SMA and positive signals from the RSI, despite reaching overbought levels, have further bolstered the bullish sentiment.

Considering these factors, we anticipate that the USD/JPY pair will continue to gain momentum, with the next key target being the pivotal resistance level of 145.00.

Our price prediction for today suggests a trading range between the support level of 141.50 and the resistance level of 145.00, indicating potential opportunities for bullish moves.

Traders are advised to closely monitor the price action and consider the bullish trend in their trading strategies for the USD/JPY pair. However, it is essential to exercise caution and implement risk management practices, given the dynamic nature of the market.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/CAD currency pair showed positive momentum for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. In the Asian session, it briefly dipped to around 1.3260 but quickly recovered, moving closer to the three-week high it reached the day before. Despite the upward trend, bullish traders are exercising caution and waiting for sustained strength above the key 1.3300 level before considering further upward moves. However, this cautious approach reflects the market's desire for more confirmation of the pair's strength before committing to higher positions.

Fed's Rate Hike Expectations Support US Dollar Amid Credit Rating Downgrade

Despite a credit rating downgrade of the US government's credit to AA+ from AAA by Fitch, the US Dollar (USD) is still strong. This is because the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points one more time. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy needs to slow down and the job market needs to weaken for inflation to return to the 2% target. However, the stronger US economic data supporting the chance of more rate hikes adds to the positive feeling about the USD.

Global Risk Sentiment Weighs on Equity Markets, Benefits Safe-Haven USD

Moreover, the USD/CAD currency pair is getting further support as global risk sentiment weakens, and investors turn to the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. However, the surge in Crude Oil prices, hitting the highest level since April 17, supports the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) and may hold back aggressive buying of the USD/CAD pair. This could limit aggressive buying of the USD/CAD pair. Although, the decrease in US oil inventories helps balance demand worries and keeps supporting Oil prices, adding to the strength of the Canadian Dollar.

Traders should pay close attention to short-term opportunities and keep an eye on the monthly employment reports (NFP report) from the US and Canada, scheduled for release on Friday. These reports can greatly influence the movement of the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

USD/CAD advanced during intraday trading, subsequently testing the crucial resistance level at 1.3300. Additionally, it approached the resistance of the 50-day SMA and tested the short-term downward secondary trend line. The RSI displayed negative signals after entering the overbought zone.

Based on these factors, we anticipate the pair to retrace lower, with a target towards the initial support at 1.3200, under the condition that the resistance at 1.3300 remains intact.

The projected trading range for today lies between the support level of 1.3200 and the resistance level of 1.3300.

Our price prediction for today suggests a likely bullish trend. Traders are advised to closely monitor the price action and consider this bullish outlook when planning their trading strategies for USD/CAD. However, prudent risk management practices should be implemented due to the dynamic nature of the market. 

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its losing streak and experienced selling pressure as it approached the psychological resistance level of 1.1000 during the Asian session. Investors became cautious ahead of the release of United States labor market data, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. Moreover, the significant losses in S&P500 futures added to the overall cautious sentiment among investors. This apprehensive sentiment can be attributed to the recent downgrade of the United States economy by credit rating firm FITCH from 'AAA' to 'AA+'

US Dollar Index Bounces Back Despite Weak Economic Indicators

Despite the downgrade in the US economy, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced back after a slight dip and reached around 102.00. This surprising recovery happened even though there were disappointing economic data. US Job Openings data, which came in at 9.582 million, fell short of the previous release of 9.62 million, suggesting a potential slowdown in hiring. Furthermore, the US Manufacturing PMI contracted for the ninth month in a row, recording 46.4, lower than the expected 46.8. However, Factory Orders performed better than expected at 47.3, surpassing the forecasted 44.0.

Hence, the disappointing US economic data and the surprising rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) may put downward pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Eyes on US Employment Data and Eurozone Inflationary Pressures

Looking forward to this Wednesday, the spotlight is on the US Employment data from ADP. Experts anticipate a slower increase of 188,000 private payrolls following June's surprising surge of 497,000 new jobs. On the other side, the Eurozone witnessed a 0.1% drop in inflation for July. However, the impressive GDP performance during the April-June quarter may prompt the ECB to consider raising interest rates.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the Retail Sales data later this week, as strong consumer spending momentum could fuel hawkish expectations for the ECB. All these factors will be closely monitored as they impact the global financial landscape.

Thus, the US Employment data and potential interest rate changes by the ECB may influence the EUR/USD currency pair, with positive US data possibly strengthening the USD against the EUR.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In a captivating turn of events, EUR/USD has made a remarkable rebound, finding sturdy support in the medium-term upward trend line and the 50-day SMA. This surge in positive momentum has lifted the pair to new heights in early trading today, following its recent pursuit to discover a bottom.

Adding to the thrill, the RSI's favorable signals, after a daring venture into oversold territory, are now doubling down on the positive pressures, setting the stage for an exhilarating ride in the upcoming trading sessions.

As we buckle up for this thrilling journey, all eyes are on the target - the initial resistance at 1.1130. But, hold on tight, as this thrilling ascent is contingent upon the pivotal support level of 1.0970 holding firm.

The adventure doesn't end there! The projected trading range for today promises heart-racing action between the support level of 1.0865 and the resistance level of 1.1130.

Today's price prediction reads like a thrilling plot twist - it leans bullish! Traders are in for an adrenaline-pumping experience as they closely observe the price action and devise their trading strategies for EUR/USD.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is still facing challenges as it struggles to maintain its position above the 1.1000 mark on Tuesday. However, this decline can be attributed to fresh hints from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde about a possible pause in interest rate hikes in September. Although the ECB recently raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, there are signs of easing inflationary pressures and growing concerns about a recession.

Market players are anxiously waiting for the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, as it could provide fresh insights and influence the market's direction. The pair's downward trend continues, keeping the market uncertain.

Mixed Economic Data from Europe and the US Impact EUR/USD

Furthermore, the previosly released economic data from Europe and the US is also impacting the EUR/USD pair. In the Eurozone, the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July rose by 5.5% YoY and 5.3% for the headline CPI. In the meantime, the flash Q2 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. German Retail Sales for June increased by 1.6% YoY, but the monthly figure fell by -0.8%, worse than expected.

In the US, the PCE Price Index for June grew at a slower rate of 3% compared to May's 3.8%. Despite these mixed indicators, the US Dollar remains strong, which was seen as another key factor that kept the EUR/USD currency pair under pressure.

Market Focus on Upcoming Economic Data

Looking forward, the market participants are monitoring the global Manufacturing PMI data and the German Unemployment rate for June. However, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for Friday, will be a significant highlight of the week.

The focus on these crucial economic data releases in both the US and Europe will put the data-dependent approach of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) to the test when making decisions on interest rates.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently at an intriguing juncture as it approaches the crucial resistance level at 1.1055. Interestingly, we observe a calm decline from this resistance point, and the pair is now hovering near the primary support line of a bullish channel.

Adding to the excitement, the chart reveals the price staying below the neckline of a double top pattern, while the EMA50 exerts its influence with negative pressure. Moreover, the stochastic indicator is signaling a negative overlap, adding further intrigue to the mix.

In light of these compelling factors, our forecast leans towards a bearish bias in the upcoming trading sessions. This prompts us to set our initial targets on breaking the support line of the bullish channel.

Should this support be breached, it may potentially pave the way for further declines, with potential targets at 1.0935, followed by 1.0835 once the previous level is surpassed.

However, we must remain alert to the possibility of a game-changer, as breaching the 1.1055 resistance level would invalidate the bearish scenario, leading the price to potentially resume its main bullish trajectory, and setting sights on the 1.1170 areas as the initial target.

Today's trading session promises excitement within the range of 1.0920 support and 1.1070 resistance, keeping traders on their toes and providing ample opportunities for strategic moves.

Daily Price Outlook

The safe-haven gold price has faced challenges lately, recording its first daily loss in three days. However, this decline can be attributed to the stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury bond yields, which have put pressure on the precious metal. Moreover, several factors have contributed to the uncertainty in the market, such as disappointing economic data from China, concerns about escalating tensions between the US and China, and the anticipation surrounding US economic indicators. These combined elements have led to challenges for gold, affecting its performance in the market.

US Dollar Strength and US-China Tensions Impact Gold Price

The US Dollar has surged to a three-week high recently due to hawkish statements from a Federal Reserve official and worries surrounding US-China relations. Adding to the geopolitical tensions, Beijing's decision to restrict drone exports in response to US tech and trade war strategies, citing "national security," has further exacerbated the situation.

As a result, the strength of the US Dollar and the fear of potential conflicts between the two economic powerhouses have impacted the price of gold. Consequently, gold has lost momentum and retreated to approximately $1,955 as investors seek refuge in the US Dollar amid the uncertain global landscape.

Economic Data and US Federal Reserve's Stance Influence Gold Price

Apart from this, the recent economic data releases from China and the United States have influenced the sentiment in the gold market. The lower-than-expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July in China, the lowest since January, has affected the potential for precious metals, as China is a major gold consumer.

On the other hand, if the US economy shows signs of slowing down, the Federal Reserve might change its plan to increase interest rates. This could limit the growth of the US Dollar and help support the price of gold. These factors are shaping how the gold market behaves right now.

Moreover, the ongoing trade war tensions between the US and China, specifically surrounding technology access, have added to the uncertainty in the market. China's announcement of export restrictions on certain drones and drone-related equipment to the US in September, citing "national security and interests," has heightened concerns among investors.

Moving on, market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, as they could provide further understandings into the direction of the gold price.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold price displayed a notable upswing in the preceding session, edging closer to our anticipated target at $1,977.25. Subsequently, a mild retracement occurred, testing the EMA50, influenced by a negative stochastic momentum.

Conversely, a breach of the support at $1,945.20 would halt the envisioned upward movement, redirecting the price towards a corrective bearish trajectory, with potential objectives at $1,929.00 and $1,913.15.

In today's trading, the projected trading range is positioned between the support at $1,945.00 and the resistance at $1,977.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold is facing challenges as it is trading at 1991 with -0.40% loss today. The US economy's resilience, as indicated by a positive GDP report, has increased the likelihood of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near future, potentially in September or November. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for a slowdown in the economy and a weaker labor market to achieve the 2% inflation target.

These factors have led to higher US Treasury bond yields, supporting the greenback, which, in turn, exerts pressure on Gold as a USD-denominated commodity. Additionally, other major central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are also adopting a more hawkish stance due to persistent price pressures.

While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is moving away from massive monetary stimulus, speculations about the Fed reaching the end of its aggressive rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s might limit potential losses for Gold.

 The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE Price Index rose 3.0% over twelve months, the smallest gain since March 2021. The Core PCE Price Index (excluding food and energy) rose 4.1% YoY, the smallest increase since September 2021. This suggests easing inflationary pressures, which may lead the Fed to soften its hawkish stance, supporting potential dip-buying in Gold.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price saw an upward bounce from the 1945.20 level in recent sessions, testing the resistance at the EMA50, which is currently at $1960.00. A potential break above this level could pave the way for a move towards the next main target at $1977.25.

Hence, a bullish trend is expected on an intraday basis, contingent upon the price remaining stable above $1945.20. However, a break below this level would introduce negative factors, potentially leading to further declines towards $1929.00 and subsequently $1913.15.

The projected trading range for today lies between the support level of $1945.00 and the resistance level of $1977.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair recovers from recent losses, breaking a three-day losing streak. The US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure data had put pressure on the Australian dollar, but positive developments in China's motivation plan provide momentum.

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday for further direction. Currently, the pair is up 0.48% for the day, trading near 0.6681.

Contrary to the market forecast of 3.1%, the Personal Consumption Expenses (PCE) Price Index for June declined to 3% from May's 3.8%. The Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, came in at 4.1% annually, lower than the projected 4.2% and down from 4.6% in May.

Additionally, China's State Council Information Office announces that Li Chunlin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a press conference with other representatives to announce measures to boost consumption.

This development could support the Australian Dollar (AUD), acting as a broker for China, and contribute to increased household demand amid a slow post-COVID recovery.

The AUD/USD pair's recovery is approaching the 0.6700 level, driven by stimulus hopes and overlooking mixed China PMI and Aussie inflation clues. On Monday, the pair recorded its first daily gains in four days, rebounding from three-week lows and trading slightly higher around 0.6670.

Positive cues from China's official activity statistics and Australian inflation signals are influencing the market's slightly positive sentiment and the decline of the US Dollar.

Despite China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.3, Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.5.

Australia's TD Securities Inflation increased in July from 0.1% to 0.8% MoM, but annual statistics decreased from 5.7% in June to 5.4% in July. In contrast, Australia's Private Sector Credit in June eased to 0.2% and 5.5% on a MoM and YoY basis, respectively, down from 0.4% and 6.2% in May.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair faced a brief dip below the 0.6665 level but has since shown signs of recovery, prompting a positive start to the day and signaling a potential bullish bias in the upcoming sessions. The pair is expected to aim for the 0.6780 level in the short term.

The bullish trend is supported by the positive stance of the stochastic indicator. However, it is crucial to monitor the 0.6665 level, as a break below it and sustained trading below this point could halt the anticipated rise and lead to further losses.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to be between the support level at 0.6630 and the resistance level at 0.6750.

Overall, the outlook suggests a bullish trend for today's session, but cautious observation of key levels is essential in navigating potential market movements.

Daily Price Outlook

During the early Asian session on Monday, the EUR/USD pair experienced some buying interest, leading to a slight positive movement near 1.1025. This recovery comes after two weeks of losses and was supported by softer US data, as well as recent remarks from ECB officials and Federal Reserve policymakers.

ECB President Christine Lagarde referred to the recent economic output figures from France, Germany, and Spain as "quite optimistic" in an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro over the weekend.

Joachim Nagel, president of the Bundesbank of Germany and an ECB Governing Council member, also supported hawkish ECB policies, citing persistent core inflation and advocating for higher interest rates to be maintained for a longer period.

Conversely, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed concerns about job losses and weaker growth, while acknowledging the inflation forecast. He also questioned the central bank's aggressive monetary tightening program to control price increases.

News reports suggesting further Chinese stimulus are putting pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the EUR/USD pair to recover from a three-week low on Friday, despite recent losses.

The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, showed weaker-than-expected readings for June, easing to 4.1% YoY, below the predicted 4.2% and the previous 4.6%.

Additionally, Personal Income decreased to 0.3%, falling short of the expected 0.5% and previous readings, while Personal Spending increased by 0.5%, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% and the earlier 0.1%. Moreover, the final readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July declined from the initial estimate of 72.6 to 71.6, and the University of Michigan's (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation expectations also decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has approached a significant resistance level at 1.1055 and is now experiencing a gradual decline, moving closer to the main bullish channel's support line. Notably, the price remains below the neckline of a double top pattern, which is visible on the chart.

Additionally, the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price, and the stochastic indicator is currently showing negative overlap.

Considering these factors, it is prudent to adopt a bearish bias for the upcoming sessions. The initial targets for the bearish scenario involve breaking below the bullish channel's support line, potentially leading to further declines towards 1.0935 and 1.0835 levels upon surpassing the previous level of support.

However, a breach of the key resistance level at 1.1055 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a potential resumption of the main bullish trend, with potential targets around the 1.1170 areas initially.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to lie between the support level at 1.0920 and the resistance level at 1.1070.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at around 1.2788, which is near a two-week low. It has decreased by -0.03% in the past 24 hours as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to release their preferred inflation gauge. The recent drop in the Cable pair is due to the US Dollar's strong rally, driven by positive economic data. Additionally, concerns about the Bank of England's rate hike plans are impacting the Pound Sterling's price.

One significant factor affecting the GBP/USD pair is the news about British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's advisers expressing their dissatisfaction with the BoE's rate hike plans. They are worried that an aggressive rate hike trajectory could lead to an economic slowdown or even a recession, which puts additional pressure on the Pound.

Meanwhile, the US economic data has been mostly positive, which is boosting the US Dollar. The preliminary readings of the US GDP Annualized for Q2 surpassed expectations, indicating a growth rate of 2.4% compared to the previous 2.0%. Additionally, the US Durable Goods Orders for June jumped by 4.7%, far exceeding the market forecast of 1.0%. The decrease in Initial Jobless Claims also signals a strong labor market.

Despite the positive data, concerns about fresh US-China tensions remain. The White House is prepared to prevent the Hong Kong Leader from attending a key economic summit, which could add uncertainty to the market.

Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair may receive some support from the retreat of the US Dollar. However, ongoing fears about the UK economy and the BoE's rate hike plans could limit the pair's upside momentum. The focus is now on the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for June by the Federal Reserve. If this inflation gauge is lower than the previous reading of 4.6%, it could relieve GBP/USD.

 GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

During yesterday's evening, the GBPUSD pair displayed significant bearish movement, breaking below the support line of the previously established bullish channel. Upon closer analysis of the chart, it becomes evident that the price has formed a double top pattern, signaling a potential decline in the upcoming trading sessions.

This bearish correction aligns with the longer-term perspective, considering the bullish wave measured from 1.2308 to 1.3142.

As such, we anticipate witnessing negative trades in the near future, with the next target set at 1.2725. However, it is essential to keep in mind that a breach of the 1.2825 level will halt the expected decline and pave the way for the price to resume the main bullish trend.

For today's trading range, we expect support at 1.2710 and resistance at 1.2880. Traders are advised to closely monitor price movements as the pair navigates this bearish correction phase.