Daily Price Outlook

The USD/CAD currency pair continued its decline during European trading on Tuesday. This downward trend was primarily triggered by a correction in the US Dollar (USD), which had reached a one-month low. However, several factors might curb the extent of the USD's decline. Notably, the rise in US Treasury bond yields is among these factors. Additionally, the escalating tensions in the Middle East could provide some support for the USD. At present, the pair is trading at around 1.3674, marking a 0.12% decrease for the day.

US Interest Rate Hike Speculations and Insights from Federal Reserve Officials

It's worth noting that, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate hike in the US in November is quite low. However, the odds of a rate increase in January 2024 remain above 30%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is presently in a blackout period, meaning they are refraining from publicly discussing their intentions.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic has expressed his belief that the US central bank won't reduce interest rates before the middle of next year. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has consistently advocated for maintaining current interest rates. Conversely, Loretta Mester, the President of the Cleveland Fed, holds the view that the US central bank is either at or very close to the peak of the current cycle of interest rate increases. These remarks provide valuable insights into the direction of US monetary policy.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Oil Prices

Conversely, investors are closely monitoring the Bank of Canada's upcoming decision regarding interest rates, scheduled for Wednesday. It's widely expected that the bank will maintain the interest rate at 5% for the remainder of this year, with a forecast of a rate cut in the second quarter of 2024.

On a different note, a potential decline in oil prices could exert downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, referred to as the Loonie. This is because Canada plays a significant role as a major oil supplier to the United States. Such a development could significantly impact the strength of the currency.

Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events to Monitor in the US and Canada

Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on key economic indicators. These include the US S&P Global PMI and the Canadian New Housing Price Index for September, providing insights. Wednesday brings the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and the pivotal US Q3 GDP estimate. On Friday, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) will offer crucial information about inflation.

On October 24, the USD/CAD trading pair showcases a nuanced narrative, offering traders and analysts alike a glimpse into its current performance and potential future movements. At a present value of 1.36793, the pair has seen a modest decline of 0.10% over the last 24 hours. A look at the 4-hour (4H) chart, a favored perspective among traders for its balance between short-term movements and overarching trends, yields some pivotal insights.

The suite of technical indicators brings forth added clarity. With the RSI valued at 46, we're currently in a neutral zone. Traditionally, values over 70 are interpreted as overbought, while those below 30 indicate oversold conditions. The RSI's sub-50 position suggests a slight bearish sentiment in the market.

The MACD, a momentum-centric indicator, currently reads at -0.00062, juxtaposed against its Signal line at 0.00025. When the MACD line ventures above the signal line, it typically indicates upward momentum. However, in our present configuration, with the MACD line below the signal line, it suggests potential downward momentum.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 1.3676. As the USD/CAD's price hovers slightly above this EMA, it suggests a tentative bullish short-term trend, although it's precariously close.

In terms of chart patterns, while the 4H chart remains dynamic, no dominant configurations, such as the Symmetrical Triangle or upward channels, have emerged at this juncture. Continuous vigilance is paramount to spot emergent patterns.

Conclusion:

In summation, the overarching sentiment for USD/CAD appears to be bearish, especially if levels dip below the 1.36890 mark. Short-term forecasts suggest the potential for the pair to approach and test the immediate resistance level of 1.3770 in the upcoming sessions. 

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Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to gain momentum, rising to around $1,980 on Tuesday. This surge is largely attributed to the weakening of the US Dollar (USD), driven by lower US Treasury yields. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have played a significant role in supporting the gold price. Although, the recent efforts by diplomats to ease tensions between Israel and Hamas have increased investors' willingness to take risks, potentially causing a temporary drop in gold prices.

US Dollar Weakens and Interest Rates Uncertain

It's worth noting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a four-day consecutive decline, hovering around 105.50. However, this drop can be tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which initially surged to 5.02% but later retreated to 4.84%. If this downward trend persists, the US Dollar may continue to weaken, potentially promoting a rise in Gold prices up to $2,000.

Several key figures within the Federal Reserve, such as Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker, and Loretta Mester, have expressed doubts about reducing interest rates in the near future. They prefer to maintain the current rates. Furthermore, the market doesn't anticipate an interest rate hike in November, but the likelihood of one occurring in January 2024 remains quite significant, standing at over 30%.

China's Debt Plans, US-China Talks, and Data-Filled Week

Furthermore, the news of China's intention to issue a bit over 1 trillion yuan in additional government debt has fostered a more positive sentiment among investors. Additionally, the progress in the initial economic discussions between the US and China has boosted the overall market outlook. Consequently, the US Dollar, typically a safe haven for investors, is not in as high demand, leading to an increase in the price of Gold.

Looking forward, investors will have a busy week ahead with a lot of data to watch. On Tuesday, their attention will be focused on the US S&P Global PMI. Then, on Thursday, all eyes will be on the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Finally, the week concludes with a spotlight on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

As of October 24, Gold's market landscape presents a complex array of signals for the discerning analyst. Priced at 1976.10, the precious metal has seen an incremental rise of 0.14% over the past 24 hours. The 4H chart, a timeframe favored by many traders for its balance between short-term responsiveness and noise filtering, provides several key insights.

Central to our analysis is the Pivot Point, a crucial price level to observe, currently at $1963.12. From this juncture, Gold encounters a layered resistance structure: Immediate resistance is at $2016.85, followed by $2051.94 and then $2104.57. Conversely, in the face of bearish tendencies, immediate support is pinpointed at $1926.93, with further levels at $1873.20 and $1838.12.

The technical indicators offer a deeper comprehension. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, currently stands at 62. Traditionally, values above 70 are deemed overbought, and those below 30, oversold. With the RSI surpassing the 50-mark, this suggests a bullish sentiment in the market.

Our MACD values, a further momentum metric, are compelling. The MACD is at -2.79 while the Signal sits at 11.57. Typically, an MACD line above the signal line indicates upward momentum, and the opposite holds true for a potential downward shift. In this instance, the MACD line being beneath the signal line hints at a potential downward trajectory.

The 50 EMA, a favored metric for short-term trends, is currently at 1940.29. With Gold's price exceeding this mark, it suggests a short-term bullish trend.

Regarding chart patterns, the current 4H chart doesn't display dominant patterns like the Symmetrical Triangle or an upward channel. However, patterns can form and fade swiftly, necessitating vigilant observation.

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Daily Price Outlook

gains for the second consecutive day. However, the bearish US dollar, pressured by the lower US Treasury yields, was seen as one of the key factor that kept the AUD/USD currency pair higher. Furthermore the risk-on market sentiment, backed by the easing tension in the Middle east, was seen as a another key factor that boosted the AUD/USD currency pair.

Australia's Economic Challenges and the Impact on AUDUSD

According to the latest update, Australia's initial S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for October indicates a minor slowdown. This suggests that both the manufacturing and services sectors may not be performing as robustly as expected. Financial markets are speculating that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could consider adopting a more stringent monetary policy. RBA Governor Michele Bullock has mentioned that if inflation remains persistently higher than their projections, the RBA stands ready to take necessary measures to address the situation.

According to the latest data released on Tuesday, the preliminary figures for Australia's services sector in October, as measured by the S&P Global Australian Services PMI, declined from 51.8 in September to 47.6. Likewise, the Manufacturing PMI saw a slight drop from 48.7 in the previous report to 48.0 this time. Furthermore, the Composite Index, which combines both of these indicators, registered a reading of 47.3, down from 51.5 in the prior report. These numbers indicate the possibility of economic challenges ahead for Australia.

Hence, the reports of a slowdown in Australia's economic indicators, including the Services and Manufacturing PMI, could exert downward pressure on the AUD/USD currency pair.

Impact of Recent Economic Developments on the AUDUSD Currency Pair

It's worth noting that the United States and China recently held their inaugural official meeting on economic matters, known as the Economic Working Group. In this forum, they engage in discussions concerning economic policies and various related issues. The U.S. Treasury Department has stated that the two nations had a productive and substantial conversation regarding the state of their domestic and global economies.

In China, there are reports indicating that they are considering permitting an additional 1 trillion yuan in government borrowing to stimulate their economy. They plan to use this money to invest more in constructing infrastructure such as roads and bridges to jumpstart economic growth. The decision-makers, known as the standing committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), are expected to approve this extra debt on the final day of their meeting.

The US Dollar Index, which gauges the dollar's value in comparison to other currencies, appears to be on a downward trend for the fourth consecutive day. This could be attributed to the recent decline in US Treasury yields, which had previously reached their highest level since 2007. When yields decrease, it can make the US dollar less appealing to investors.

Hence, the positive outcome of economic discussions between the US and China, as well as China's intentions for increased infrastructure spending, may have a positive impact on the AUD/USD pair. Further, the weakening US Dollar Index could further bolster the Australian dollar.

As we approach the close of October 24, the AUD/USD pair offers a compelling narrative for investors and traders. Currently priced at 0.63572, the Australian Dollar has experienced an uplift of 0.33% against the US Dollar over the last 24 hours. The 4-hour (4H) chart, revered by many for its equilibrium between short-term volatility and overarching trend identification, elucidates several pivotal factors.

The heart of our examination revolves around the Pivot Point, stationed at 0.6336. From this fulcrum, the AUD/USD showcases a multi-tiered resistance structure: The immediate resistance awaits at 0.6373, followed closely by 0.6432, and then 0.6470. In the face of downward pressures, support for the pair lies at 0.6274, with subsequent bastions at 0.6236 and 0.6178.

Delving into our technical indicators, the RSI, or Relative Strength Index, registers at 58. Historically, any reading surpassing 70 signifies overbought conditions, while figures below 30 indicate oversold territories. Given the RSI's positioning above 50, we discern a prevailing bullish sentiment.

In the realm of momentum, our MACD metrics are of particular note. The MACD reads 0.0006, juxtaposed against its Signal line at 0.0002. Conventionally, a MACD line breaching above its Signal counterpart heralds positive momentum, and our current setup confirms this upward trajectory.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at 0.6340. With the AUD/USD pair's price eclipsing this average, it's indicative of a short-term bullish trend.

In terms of chart patterns, while the 4H chart can host a myriad of configurations, no dominant patterns such as Symmetrical Triangles or upward channels are apparent currently. However, the dynamic nature of financial charts necessitates regular monitoring for emergent patterns.

Conclusion:

In summation, the overarching trend for AUD/USD is bullish, especially if it remains anchored above the 0.6336 threshold. In the ensuing trading sessions, given the pair's technical posture, we anticipate AUD/USD to challenge the immediate resistance mark of 0.6373.

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Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, which typically lead to increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, the price of gold (XAU/USD) ended its winning streak and is currently trading lower at around $1,970 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday. However, this decline can be attributed to a rebound in the US Dollar, which is receiving support from improved US Treasury yields.

US Dollar Gains and Fed's Cautious Stance

It's worth noting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a resurgence, currently trading at around 106.30. This comeback can be attributed to the positive movement in US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which currently stands at 4.98%, reflecting a 1.30% increase at the moment. The US Dollar is also receiving a boost from some robust US economic data released last week. The latest job data indicates a strong economy, with the lowest Weekly Initial Jobless Claims since January, signifying a robust job market.

In contrast to this, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates until at least the middle of next year. Furthermore, Patrick Harker, the President of the Philadelphia Fed, has consistently supported for maintaining interest rates at their current levels without any adjustments.

On the Cleveland Fed front, Loretta Mester noted that the Fed might have completed its rate hikes or is, at the very least, approaching the peak in this rate hike cycle. However, Mester also admitted that the data unveiled last week might have an effect on the central bank's future decisions about monetary policy.

In a recent statement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank doesn't have any immediate intentions to increase interest rates. However, he openly acknowledged that they might think about tightening monetary policy even more if they spot more signs of economic growth.

Hence, the dovish comments from Fed officials, such as Loretta Mester and Jerome Powell's emphasis on avoiding immediate rate hikes, were considered one of the key factors that could potentially limit further gains in the US dollar.

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Outlook

Elsewhere, escalating tensions in the Middle East could potentially drive up the prices of safe-haven assets, such as gold. It's worth noting that concerns regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating into a broader Middle East conflict have increased, prompting warnings from Washington about significant risks to US interests in the region. Therefore, this uncertainty may lead investors to seek the safety of gold as a hedge against geopolitical instability.

Looking forward, investors will closely watch the US S&P Global PMI on Tuesday and the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. These important indicators could greatly influence market sentiment and offer valuable insights into the overall US economy.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As markets transition into the final week of October, gold's pricing dynamics reveal intriguing patterns worth decoding for potential investors. At the outset, the precious metal's current trading price stands at $1973.69, reflecting a modest decline of 0.34%. Based on a 4-hour chart analysis, several key levels and technical indicators present themselves, offering hints about gold's prospective trajectory.

The pivot point for gold, a key technical tool used by traders to gauge potential price movements, is currently pegged at $1954. Climbing the ladder, gold faces its first resistance level at $1982.. Should bullish sentiments prevail, the subsequent resistances are identified at $2001 and $2020. Conversely, in a more bearish scenario, immediate support is positioned at $1929, followed by the next support tiers at $1909 and $1885.

Shifting the lens to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 65. Traditionally, an RSI reading above 70 is indicative of overbought conditions, suggesting that the asset might be poised for a potential pullback. Gold's current RSI, although below this threshold, is edging closer to the overbought territory, hinting at a strong bullish sentiment but also cautioning traders of possible future corrections.

Further insights are provided by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. With an MACD value of -1.662 and a signal value of 15.582, the MACD line's position below the signal line flags potential bearish momentum in the short term. This divergence warrants attention as it can often presage directional shifts in price.

Lastly, gold's price vis-à-vis the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) paints a bullish picture. With the 50 EMA valued at $1929.67, and gold trading substantially above this mark, the prevailing trend leans bullish in the short term. Historically, prices above the 50 EMA often suggest sustained upward momentum, making it a positive sign for gold bulls.

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The EUR/USD pair couldn't break its downward trend and continued to fall in the early European session on Monday. It slipped below the psychologically important 1.0600 level, mainly due to the strengthening US dollar. It's currently trading around 1.0586, marking a 0.07% loss for the day. However, this decline is linked to strong economic data from the United States and robust US Treasury yields, both of which are boosting the US Dollar (USD) and causing losses in the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have indicated that interest rates will remain unchanged at their November meeting. Market participants are now awaiting data releases from both the Eurozone and the US in anticipation of the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

Economic Insights and Geopolitical Concerns for the Euro

It's important to mention that economists surveyed by Reuters believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) has completed its interest rate hikes and isn't anticipated to implement any rate cuts until at least July 2024. This decision is driven by the ongoing efforts to combat high inflation.

Furthermore, the European Union is considering an extension of the cap on gas prices imposed back in February. However, this decision is mainly driven by concerns over the potential increase in gas prices during the upcoming winter, primarily due to the Middle East crisis and the disruption of a Baltic pipeline. Hence, these concerns will likely exert downward pressure on the Euro.

Moreover, ongoing tensions in the Middle East may impact the market. If these uncertainties grow, it could make investors less interested in the riskier currency like Euro.

Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates

Moreover, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, along with numerous Fed officials, has indicated that they are unlikely to make any changes to interest rates during their November meeting. Powell's intention is to temporarily halt the rate hikes, closely monitoring the economy's performance in the coming months. He did mention that they might consider tightening monetary policy more if they see strong economic growth or if the job market stops improving.

In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that it's unlikely the US central bank will lower rates before the middle of next year. Fed Philadelphia President Patrick Harker is sticking to his preference for keeping interest rates where they are. Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester thinks they might have reached the peak of the rate hike cycle. Consequently, it appears that the Federal Reserve is currently in a holding pattern with regards to interest rates.

Therefore, the news of the Fed's cautious approach to interest rates has the potential to weaken the US dollar. This, in turn, could make the EUR/USD pair more appealing to investors, potentially resulting in an increase in its value.

In the sphere of foreign exchange, the EUR/USD remains one of the most scrutinized currency pairs, offering a window into the dynamics between two of the world's most significant economies. As of today, the pair is trading at 1.0575, marking a decrease of 0.14%. Observations from a 4-hour chart provide a comprehensive understanding of its potential trajectory.

The fulcrum of our analysis, the pivot point, is placed at 1.0561. Above this, the immediate resistance level is at 1.0601. If the currency pair gains traction, subsequent resistances are seen at 1.0638 and 1.0672. In contrast, if the bears exert pressure, an immediate floor is present at 1.0524, followed by support levels at 1.0491 and 1.0450.

Turning our attention to the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51. Typically, an RSI above 70 is indicative of overbought conditions, whereas a reading below 30 flags oversold territory. An RSI hovering around the midpoint of 50 suggests a relatively balanced market sentiment, with a slight bullish inclination given its position just above 50.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), another pivotal indicator, reports a value of 0.00009 with its signal line at 0.00074. While the MACD line currently lies below the signal line, it's crucial to monitor this relationship closely as a potential crossover could hint at shifting momentum.

Lastly, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is currently at 1.0566, just below the current trading price. This close alignment indicates a potential tussle between buyers and sellers, with neither side holding a decisive edge at the moment.

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During Monday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum and lost some of its gains, hovering around the 1.2160 mark. However, this decline followed the release of discouraging United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for September last Friday. Moreover, the robust US Dollar has exerted significant pressure on the GBP/USD currency pair. However, the US dollar was bolstered by the positive performance of US Treasury yields.

UK Retail Sales Decline Sparks Concerns About Inflation

It's worth noting that the monthly UK retail sales figures revealed a 0.9% decline, which came as a surprise compared to the anticipated 0.1% decrease. This followed a modest 0.4% increase in August. On an annual basis, sales were down by 1.0%, contrary to expert predictions.

However, the decline in retail sales indicates that consumers are experiencing financial pressure due to higher prices and increased borrowing costs. Thereby, this notable decrease in consumer spending is expected to impact inflation perceptions. Therefore, there is speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) might choose to keep the current interest rates at 5.25% during their November meeting.

US Dollar Strength and Fed's Stance Impacting GBP/USD Pair

Moreover, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to recover its recent losses and gained some traction, possibly due to robust economic data coming from the United States. Further, the strong performance of US Treasury yields is providing a lift to the US Dollar (USD), with the 10-year US Treasury yield presently standing at 4.96%, up by 0.92% at this time. Consequently, the strong US dollar is considered one of the primary factors restraining the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, on Thursday, indicated that the central bank does not have immediate intentions to raise interest rates, which provided a lift to the GBP/USD pair. Powell also noted that they may need to consider tightening monetary policy further if they observe additional signs of economic growth or if the job market ceases to improve.

On Friday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he anticipates the US central bank will not lower interest rates until the middle of next year. Additionally, Fed Philadelphia President Patrick Harker voiced his preference for maintaining the current interest rates.

Furthermore, Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester indicated that the US central bank might have reached the peak of the rate hike cycle but acknowledged that recent data could influence their future policy decisions.

As a result, the dovish stance taken by the Fed was regarded as the primary factor limiting the upward momentum of the US dollar and contributing to the gains in GBP/USD.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

As global markets grapple with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, the GBP/USD currency pair offers a compelling narrative for investors and traders alike. As of the latest data, the pair stands at 1.21465, registering a slight decline of 0.10%. Analyzing the 4-hour chart provides a more granular perspective on the potential paths the currency pair might traverse in the near future.

Central to this analysis is the pivot point, currently situated at 1.2178. This metric serves as a barometer for potential bullish or bearish shifts. On the upside, GBP/USD faces immediate resistance at 1.2217. If bullish momentum persists, traders could eye the subsequent resistance levels of 1.2274 and 1.2334. Conversely, should the pair come under selling pressure, immediate support lies at 1.2125, with deeper supports at 1.2068 and 1.2020, respectively.

Diving deeper into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD reads at 47. While the 50-mark often demarcates bullish from bearish sentiment, the current RSI suggests a neutral stance with a slight bearish lean, given that it is below the 50 threshold.

Adding another layer of analysis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) provides crucial insights. With an MACD value of 0.00038 and a signal value of -0.00081, the MACD line's position above the signal line signifies potential upward momentum in the short term—a bullish indication.

Lastly, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is pegged at 1.2173, almost in line with the current price. The GBP/USD's proximity to this EMA indicates a tussle between the bulls and the bears, with neither side having a clear advantage currently.

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The global market sentiment has continued its bearish performance, displaying mixed signals throughout the day. On Thursday, the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 equity index fell by 36.60 points, closing down 0.85% at $4,278. This downward trend can be attributed to several factors, with one notable element being the disappointment among stock traders.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell failed to meet the dovish expectations regarding the Fed's rate outlook. Powell's inability to provide a more accommodating stance on interest rates has left investors uncertain, potentially resulting in increased volatility in the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip have heightened tensions in the region. Moreover, Israel has initiated missile strikes in Lebanon and Syria, while Egypt has also been impacted by the conflict, notably with the bombing of the Rafah border crossing. Therefore, the news of escalating tensions in the Middle East, marked by Israeli airstrikes and regional conflict, introduces uncertainty that could potentially have a negative impact on the S&P 500.

Fed Chair's Cautious Remarks and Market Expectations

It's worth noting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave somewhat cautious comments while speaking at the Economic Club of New York. He mentioned that the Fed's policies are still somewhat strict, but they're ready to take action if inflation starts to rise again. These statements surprised investors, as they were hoping for a more clearly dovish stance from the Fed.

Notably, markets are currently indicating a 97% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at their next meeting. However, Wall Street is anticipating any hints that the central bank might accelerate future rate cuts, currently projected for the latter half of 2024.

Market Performance: Dow Jones and NASDAQ Decline

In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 250.91 points, representing a 0.75% decrease, and closed at $33,414.17. At the same time, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite saw a nearly 1% drop, with a loss of 128.13 points, ending the day at $13,186.18, marking a 0.96% decrease.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) begins its session at 4277.99, suffering a decline of 1.06% in the past 24 hours. Analyzing its price activity on a 4-hour chart provides key levels that traders should keep an eye on. The pivot point is detected at $4,369, acting as a pivotal juncture for the asset's next movements. For traders looking towards an optimistic turn, immediate resistance looms at $4,404, followed by subsequent barriers at $4,451 and $4,502. Conversely, any downside moves would encounter immediate support at $4,288, with further cushions at $4,216 and $4,172.

When it comes to the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) records a value of 39. This is an indication of a prevailing bearish sentiment, given that any value below 50 is considered as such. Delving into the MACD, the main line has nosedived below its signal counterpart, standing at -5.040 relative to the signal's -0.5900. This formation underscores a potential bearish momentum in the offing. Further accentuating the bearish tones, the price currently trades below the 50 EMA, which stands at $4,346, signifying a short-term bearish trend.

Presently, no distinct chart patterns have manifested to provide further directional clues. However, this can rapidly change as the market evolves.

In synthesis, the SPX is demonstrating a bearish inclination, especially if it remains below the 4319 mark. Conversely, climbing above could indicate a potential shift in market sentiment. In the immediate timeframe, we might anticipate the SPX to gravitate towards testing the resistance at $4,404, with breaches or rebounds here crucial for subsequent price actions.

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During the European session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend, shedding further ground and trading around 1.0575. It retreated from its one-week high of approximately 1.0615, which it had reached the day before. This decline can be attributed to the increased demand for the US Dollar (USD), as buyers flocked to it, putting pressure on the Euro.

However, the downward trend in EUR/USD can be attributed to several key factors, primarily the possibility of an additional interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2023, coupled with the relatively high yields on U.S. bonds. These elements are bolstering the appeal of the US Dollar (USD). Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions are reinforcing the Greenback's status as a safer choice for investors, thereby exerting pressure on the Euro.

Powell's Inflation Stance and High Bond Yields Bolstering USD

It's worth noting that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stated on Thursday that inflation still remains too high. He also emphasized that monetary policy hasn't become excessively restrictive yet. This reaffirms our expectations of another interest rate hike by the end of this year. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year US government bond remains elevated, nearing a 16-year peak and approaching the significant 5% threshold. This robust yield continues to bolster the US Dollar (USD). Furthermore, there is cautious mood in the market, favoring the safe-haven US Dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Geopolitical Concerns and Safe-Haven USD Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict

Moreover, the ongoing concerns about the Israel-Hamas conflict potentially spreading across the broader Middle East are making the entire market nervous. Meanwhile, the recent reports of a Gaza hospital tragedy with hundreds of Palestinian casualties have intensified these worries.

On top of that, there is increasing concern about economic challenges caused by rapidly rising borrowing costs. All of this is making investors less willing to take risks, which is noticeable in the generally weaker mood in the stock markets. As a result, more people are shifting their investments towards traditional safe-haven assets, including the US Dollar.

ECB's Rate Hike Pause and Stagflation Concerns Impacting EUR/USD

Furthermore, financial markets are factoring in the possibility that the European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from further interest rate hikes. This caution arises from concerns about the potential for a more pronounced economic downturn and the looming risk of stagflation, a scenario in which the economy remains stagnant while inflation remains high. The ECB hinted in September that their recent interest rate increase, marking the 10th hike in 14 months to combat inflation, could be the final one.

Moreover, ECB policymakers appeared cautiously optimistic last week, expressing the belief that inflation would gradually return to the 2% target without necessitating further rate hikes. This outlook suggests that the EUR/USD pair is more inclined to continue its downward trend.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair, an instrumental barometer in the foreign exchange market, starts the trading session at 1.05748, witnessing an almost imperceptible decline of -0.04%. Its intrinsic price dynamics are underscored by a pivot point established at $1.0561. Those bullish on the currency pair should monitor the immediate resistance level at $1.0601, followed by $1.0638 and capped at $1.0672. Conversely, potential downside pressures could encounter supports placed at $1.0524, further down at $1.0491, and culminating at the $1.0450 mark.

Delving into the realm of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 54. Typically, any value above 50 leans towards a bullish sentiment, while a figure below this level hints at bearish undertones. The current reading suggests that traders are slightly leaning towards optimism in the near term. On the momentum front, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands slightly below its signal counterpart. This configuration intimates a potential bearish trend on the immediate horizon, urging caution. To further season our analysis, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is poised exactly at $1.0561. With the EUR/USD trading marginally above this figure, it is emblematic of a tepid bullish inclination.

Chart patterns, often the cartographers of market trajectories, are currently inconclusive, pending the emergence of any distinct formations.

In summation, the EUR/USD shows a potential bullish disposition if it remains buoyed above the $1.05617 level. Conversely, breaking below could steer the currency pair into bearish territories. In the short run, our projection is to witness the EUR/USD flirt with the immediate resistance level of $1.0601. Any breach of this threshold might usher in further appreciations.

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Gold prices (XAU/USD) prolonged its winning streak and surged to a near three-month high on Friday. However, the reason for its upward rally can be attributed to concerns surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have heightened the safe-haven demand for gold and contributed to its gains. Furthermore, the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates at their current levels for the second consecutive time in November is seen as another factor driving the non-yielding yellow metal higher for the fourth consecutive day.

Geopolitical Factors Driving Gold Price Surge

As previously mentioned, the price of gold has been steadily rising, reaching a nearly three-month high last Friday. However, this upward trend is primarily attributed to geopolitical risks, which are prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, with gold being a preferred choice. Specifically, the concerns about the potential spillover of the Israel-Hamas conflict into other Middle Eastern countries and its potential impact on the global economy are key factors supporting the increase in gold prices.

It's important to highlight that Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip have escalated tensions in the region. In addition, Israel has launched missile strikes in Lebanon and Syria, and Egypt has been impacted by the conflict due to the bombing of the Rafah border crossing. These ongoing developments are maintaining the demand for gold as a safe-haven investment.

Impact of Federal Reserve and US Treasury Bond Yields on Gold Prices

Moreover, the increasing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for the second consecutive time in November is considered another factor driving the non-yielding gold higher for the fourth consecutive day. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested that, considering the economy's resilience and the tight labor market, the possibility of additional interest rate hikes is under consideration.

Nevertheless, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield reached a new high not seen in 16 years on Thursday, which boosted the US Dollar and garnered buying interest on Friday. The confluence of these heightened US bond yields, slight USD strength, and overbought conditions on hourly charts may potentially curtail further gains for XAU/USD.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the ever-evolving world of commodities, GOLD begins the day priced at $1976.450, experiencing a marginal decline of 0.04% in the past 24 hours. The pivotal price level to observe is notably set at $1,955. Market participants should keep a close watch on an ascending scale of resistance levels: initially at $1,982, followed by $2,001 and culminating at $2,021. On the flip side, downside supports are observed at $1,930, further down to $1,909, and a significant cushion at $1,886.

Diving deeper into the technical tapestry, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers pivotal insights. Standing at a noteworthy 83, it signals that GOLD is currently overbought. Historically, values above 70 tend to caution investors of potential market saturation and prospective price corrections.

Concurrently, the MACD, a crucial momentum indicator, sketches a bullish narrative. This is discerned from the MACD line's ascendancy over the signal line, forecasting an upward movement in the immediate future. Adding nuance to our analysis, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) rests at $1,921.

GOLD trading above this benchmark amplifies a short-term bullish inclination.

From a chartist's perspective, a symmetrical triangle formation commands attention. The recent break above this configuration foreshadows impending bullish momentum.

To encapsulate, while the overarching sentiment for GOLD remains somewhat bearish beneath the $1985 demarcation, a potential breakout above could catalyze a notable appreciation in its valuation. In the ensuing days, we project GOLD to challenge the proximate resistance at $1,982. Should it navigate past this juncture, we might brace for loftier valuations.

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Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has maintained its upward trend and is currently hovering around the critical level of 150.00. However, traders appear cautious about taking strong positions due to investors closely monitoring Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Economic Club of New York. Powell is scheduled to speak at 16:00 GMT, and traders are hoping to gain insights into potential changes in interest rates. Additionally, the market is keeping a close eye on the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) taking action to stabilize the Japanese Yen, which has depreciated to nearly 150.00 against the US Dollar.

Market Expectations and Economic Insights

It's important to note that investors are anticipating Jerome Powell to express support for maintaining higher interest rates over an extended period with the goal of bringing inflation closer to the 2% target. Powell's colleagues have been advocating for keeping interest rates steady within the range of 5.25-5.50%. They believe that the current higher US Treasury yields are sufficient to influence spending and investment.

Hence, the expectation of Jerome Powell supporting prolonged higher interest rates may bolster the US Dollar, potentially leading to an upswing in the USD/JPY currency pair.

During the European trading session, the broad-based US dollar maintained its upward momentum and remained bullish for the day. This trend can be attributed to several factors, including S&P 500 futures showing slight losses, which indicated a preference for lower-risk investments. US stocks declined on Wednesday as the third-quarter earnings season began. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have made investors more cautious about riskier assets, further boosting the US dollar.

The Japanese Yen's Weakness and Intervention Concerns

Investors are watching closely at the Japanese Yen situation if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will address the Yen's drop to nearly 150.00 against the US Dollar. However, any intervention may not be very effective because Yen's weakness results from Japan's strategy of using low-interest rates and injecting money to stimulate the economy. This strategy tends to devalue the Yen in international markets. Even if intervention occurs, its impact may be limited, as the Yen's weakness is fundamentally linked to its economic approach.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY, a currency pair emblematic of two of the globe's powerhouse economies, serves as more than a mere indicator of economic vitality. It's also a gauge of geopolitical strains and global risk sentiment fluctuations. At present, this significant pair is trading at 149.79, marking a slight decrease of 0.07% over the last day. The pivot point, a cornerstone of our analysis, stands at 149.49.

When casting our gaze upward, we identify resistance levels at 149.96, 150.44, and a further hurdle at 150.96. Conversely, support for the pair is found at 149.03, with subsequent cushions at 148.43 and 147.96.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 57. This places it notably above the midpoint of 50, insinuating a gentle bullish sentiment without veering into overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offers a slightly more cautionary tale, subtly suggesting a bearish sentiment as it lies just beneath the signal line.

Further buoyancy comes from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which is marked at 149.45. With the pair's price hovering above this level, it appears the winds of a short-term bullish trend are blowing.

In terms of chart patterns, we're observing a pronounced upward channel, indicating an inclination towards buying. Such a pattern typically signals robust buying momentum, and the implication here is a potential continuation of the uptrend, contingent on the respect of the channel's lower boundary.

Drawing conclusions from the assorted indicators and chart patterns, the sentiment leans bullish for as long as the pair remains above the pivotal 149.49 level. A dip beneath this could see traders donning a more conservative hat. In the short-term trajectory, the USD/JPY looks poised to possibly challenge the 150.44 resistance, buoyed by the prevailing buying sentiment.

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