Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session, the EUR/USD pair struggled to make significant gains and mostly hovered around the mid-1.0500s. However, the reason behind this was the growing belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might tighten its policies further, causing US Treasury bond yields to rise.

This, in turn, strengthened the US Dollar (USD) and weighed on the EUR/USD pair. Moreover, the possibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) postponing any additional interest rate hikes also weighed on the pair. On the flip side, a general risk-on sentiment in the market limited the demand for the safe-haven US Dollar, providing some support to the EUR/USD pair.

Market Sentiment Boosts EUR/USD, but ECB Rate Cut Speculations Linger

The global market sentiment is rising thanks to better-than-expected Chinese PMI data and the US government passing a temporary funding bill. This positive mood is keeping the US Dollar (USD) from surging and is giving some support to the EUR/USD pair. Conversely, many people think the European Central Bank (ECB) might cut interest rates in the future, keeping the Euro lower.

Recent data suggests that high inflation in the Eurozone might be slowing down, and there's even speculation about the Eurozone economy shrinking in the coming months. This has led to doubts about further ECB rate hikes, especially after the latest consumer inflation figures dropped from 5.3% to 4.5% in September.

US Dollar Strength Amid Fed's Tightening and Upcoming Data

The broad-based US dollar is generally strong because most believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep tightening its policies. This makes the EUR/USD pair struggle to go up. The US PCE Price Index, a measure of inflation, increased as expected, showing a 3.5% rise in the past year through August.

However, the Core PCE Price Index, which the Fed prefers, eased slightly to 3.9% in August. Despite this, higher consumer spending and rising gas prices indicate that inflation will remain a concern. This means the Fed will likely stick to its tough stance, keeping interest rates high, which supports the US dollar and higher bond yields.

Looking ahead, traders seem cautious to place any strong bids as they are waiting for crucial US economic data coming at the start of the month. The week starts with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. These events will affect the US dollar's value and provide direction for the EUR/USD pair later in the North American session.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD forex pair displays intriguing movements around the 1.0600 level, hinting at a mild bearish tilt. Yet, the stochastic indicator's positive momentum suggests possible bullish activity, targeting the 1.0675 region. However, any decline below 1.0550 could curb bullish prospects. Today's trading might range between 1.0520 support and 1.0660 resistance.

Technically, the 4-hour chart's pivot point is 1.0572, with resistances at 1.0658, 1.0739, and 1.0907; supports lie at 1.0488, 1.0405, and 1.0238. The RSI, at 45, shows neutrality leaning bearish.

The 50-Day EMA stands around 1.06082, potentially indicating the market's short-term trend. A notable downward trendline presents resistance at 1.0600; breaching this could change momentum. In summary, EUR/USD's short-term trajectory hinges on the 1.0600 mark, with a potential move towards the 1.0658 resistance if bullish momentum continues.

Daily Price Outlook

During this European session on Friday, the USD/CAD currency pair experienced a resurgence in buying interest, successfully putting an end to its two-day losing streak. However, this uptick in momentum was due to the weakening of Crude Oil prices, which undermined the canadian dollar and acted as a supportive factor for the USD/CAD pair. Simultaneously, the US Dollar received a boost from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, further contributing to the pair's upward movement. Looking ahead, traders approached the market cautiously, refraining from taking strong positions, as they awaited crucial economic data releases, including the US Core PCE Price Index and Canadian GDP figures.

Crude Oil Price Drop and Its Impact on USD/CAD Pair

It is worth noting that the crude oil price dropped below the one-year high it had reached the previous day. This decline in oil prices is having an impact on the Canadian dollar, which tends to move in sync with oil, and it's giving a boost to the USD/CAD pair. However, the reason behind this fall in oil prices is the anticipation that Russia and Saudi Arabia may increase their oil production. This expectation is overshadowing the positive outlook for increased oil demand from China during its Golden Week holiday. As a result, traders are becoming less confident about the prospects of oil prices rising, particularly following this week's nearly 8% surge from the mid-$88.00s.

US Dollar Strength Supports USD/CAD Pair

Another factor boosting the USD/CAD pair is the overall strength of the US Dollar (USD). Investors are overlooking somewhat lackluster US economic data from Thursday and are instead focusing on the Federal Reserve's efforts to prevent the USD from declining. Just last week, the central bank warned that persistent inflation in the US might lead to at least one more interest rate hike before the year's end.

Looking forward, all eyes are on the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. This data will influence market expectations regarding the Fed's next moves, impacting USD demand and providing fresh momentum to the USD/CAD pair. Traders on Friday will also be watching the monthly Canadian GDP figures and the dynamics of oil prices for short-term trading opportunities.

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD currency pair has initiated a downward trajectory, exerting pressure on the pivotal support level at 1.3480. In light of this movement, it is prudent to remain neutral until a clearer directional signal emerges, which could be ascertained through either a breach of the aforementioned support or a surpassing of the 1.3520 resistance level.

It's crucial to underscore that if the support is compromised, it could pave the way for the currency pair to revert to a bearish trajectory, targeting subsequent levels at 1.3400 and then potentially 1.3359. Conversely, if the pair manages to overcome the resistance, it could potentially signify the rejuvenation of a bullish trend, with the next significant objective positioned at 1.3585.

For today's trading activities, the anticipated range is demarcated between the support at 1.3410 and the resistance at 1.3560. The prevailing sentiment for the day remains neutral.

Daily Price Outlook

The global markets have been gaining momentum and rebounded on Friday, signaling a recovery for major US indices. The S&P 500, a key US stock gauge, turned around on Friday, gaining nearly 0.60% and settling just below $4,300. Although, this was a relief after a more than 5.0% drop from its September peak of around $4,540. Other major indices followed suit, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising 116 points to $33,666.34 (0.35%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surging over 0.80% to $13,201.28.

As we all are well aware, the month of September has been challenging for stocks due to recession and government shutdown concerns, but the pause in selling and Treasury yield hikes allowed for this rebound, ahead of the critical US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release on Friday.

US Dollar Strength and Federal Reserve Focus

Investors are keeping a close eye on the strength of the US Dollar (USD). Despite lackluster US economic data on Thursday, their primary focus is on the Federal Reserve's efforts to support the USD. Just last week, the central bank cautioned that ongoing inflation in the US could lead to another interest rate hike before the year's end. This highlights the significance of the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index release. It will shape market expectations about the Fed's future actions, influencing demand for the USD and giving new impetus to various currency pairs.

Upcoming US PCE Inflation Measure and Market Expectations

Looking forward, the focus is on the upcoming US PCE inflation measure, expected to hold steady at 0.2% for August. This data is critical as it helps shape market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future moves. The Fed is keenly watching inflation, and its actions can impact the value of the US Dollar (USD) and, in turn, influence the broader financial markets.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

When conducting a technical analysis of the S&P500 for September 29, it's crucial to consider several key factors. The chart timeframe under scrutiny is 4 hours, with the pivot point being established at $4365.

In terms of resistance, there are three primary levels to observe: immediate resistance at $4420, followed by the next resistances at $4519 and $4569.

Conversely, support levels are delineated at $4269, with subsequent support points at $4217 and $4122. Analyzing technical indicators provides deeper insights.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 43, which hints at a slightly bearish sentiment since an RSI value below 50 typically signifies a bearish market stance.

In the MACD readings, a value of 7 and a signal of -26 were recorded. Interestingly, the MACD line's position above its signal line suggests potential bullish momentum.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is at $4360, and since the price is marginally above this point, a short-term bullish trend can be inferred. Chart patterns further reveal a Fibonacci Retracement, with the 38.2% level pinpointed at $4325.

This level's breach, in either direction, could offer clues about the asset's forthcoming trajectory.

In the short term, it's anticipated that the S&P500 will endeavor to test the resistance stationed at $4420.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) has managed to stop its four-day losing streak, which had pushed it down to a near seven-month low of around $1,858-1,857 on Thursday. However, the declining US bond yields played a key role by pulling the US dollar back from its recent 10-month high. This, in turn, provided a boost to the precious metal. Furthermore, the looming threat of a US government shutdown on October 1, coupled with ongoing concerns about China's struggling property market, have further bolstered the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Factors Behind Recent USD Decline and Gold's Support

As we mentioned above, the broad-based US dollar has been losing some of its traction, and there are a few key reasons behind this. One significant factor is the retreating US bond yields, which have pulled the USD down from its recent 10-month high. This has, in turn, provided support to the price of gold.

Another factor influencing the USD's recent decline is the repositioning of trading positions in anticipation of the US PCE Price Index. This index, particularly its core measure, plays a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve's understanding of inflation. Notably, the outcomes of this data can significantly impact expectations regarding the Fed's upcoming policy decisions, and this, in turn, has implications for the USD's performance.

Anticipating September Manufacturing PMI

Looking forward, investors are keeping a close eye on the Manufacturing PMI report for September, set to be released on Monday. This report will provide important insights into the state of the factory sector. Expectations are that the PMI data will indicate the 11th straight month of contraction in factory activity.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The price of gold has persistently declined, successfully breaching the $1,873.50 mark and culminating in a daily close below this threshold.

This trajectory has enabled it to reach our revised target of $1,860.00, and projections indicate a sustained downtrend, potentially touching new lows at $1,839.00 and extending to $1,810.00.

Given the prevailing conditions, the bearish sentiment is anticipated to dominate the foreseeable future, bolstered by the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's worth noting that a breakthrough above $1,873.50 could curtail the anticipated drop, prompting short-term recuperative endeavors.

Today's trading is predicted to oscillate between the support level of $1,845.00 and the resistance at $1,880.00.

Daily Price Outlook

During the European session, the USD/JPY currency pair made a modest retreat as it tried to break the important 150.00 resistance level on Thursday. This move aligns with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which saw some profit-taking after hitting a fresh 10-month high at 106.80. Early in the Asian session, USD/JPY rose to 149.50, benefitting from higher Treasury yields, positive US economic data, and a cautious mood among investors. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 106.65, its highest point since November. Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.60%, its loftiest level since 2007.

US Durable Goods Orders Rebound, Impacting USD and JPY

According to the US Census Bureau's report on Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders in August rebounded, increasing by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) after a 5.6% drop in the previous report, defying expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, also performed better than expected, rising by 0.4% m/m against a forecasted 0.1% increase. Moreover, Core capital goods orders saw a notable rise of 0.9%, surpassing the market consensus of 0% following a previous 0.4% drop.

This data prompted a stronger US Dollar (USD) performance, weighing on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Investors remain cautious amid concerns of prolonged high-interest rates and a potential US government shutdown, although Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech could moderate the USD's gains if it takes on a less hawkish tone.

Potential Bank of Japan Intervention Could Strengthen Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen might get stronger due to potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has emphasized that they are ready to take action if the foreign exchange market becomes too volatile. He also mentioned that they are closely watching currency movements. In Japan, Suzuki expressed his worry about the currency exchange rate and stressed the need for quick action. This cautious stance from Suzuki has made traders cautious as well, especially those considering bullish positions on the USD/JPY pair.

Looking ahead, investros are keeping an eye on important economic indicators this week, such as the US weekly Jobless Claims, second-quarter GDP revision, and Pending Home Sales data. At the end of the week, focus will shift to the Core PCE Price Index, a key measure of consumer inflation favored by the Fed, set to be released on Friday.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has sustained its upward trajectory, approaching our newly-set target of 150.00. This momentum is consistently underpinned by the EMA50, amplifying the prospects of an enduring bullish stance in both intraday and short-term contexts. It's worth noting that breaching the aforementioned level could further propel the bullish momentum, targeting successive key levels at 151.00 and subsequently 151.85.

Our forecast remains bullish for the forthcoming sessions, contingent upon the pair not descending and sustaining below the 148.40 mark.

Today's projected trading boundaries are delineated between a support at 148.70 and a resistance at 150.20.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, the AUD/USD pair failed to gain any positive traction and slipped below the 0.6350 mark. This decline coincided with the release of the Retail Sales report for August, which showed a modest 0.2% growth, falling short of the expected 0.3% increase. Adding to the downward pressure, the US Dollar continued to strengthen, driven by higher US Treasury yields and positive economic indicators. These factors combined to weigh down on the AUD/USD pair.

Australian CPI Rebound and AUD Challenges

It's important to highlight that Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in August, primarily due to an increase in energy prices. This uptick in inflation has stirred up expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Surprisingly, though, the Australian Dollar (AUD) didn't perform well despite these encouraging CPI figures.

Notably, the AUD is currently facing downward pressure, largely because of a risk-off sentiment in the market. Investors are growing more risk-averse, which has had a dampening effect on the currency's performance. Furthermore, the declining prices of commodities have been a significant factor holding back the AUD/USD pair from making substantial gains.

US Dollar Strengthens Amidst Positive Economic Developments and Fed Statements

Across the ocean, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its impressive rally, reaching its highest point since December. However, this surge in the US Dollar can be attributed to some positive economic developments in the United States and robust performance of US Treasury yields, which are breaking records. Further adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding the USD are the confident statements coming from Federal Reserve (Fed) board members. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, has hinted at the possibility of future interest rate hikes. However, he has also left the door open for rates to remain unchanged if rate cuts are delayed even further.

Hence, the strengthening US Dollar due to robust economic factors and potential interest rate hikes could put downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Global Economic Concerns and US Data Awaited: Impact on Currency Markets

Another factor putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair is the concerning situation in China. Evergrande, the world's most heavily indebted property developer with over $300 billion in debts, is grappling with a severe crisis. The chairman of the company is even under police scrutiny, adding to the overall uncertainty.

Traders are also closely monitoring the upcoming release of the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized, which is expected to remain at 2.1%, scheduled for Thursday. On Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge for consumer inflation, is anticipated to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair exhibited a distinct downtrend, nearing our initial forecasted target of 0.6330. We project a continued bearish momentum with an aim to reach the subsequent level at 0.6275. This outlook is underpinned by the bearish pressure exerted by the EMA50.

It's imperative to note that the persistence of this bearish trend hinges on the price maintaining its position below the 0.6400 mark. For today's trading landscape, we anticipate a range between a support level at 0.6300 and a resistance threshold at 0.6400.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the ongoing risk-off mood in the market, gold prices (XAU/USD) have continued their downward trajectory, failing to find support. However, this decline can be attributed to the bullish US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields, both of which have made gold appear less attractive to investors. On the flip side, the risk-off sentiment in the financial markets, driven by concerns about China's troubled real estate sector and the looming possibility of a US government shutdown, has prompted some investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe haven for their investments. Hence, this shift in sentiment is considered one of the key factors that may help gold price to limit its declines.

Gold's Challenges Amidst Fed Expectations and Economic Reports

It is worth noting that many people are assuming that the Federal Reserve could pose challenges for the gold prices. However, this belief arises from the idea that if the Fed adopts a more restrictive monetary policy, it could lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and an increase in bond yields, both of which exert downward pressure on gold price.

Moving on, traders are awaiting the release of a key inflation indicator, the US Core PCE Price Index, scheduled for Friday. This data will provide clear understandings into the Fed's potential actions regarding interest rates. Furthermore, economic reports like the US Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims have the potential to impact the performance of the US dollar. Consequently, the overall sentiment in the financial markets will play a key role in shaping short-term trading opportunities for gold.

Market Concerns and Economic Factors Impacting Gold

Moreover, investors have been growing increasingly concerned about a couple of significant factors that are putting pressure on gold. Firstly, there are worries surrounding China's property market and the rising costs of borrowing, both of which are acting as barriers for gold's upward movement. Adding to this, the recent hawkish comments made by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are raising expectations that the Federal Reserve might implement at least one more interest rate hike before the year's end. Furthermore, the release of better-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders data suggests that the Fed is likely to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Thus, the hawkish Fed comments and strong economic data can put further pressure on gold prices.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.

Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.

For today, the anticipateThe gold price has stabilized at the $1873.50 mark following a pronounced downturn experienced the previous day. It's anticipated that should this level be breached, we could see further downward momentum targeting the $1860.00 mark, followed by the $1845.00 threshold.

Given this context, a bearish trajectory is projected for the near term. However, it's pivotal to note that any inability to move below the $1873.50 level could curtail this decline, potentially initiating a bullish adjustment with objectives set at the $1890.00 and subsequently the $1900.00 marks.

For today, the anticipated trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.d trading range is delineated between a support at $1855.00 and a resistance at $1890.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite a risk-off sentiment in the market, gold is not finding much support as a safe-haven asset. Gold price (XAU/USD) has failed to stop its three-day losing streak and dropped to its lowest point since August 22. This decline marks the sixth negative move in the past seven days, with the price falling below the $1,900 mark. However, the main reason behind this downward trend appears to be the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which is strengthening the US dollar and weighing on the value of gold. In the meantime, the weaker risk tone fails to support the safe-haven XAU/USD.

US Dollar Strength and Its Impact on Gold Prices

The broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction and remained well-bid, reaching its highest value in 10 months. However, this surge comes after the Federal Reserve hinted that they plan to keep interest rates higher for a longer time, making the dollar more attractive. Although, this has not been good news for gold prices, which have taken a hit. It is worth recalling that Fed officials mentioned the probability of another interest rate hike by year-end, which has fueled this upward trend.

At the same time, the growing anticipation of higher interest rates has caused the yield on the 10-year US government bond to climb to levels not witnessed since 2007. This development has pushed down gold prices because investors are turning to assets that offer higher returns, which makes gold less appealing in comparison.

Gold's Unusual Behavior Amid Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators

Despite the cautious mood in the market, gold is not getting its usual boost as a safe-haven asset. However, the latest data from the US shows that in September, consumer confidence hit a four-month low. This drop is causing concerns because it suggests that consumers are feeling the pressure of high inflation and rising interest rates.

Furthermore, the ongoing worries about a possible real estate crisis in China, the world's second-largest economy, are making investors more cautious about taking risks with their investments. These global worries are breaking the usual pattern where gold tends to do well during uncertain times. Investors are adjusting to these complex factors, and it's reshaping the financial landscape in unexpected ways.

Looking ahead, gold traders are keeping an eye on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key measure for consumer inflation used by the Fed. This Friday, the annual figure is expected to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%. Traders will use this information to identify trading opportunities and make decisions regarding gold prices.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The price of gold decisively surpassed the $1913.15 mark, stabilizing below it, and has now approached the $1900.00 threshold. This strengthens the interim bearish outlook, setting sights on potential descents to $1890.00, followed by a further decline to the $1875.00 mark.

Given this trajectory, we anticipate a continued decline in the forthcoming sessions, bolstered by the downward momentum exhibited by the EMA50. It's pivotal to highlight that any breach of the $1913.15 level would negate this bearish perspective, prompting the gold price to initiate intraday recovery maneuvers.

For today, the projected trading span is set between a support of $1880.00 and a resistance at $1913.00. The prevailing trend for the day is anticipated to be bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its five-day losing streak and remained well offered around below 1.2150 mark as investors are worried that the UK's economy might go into a recession. This is mainly because the job market is not doing well, and people are not spending much money. It is worth recaling that the Bank of England was supposed to raise interest rates to control inflation, but now they might not do that, which could make prices go up even more.

Furthermore, the US dollar is performing strongly, further contributing to the GBP/USD decline. The Federal Reserve in the US is being cautious with its monetary policies, which is boosting the strength of the US dollar. Traders are closely watching for any changes in the UK's GDP data, but it's expected to remain stable.

BoE's Rate Pause Adds Pressure on GBP/USD Amid Economic Concerns

It's important to highlight that the Bank of England surprised everyone by halting its planned interest rate increases due to worries about the UK's struggling economy and rising uncertainty about inflation. The spike in global oil prices is also driving up energy costs, which could worsen inflation and possibly lead to a challenging situation called stagflation.

Investors are concerned about the global economy and the possibility of higher interest rates. In the UK, weak demand has led to job cuts by companies, even though wages are still rising, keeping inflation a concern. Despite strong wage growth and persistent inflation, the BoE is more focused on economic stability, as seen in its recent decision to pause rate hikes. Therefore, this unexpected move by the Bank of England has put pressure on the GBP/USD currency pair.

Impact on GBP/USD Pair Amid Strong US Dollar and Hawkish Federal Reserve

Despite mixed US economic data, the US dollar is strengthening. While US Consumer Confidence slipped in September, Building Permits and the House Price Index showed positive signs in August and July. The US dollar's resilience is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, boosting US Treasury yields, which are near a 14-year high at 4.51%. Traders are watching upcoming reports like US Durable Goods Orders and the Core PCE Price Index, expected to ease slightly from 4.2% to 3.9%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 106.30, its highest since last December. The Federal Reserve aims for a 25 basis point rate hike by year-end and rates above 5% next year, putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair as the robust US dollar outweighs lackluster US economic data.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair has stabilized around the 1.2155 mark since this morning. As long as the price remains below the 1.2210 threshold, the bearish outlook continues to be the predominant forecast for the foreseeable future. This perspective is reinforced by the negative influence exerted by the EMA50. It's worth noting that our anticipated targets commence at 1.2135 and, upon surpassing this, extend to 1.2030.

For today, the projected trading range lies between a support of 1.2050 and a resistance of 1.2200.

Daily Price Outlook

During the European session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair failed to stop its losing streak and experienced a significant decline, dropping to around 1.0550, the lowest point since March 16. However, this marked a clear bearish phase for the pair. However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the bullish US dollar, which was backed by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Consequently, the USD gained ground against major currencies, including the Euro. On the flip side, the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a dovish approach regarding rate hikes, which weighed down the Euro. This dovish stance contributed to the potential for further losses for the EUR/USD pair.

Factors Driving the Strength of the US Dollar and its Impact on EUR/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction and is currently near a 10-month high. However, this surge is primarily driven by the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for the future. The Federal Reserve recently hinted at the possibility of raising interest rates again within this year due to concerns about persistent inflation. Another factor that has been boosting the US dollar is the tendency of investors to seek safety in it during uncertain times. This behavior further adds downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Factors Influencing EUR/USD Pair and Key Events to Monitor

Apart from this, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently hinted at maintaining low interest rates, which was seen as another key factor that has been weighing on the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, the ECB revised down its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in 2024 and 2025, indicating a slowdown in potential rate hikes. Moreover, there's also a growing discussion about a contraction in the economy later in the year, suggesting that the ECB's tightening policy might have reached its peak. All these factors has been pushing the EUR/USD pair down.

Looking ahead, traders are watching the German Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders, German inflation data, and final US economic growth numbers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and US price index at week's end will be key events to watch.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair demonstrates an enhanced bearish tendency, progressively nearing our anticipated target of 1.0515. We project the persistence of this negative trajectory, aiming for further declines towards the 1.0440 zone.

Within the context of the bearish channel depicted on the chart, and backed by the downward pressure from the EMA50, the bearish outlook remains pertinent for the foreseeable future.

It's crucial to underscore that maintaining levels below 1.0635 is a primary prerequisite to realize these targets. Today's projected trading band spans from a support at 1.0470 to a resistance at 1.0620, with the prevailing sentiment being bearish.